The USA has dismantled Iran’s power projection capabilities, and next comes what Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent calls the “economic asphyxiation.”  John Saucier of the FOX News Rundown explored the lead-up to President Donald J. Trump’s new policy: hitting Iran in the wallet.  Highlights below, and link here.

John Saucier: President Trump, this week announcing a new strategy with Iran, as he declares economic warfare against the country.  The President, who has been unable to come to a deal with a fractured Iranian leadership, is hoping hitting them in the wallet might help finally bring an end to this conflict.

Rebecca Grant: This is also aimed to directly hit the IRGC’s own money and its ability to funnel any remaining funds out to proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, you name it.

John Saucier: It’s a battle of economic will right now, between the United States and Iran, and other countries are getting caught up in it.  President Trump has a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz as he tries to limit, or altogether stop, Iran from selling oil to other places.  So now the question becomes how long can either side hold out?

Rebecca Grant: First of all, this means Iran is not going to be shipping oil out to China and its other customers by the Strait of Hormuz.

John Saucier: Our guest today is national security analyst and Vice President of the Lexington Institute, Dr. Rebecca Grant.

Rebecca Grant: So, all of Operation Economic Fury is unfolding behind the power of the U.S. naval blockade, backed up by the joint force.  Remember the IRGC, they’re the ones who wanted the path to a nuclear weapon, they’re the ones who won’t negotiate, but they are also a business organization. They do a lot of oil selling and smuggling.  So this is also aimed to directly hit the IRGC’s own money, and its ability to funnel any remaining funds out to proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, you name it.  This is a major economic strategy, of course, backed up entirely by what the U.S. military has already achieved against Iran.

John Saucier: I’m glad you mentioned the IRGC.  We’ve learned that there was apparently a back channel between President Trump and IRGC negotiators.  That’s something the Revolutionary Guard is denying, but President Trump blatantly did talk about it.  Do you believe that the President is negotiating with the IRGC and different other groups in Iran?  Is this why this negotiation has been so difficult and fractured?

Rebecca Grant: If you’re asking me who I believe, I’m gonna go with President Trump on this one.  You know, we’ve often had a type of back channel to Iran.  We’ve seen this over the decades.  So I believe that does remain open. But you’re right, it’s the fracture that’s the problem and don’t forget these IRGC characters, their leader, the head of the National Security Council, even the Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, even President Pezeshkian: they all served as young men in that horrible Iran-Iraq war back in the 1980s, which was total war and extremely bloody and intense.  They are a very tough group, and that is why I think President Trump has chosen to focus on just locking up any oil sales, and that is something that we haven’t tried to this extent before.  Now, President Trump did through maximum pressure back in 2019 and 2020, driving Iran’s oil sales way, way down from about 2 million barrels a day, down to less than 400,000 barrels per day.  We’re going to try to get to zero here, and see what kind of pressure that exerts on these IRGC thugs.

John Saucier: Okay, so it’s not only stopping Iran from shipping oil out, but it’s stopping other countries that might do business with them.  You mentioned China.  I want to talk about Russia for a moment, because NBC News reported earlier this month that Russia is actually supplying Iran with ammunition, drone components, and other explosives via the Caspian Sea.  Do you put any stock into that report, and if that’s the case, might the United States have a new beef with Russia over this?

Rebecca Grant: The Russians have been active there, and our Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine really said so to Congress back in the springtime.  You know, CENTCOM is able to watch those boats go across the Caspian Sea, and I think what’s difficult here is we think that Russia may have helped Iran upgrade the guidance and loiter targeting of some of the drones.  That said, as you know, Russia’s got its own problems, and they do manufacture Iranian-design drones up in Tatarstan in Russia, and use them against Ukraine.  But let me tell you this: Russia is trying to stir the pot, but they are not going to make a tactical difference versus the incredible might of the U.S. military in Central Command.

John Saucier: Another report that’s come out recently that I’ve been curious to ask you about for a while now, is this idea that the United States is running out of munitions; specifically, these types of missiles that they would shoot up to shoot down other missiles.  President Trump has been asked about this, and he went on to say United States has sort of unlimited supply of munitions.  How do you assess the U.S. stockpile right now, and its capability to fight this war with Iran?

