Green Economy Tomorrow, Climate Adaptation Now

By Paolo von Schirach

December 6, 2024 – The outcome of the turbulent COP 29 climate gathering which took place in Baku, Azerbaijan prompts a couple of important considerations. One, the world community is not making any considerable progress on its declared goal to engineer a quick transition to non-carbon energy. Two, rich countries are reluctant to hand over billions of dollars to poor countries, so that they can invest in green technologies. Meanwhile, emissions go up, and so do world temperatures.

Green consensus

Until yesterday there was a broad-based agreement (although no unanimity) that our planet is getting progressively warmer due to the cumulative effect of increased greenhouse gases emissions caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Based on this (almost) unarguable factual premise, the environmentalists have been arguing that we are just a few steps away from an irreversible climate apocalypse that will result in the end of life on the planet.

Hard reality

But now we know that getting to a green, decarbonized economy is not an achievable goal, at least not in the next 5 to 10 years. For instance, the European Union, one of the strongest supporters of green energy policies, still relies on oil and gas for about 80 per cent of its energy needs.

While many fully understand the disconnect between lofty green policy goals and the reality of inadequate means to reach them, many policymakers are still very reluctant to openly and publicly admit this, because doing so would amount to heresy, and political suicide. For many others, “Green” is a quasi-religion, associated with virtue. Therefore, how can anyone really say that, based on evidence, “the good” (green energy) does not work as well as advertised, while “the bad” (fossil fuels) still works more effectively?

 There is a better way

Since stopping emissions while ramping up green tech does is not doable, for the moment, the best short- and medium-term course of action must be to invest in adaptation. Applied human ingenuity will generate advanced solutions that will allow humans to live in a world with higher temperatures, as we keep investing in the development and later deployment of truly cost-effective green energy technologies.

For instance, when it comes to different approaches to clean energy, a great deal of work has already gone into designing small nuclear reactors. We are getting close to having them, with some demonstration plants currently under construction. Assuming commercial viability, these small reactors will produce emissions free electricity, while avoiding the high cost and hurdles facing large reactors projects that require a multitude of permits and authorizations. These small reactors can be built quickly, and relatively cheaply, thanks to modular designs. They will be safe, and they will produce a minimal amount of waste. Assuming success and scalability, this technology could be a way to ensure emission free electricity supply.

Adaptation

Regarding adaptation to climate change, consider scaling up vertical urban farming. This proven, commercially viable technology is about growing massive quantities of food in enclosed, extremely high yield environments where we control the temperature, humidity levels, light spectrum, appropriate nutrients, to optimize the growth of vegetables, with no fertilizers, no pesticides, and minimal use of water. In a world in which most people live in cities, growing food right next to consumers will be very cost-effective. It will save energy, since the vegetables do not need to be transported in refrigerated trucks from the farm to the supermarket shelf, while it will spare crops from the vagaries of the changing climate. It will also allow the reforestation of enormous amounts of farmland currently used to grow vegetables.

Protect coastlines

As oceans levels are rising due to melting polar ice, it is possible to protect coastal areas with a combination of restored wetlands, mangroves, new coastal defenses, and other man-made protective barriers. The Dutch have been living in a country largely below sea level for hundreds of years. They have done and are doing this by creatively adapting to their incredibly challenging environment, while developing a modern, innovative economy. We can learn from them and get busy with the construction of effective coastal defenses.

Preserve strong economies

That said, remember that to spend significant sums on effective adaptation, we need healthy, prosperous, innovative economies. Only rich countries will be able to generate the capital necessary to finance new investments in research and development that will lead to innovations in adaptation technologies and hopefully new types of emissions free energy options that will be truly cost effective. However, we shall not have vibrant economies if we continue targeting most industries with taxes and heavy mandates.

Paolo von Schirach is the President of the Global Policy Institute, a Washington DC think tank, and Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Bay Atlantic University, also in Washington, DC. He is also the Editor of the Schirach Report.

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