By Rebecca L. Grant, Ph.D., Vice President, Lexington Institute.
March 11, 2025 – Ukraine fields high-tech weapons that rely on US technology and missiles to stay up to date
Zelenskyy needs to Docusign that minerals deal right now.
Zelenskyy’s stubbornness is about to leave Ukraine’s front lines and cities naked to the Russians. Worst case, the war goes from static front lines to another attempted sweep toward Kyiv by Russia (backed up, as ever, by China.) Read here and full text below.
While Ukraine’s forces are well-supplied with artillery, armored vehicles and drones from the U.S. and NATO, all these systems live on fresh software updates. This is the modern battlefield: you don’t fight without constant tech refresh for operations and for maintenance. Not to mention space surveillance, and the crucial cyber protection NATO has extended to Ukraine since the war began.
Given those realities, President Donald J. Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth can immediately turn off these six systems.
The M142 HIMARS, a U.S.-made multiple launch rocket system, is the crown jewel of Ukraine’s artillery for hunting Russians at longer ranges. While Ukraine can still use those systems, the link to updated targeting strategies and maintenance vanishes without U.S. aid. Heck, even the tech manuals are all electronic these days.
Ukraine’s F-16s. Last summer, the Air Force’s 68th Electronic Warfare Squadron worked with Denmark and Norway at a NATO ally laboratory to update the electronic warfare subsystems on Ukraine’s F-16s, and fine-tune them for the Russian air defense threat. It took a mix of seasoned experts and bright young engineers. “If not us, then who. We’re the best people to do this,” the 68th EWS chief engineer said at the time. Of course, the Russians change their electronic warfare tactics often, zapping out energy on different frequencies. Without constant updates, Ukraine’s F-16s won’t function at their peak. And you can forget about more pilot training slots for Ukraine’s F-16 pilots if U.S. aid stops.
Patriot air defenses. Germany, the U.S. and the Netherlands have all donated Patriot batteries or launchers and it’s been a big success. Patriot is a terminal intercept system used against missiles, aircraft and drones and the Ukrainians have taken out Russian hypersonic Khinzal missiles. Of course, this depends on constant updates to the integrated battle command systems that link radars and operators – and on missile resupply, such as the batch of
retired PAC-2 missiles sent to Ukraine in January. Beyond this, air defense work best when cued by multi-domain systems providing what the military calls “persistent coverage.” I doubt Ukraine can do that by themselves.
Black Sea defenses. One of the biggest strategic victories for Ukraine has been wiping out 40% of Russia’s Black Sea fleet and forcing Russia’s naval command to move out of their base at Sebastopol, Crimea. That’s huge. However, ruling the Black Sea took U.S. coastal Harpoon missiles and unmanned surface vessels and quite a bit of naval tactics coaching, all now in jeopardy.
Switchblade killer drones. The Switchblade is a loitering munition that can be carried in a backpack then launched against Russian targets. Developed for the U.S. in Afghanistan, Switchblades were in the first batch of aid to Kyiv. Last October, a deal was set up with maker Aerovironment to manufacture Switchblade in Ukraine but expect all co-production deals to freeze under the new policy.
SATCOM terminals and services. Apparently, Ukraine has benefitted from some help in space, and not just from Elon Musk. The conflict in Ukraine has made it clear space is fundamental to modern war; Chief of the Space Force General Chance Saltzman told the Wall Street Journal awhile back. Last December, he reminded everyone that when Russia invaded Ukraine, “one of their opening moves was a cyberattack against a ground station data network.” Sounds to me like the U.S. has been guarding the space domain in a way that has helped Ukraine.
Don’t forget the Russians are big cyber warriors and ongoing U.S. contractor support is essential to keep Ukraine’s day-to-day systems running. When Putin’s invasion began, Russia shot cruise missiles at Ukraine’s government data center and launched “wiper” attacks on computer networks. Fortunately, Ukraine had already disbursed its digital infrastructure in the cloud, with an assist from Microsoft and others in the tech sector, according to Microsoft President Brad Smith. With DOGE reviewing IT contracts, that could get sticky.
I could go on. The fact is Ukraine cannot fight even a defensive war without the range of support from drones to nuclear protective equipment. All this, and more, is part of the security guarantee fabric the U.S. and NATO have extended to Ukraine. Zelenskyy is doing his soldiers no favors if he gives this up.
This article was originally published on the Lexington Institute: 7 Combat Systems Ukraine Could Lose Without a Trump Deal on Aid (From FOX News) | Lexington Institute
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