Rebecca Grant: I’m going to go with what Admiral Cooper and Central Command has said.  He said we’re good.  Have we used a lot of munitions?  Yes, but remember there are two categories.  Offensive weapons, like our satellite-guided JDAM bombs, we’re in a really good position with those.  Some of the newest weapons, like our new one-way attack drones, we haven’t built very many of those yet.  Of course, the real concern is with top-tier systems, like Patriot, and we’ve seen we are going to nearly three to four times the production rate.  Companies like Boeing have already built new factories.  They make part of the seeker.  The Patriot supply chain was diversified across defense industry.  Then as you know, we use a lot of other types to down drones, including sometimes a non-kinetic kill, where we use electromagnetic energy to zap a drone’s guidance system.  So, we’ve done a lot, but our $1.5 trillion defense budget invests in a lot more munitions.  We do need to restock, but we are good to carry out any offensive or defensive operations that we need to.  And don’t forget, one way that we guard Europe and our Navy vessels is with our Standard Missiles, yet another family, SM-2, SM-3, SM-6; we’ve got a lot in the munitions locker.

John Saucier: The standoff between the Trump Administration and the Islamic Republic of Iran continues on with no end in sight, as the White House puts more economic pressure on a country which already is dealing with major inflation. We’re on today with our resident weapons expert, Vice President of the Lexington Institute Dr. Rebecca Grant.  She says that despite what you may hear the United States is achieving its objectives in this campaign, but we want to know how much longer is it going to take?  We’ll get into that coming up next.

John Saucier: All right Dr. Grant, let’s talk about the Strait of Hormuz.  This really has been the big bone of contention between the U.S. and Iran, and really all the Gulf states there, throughout this entire war.  The latest reports on the Strait, you get both sides saying something completely different.  President Trump says that we control the Strait of Hormuz.  Iran, they want formal recognition that they actually run the Strait of Hormuz, and there are reports that Iran is openly negotiating with neighboring Oman.  Then President Trump went on to threaten Oman, which happens to be an ally of the United States, so, can you give your assessment of the Strait of Hormuz and how Oman is playing into all this?

Rebecca Grant:  Well, first about Iran, if they controlled the Strait, they’d be selling oil and shipping their tankers through to China.  That is not happening, because it is the U.S. with tactical control.  Now remember, it’s Oman and Iran that share that waterway, most of the radars for guidance were set up by Oman.  The original treaty on that waterway was between Oman and Iran.  So, you want to see Oman in there negotiating.  I’m just going to point out that the USS Abraham Lincoln, our aircraft carrier, made its port call in July in Oman.  Oman is a fantastic ally.  They like to stay out of the spotlight, but I trust them to do the right thing.  I think there is a lot more activity going on in the Strait of Hormuz, there’s a lot more ship oil coming out, with ship-to-ship transfers.  Right now, we have destroyers, two aircraft carriers, and all the land-based air that are helping quite a bit of shipping go through the Strait, whether you see it on the internet trackers or not.  That is territory that is U.S. air and sea dominance, completely.

John Saucier:  The burning question, the big picture question, is why?  Why is this conflict still going on?  You and I first talked about this back in March, when the war really got going. We’re now getting into August, it’s going to be September soon, and this war remains.  Now it’s shaping up to be more of an economic standoff between the United States and Iran, but there have been hostilities, there have been U.S. service members killed, there have been casualties on both sides, and have been a lot of weapons used, a lot of money spent, and a lot of people who are feeling this from countries all over the world. To me, it feels like it’s been a lot longer, especially when I hear things from President Trump saying that Iran has no way to defend itself, its navy is at the bottom of the ocean.  It seems like we went in and attacked them very strongly, but how come this war is still going on and how much longer do you think it is going to last?

Rebecca Grant:  We’ve got 50,000 U.S. service members there, so of course they are on our minds.  But, the two big objectives, no path to a nuclear weapon, and taking away Iran’s power projection capability, are already achieved.  What hasn’t happened yet is breaking that fanatical control by the IRGC.  That will continue to take time, but it has now shifted to Operation Economic Fury, and the blockade.  Now if Iran pops up with some more targets, Admiral Cooper will go ahead and hit them.  He’s got plenty of forces in that region, and big military options are still on the table if strikes are necessary.  But I think what President Trump has decided to do is let the IRGC sweat it out, as they lose money day after day, and as that blockade, that steel wall holds, as we intercept ships.  The USS Boxer amphibious ship, I’m told she’s intercepted nearly a dozen of those Iranian ships herself.  So, I think this is a good place, and remember, big geopolitical consequences, not just for our economy and for America but to make sure that we weaken this China-Russia-Iran axis and that Iran can never be a threat to the Middle East again.

This article was originally published on the Lexington Institute: Economic D-Day for Iran, and What About Munitions? (From the FOX News Rundown) | Lexington Institute

Legal Disclaimer

The Global Policy Institute (GPI) publishes this content on an “as-is” basis, without any express or implied warranties of any kind. GPI explicitly disclaims any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information, images, videos, or sources referenced in this article. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or positions of GPI. Any concerns, copyright issues, or complaints regarding this content should be directed to the author.