Issue Briefs
Afghanistan’s Descent into Extremism: The Alarming Rise of Militant Networks in Taliban-Controlled Territory
By Dr. Nishakant Ojha,
NEW DELHI – June 10 ,2025 – Since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, the country has once again become a critical epicentre for global terrorism. Despite assurances in the Doha Agreement, the Taliban has failed to sever ties with transnational extremist networks. Instead, Afghanistan has been transformed into a fertile ground where militant groups regroup, recruit, and reassert influence across South and Central Asia.
This investigative analysis maps the alarming evolution of extremist dynamics in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan—from the emergence of foreign-led training facilities to regional destabilization and international security consequences.
1. Foreign Fighters and the Rise of ‘Muhajir Tactical’
A New Jihadist Command Hub
One of the most dangerous developments in post-2021 Afghanistan is the establishment of a paramilitary training base known as Muhajir Tactical, reportedly led by Syrian jihadist commander Ayoub Muhajir. Located in an undisclosed Afghan province, this facility serves as a key site for military training, ideological indoctrination, and inter-group coordination among extremist outfits.
Multi-National Composition and Tactical Training
Fighters from al-Qaeda, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Uyghur extremist factions such as ETIM, and Jamaat Ansarullah (Tajikistan) are being trained under Muhajir’s command. The camp is said to include:
· Small arms and insurgency training ranges
· Improvised explosive device (IED) labs
· Encrypted communications and surveillance systems
The facility signals a transition from fragmented terror cells to a centralized insurgent infrastructure—under the de facto protection of the Taliban.
2. A Sanctuary for Extremism: Taliban’s Broken Promises
Persistent Ties with Al-Qaeda and ISIS-K
While the Taliban claims to distance itself from groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS-K, independent watchdogs and UN reports indicate otherwise. Al-Qaeda remains deeply embedded in provinces such as Ghazni, Laghman, Parwan, Uruzgan, and Panjshir, where it maintains training camps and logistical hubs (UNSC, 2024; FDD, 2024).
Administrative Support to Extremists
Disturbingly, reports reveal that al-Qaeda operatives have received identity cards from Taliban authorities, granting them safe passage and operational freedom—evidence of Taliban complicity and administrative support.
Violation of the Doha Agreement
These developments blatantly violate the 2020 Doha Agreement and reflect the Taliban’s refusal to uphold international counterterrorism norms, allowing Afghanistan to become a breeding ground for global jihadist consolidation.
3. Regional Flashpoints: Pakistan, China, and Iran at Risk
Pakistan: Architect of Terror, Now Crushed by Its Own Creation
For years, Pakistan played a dangerous double game—arming jihadist proxies, exporting terror to neighbours, and masquerading as a victim on the global stage. But the monster it bred is now devouring its maker. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), once covertly backed to serve Islamabad’s regional interests, has turned its guns inward, unleashing a reign of terror that has plunged the country into chaos. With over 2,500 terror-related deaths in 2024 alone, Pakistan is witnessing the violent collapse of its own terror architecture.
Islamabad’s expectations of Taliban loyalty have evaporated. Instead of restraining the TTP, the Taliban offers sanctuary and silence, exposing Pakistan’s diminishing influence in Kabul. The Durand Line is now a corridor of blood, and the same border Pakistan once manipulated is now bleeding it dry. Its once-prized “strategic assets” have morphed into existential liabilities—attacking security forces, destabilizing border provinces, and pushing Pakistan to the brink of implosion.
The deep state’s delusion—that it could control jihadist firepower without being burned—has failed spectacularly. Pakistan is no longer a terror exporter with plausible deniability; it is a collapsing stage where state and insurgent violence collide. Diplomatically isolated, economically crumbling, and under siege from the very forces it unleashed, Pakistan is falling into the grave it dug for others. It stands today not as a victim of terrorism, but as a textbook example of a state consumed by the extremist ideology it once nurtured for power. The fallout is not just national—it is a regional time bomb.
China: The Uyghur Militancy Threat – Caught in Its Own Strategic Web
China’s calculated engagement with the Taliban regime was built on the belief that economic incentives and diplomatic recognition would buy silence on Uyghur militancy. But that gamble is now unraveling. The resurgence of Uyghur extremist groups, particularly the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP)—both of which are reportedly training at advanced camps like Muhajir Tactical—is emerging as a direct and growing threat to China’s internal security and geopolitical ambitions.
