Issue Briefs
Putin Must Understand: Invading Ukraine Would Be A Historic Mistake For Russia (From 1945)
Daniel Goure
February 10th, 2022
The odds are growing that Russian President Vladimir Putin will make the greatest mistake of his career by invading Ukraine. This is likely to result in the very outcomes that the Kremlin claims it seeks to avoid. A new assault on Ukraine would weaken the Russian government, hurt its economy, over-extend its military, strengthen NATO unity and resolve, cause Washington to increase the U.S. military presence in Europe, and give new impetus to Western military modernization. Were Moscow to seize all of Ukraine, it would actually exacerbate the Kremlin’s sense of vulnerability and feed its determination to defend its conquests even at the price of alienating the West. The U.S. and Europe need to take steps now to make an attack on Ukraine so unattractive that Putin will have an excuse to rein in his imperial ambitions. I have written more here on what can be done to send the Kremlin a very clear message.
The views and opinions expressed in this issue brief are those of the author.
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Daniel Gouré, Ph.D., is a vice president at the public-policy research think tank Lexington Institute. Goure has a background in the public sector and U.S. federal government, most recently serving as a member of the 2001 Department of Defense Transition Team. |