Xinjiang, already a powder keg due to Beijing’s repressive surveillance state and mass internment of Uyghur Muslims, now faces the risk of being reignited by foreign-trained insurgents. These militants are not merely ideological actors; they are increasingly well-armed, tactically trained, and connected to transnational jihadist networks with operational sanctuaries in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. For China, this is a strategic nightmare—a blowback of its own soft-touch diplomacy with the Taliban and muted response to Afghanistan’s descent into extremism.
The implications are vast. Militants targeting Xinjiang could also strike at critical chokepoints of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), including in Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan. Attacks on CPEC infrastructure, already threatened by Baloch and Sindhi separatists, would now gain a new jihadist dimension. Likewise, parts of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) across Central Asia and beyond are exposed to radical elements emboldened by Taliban hospitality.
Beijing’s dream of creating a connected Eurasian trade zone may now backfire into a corridor of instability. The very militant groups China once hoped to sideline through diplomacy and economic outreach are now weaponizing Taliban territory against it. In trying to build roads and rails through volatile terrain without addressing the ideological firestorm brewing underneath, China risks being strangled by its own geopolitical silk threads.
In essence, China—like Pakistan—is learning the hard lesson of statecraft: you cannot buy security from the barrel of jihad. The threat is no longer peripheral. It is coming home, armed and ideologically driven, from the very territory China helped normalize.
Iran: Security and Migrant Concerns
Iran has seen an increase in the deportation of Afghan refugees, driven by economic pressure and fears of radical infiltration. Afghan jihadists are suspected of attempting to infiltrate volatile provinces like Sistan and Baluchestan, raising the spectre of cross-border violence and ideological subversion.
4. Financing Jihad: Gold Mines, Drugs, and the Narco-Terror Nexus
Exploiting Afghanistan’s Natural Wealth
Terrorist groups are diversifying their income streams. Al-Qaeda’s involvement in illegal gold mining in northern Afghanistan has emerged as a major funding source. The gold is trafficked and sold to finance recruitment, training, and cross-regional operations in the Middle East and Africa (Foreign Policy, 2024).
Narcotics as Strategic Revenue
The Taliban-controlled drug trade, especially in heroin and methamphetamine, continues to thrive. These narcotics routes are largely unpoliced, allowing jihadist groups to fund operations while undermining state structures across the region. The result: a dangerous fusion of terrorism and organized crime.
5. Global Counterterrorism Blindspot: Strategic Complacency
Disengagement by the West
Since the chaotic U.S. withdrawal in 2021, the West has largely shifted focus to other global flashpoints such as Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific. This disengagement has created a security vacuum, allowing extremist groups in Afghanistan to regroup without fear of international intervention.
Warnings Ignored
Both NATO and the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED) have flagged Afghanistan’s potential resurgence as a terrorist launchpad. Yet, international responses remain disjointed, underfunded, and diplomatically toothless.
6. India’s Strategic Alarm: A New Era of Asymmetric Threats
Implications for Indian Security
The consolidation of extremist training facilities in Afghanistan, such as Muhajir Tactical, poses an urgent strategic threat to India. The resurgence of TTP could embolden cross-border militancy, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir, while ideological spillovers may affect India’s extended neighbourhood.
Risks to Infrastructure and Influence
India’s regional connectivity initiatives—especially Chabahar Port and the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC)—may be destabilized by the transnational movement of extremists and the Taliban’s refusal to curb them.
Strategic Imperative
New Delhi must recalibrate its approach through:
· Enhanced border surveillance and HUMINT/TECHINT integration
· Stronger bilateral and trilateral counterterrorism alliances
· Investment in regional influence operations and strategic deterrence
Conclusion: A Brewing Storm in the Heart of Asia
Afghanistan’s descent into extremism is no longer a theoretical threat—it is a well-documented and accelerating geopolitical crisis. With the Taliban enabling the entrenchment of foreign fighters and militant groups, and with facilities like Muhajir Tactical expanding unchecked, the region faces a dire future.
Without decisive action, Afghanistan could once again become the launchpad for global terror—echoing the horrors of the pre-9/11 world. The international community, especially regional powers like India, must prioritize a multi-domain, intelligence-driven, and preventive security strategy. Failing to do so risks allowing the world’s next major security threat to mature unchallenge.
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Dr. Nishakant Ojha is a Senior Advisor of the Global Policy Institute in Washington D.C and the Director of the Global Policy Institute, India. He is a globally acclaimed expert in counterterrorism and strategy, who has influenced national security policies, providing strategic defense guidance to multiple allied nations. |