March 05, 2025 – Rare earth minerals, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Zelensky in Munich, the bottling up of Crimea and Putin’s future war plans?    FOX News Rundown’s John Saucier and I talked it all over on a special Evening Edition during the Munich Security Conference. Full clip here and edited highlights below.

Saucier first asked if it felt like in any way Zelensky’s role, or even Ukraine’s role has been diminished, as the United States and Russia tried to end this war?

Grant: Remember that Trump and Zelensky met at the Notre Dame cathedral back in December, so Trump has been in pretty regular communication with Zelensky.  He has at various times assured him that aid and support will continue.  He’s obviously got to keep Ukraine in the game as a strong player, in order to have any hope of really negotiating with Putin.

Saucier next asked about Ukraine’s rare earth minerals.

Grant: This is the big picture of how to get Ukraine back to being a viable economy and viable state after the ceasefire.  If the guns go quiet there’s another angle, and that is we do not want China, who was a big trading partner for Ukraine, to get in there and get access to these rare earths. Ukraine has a lot of lithium as well as a number of other rare earth metals and I think that’s why we saw Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent there this week, trying to put together the economic package, because the reconstruction and rebuilding and reviving Ukraine’s economy is going to be a whole separate deal.

Saucier: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made his way to NATO headquarters in Brussels for the first time, and he suggested that Ukraine shouldn’t expect to go back to their pre-2014 borders; so we’re talking about when they had Crimea, before it was annexed by Russia and other areas as well.  How do you digest those comments?

Grant: Secretary Hegseth had a lot to say, but I will tell you this about Crimea.  It’s not as worth it to Russia as it once was, because Ukraine, with help from NATO, has completely bottled up the Black Sea Fleet, using unmanned surface vessels and coastal defenses that NATO helped them with. That said, you know I personally would like to see NATO membership for Ukraine remain a bargaining chip, and I tell you these are going to be wild and woolly negotiations, positions are going to change a lot, and we’ll just see how it all turns out in the end.

Saucier inquired about priorities at the Munich Security Conference, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President J.D. Vance scheduled to speak with Zelensky.

Grant: Secretary Rubio, what a great job he’s doing, getting the hostage release from Russia, etc.  They will talk with Zelensky – they want to assure him that everybody wants Ukraine to be secure.  But the big thing at Munich is NATO, and the European countries facing down Russian aggression.  There’s an intel assessment out from Denmark that says if the war stops in Ukraine, Russia could launch a local war in six months; they could go after the Baltics up north in a period of two years; or be ready for another large scale war in five years. That’s because Russia is still producing 1500 tanks a year. Russia spent more on defense than Europe did last year, so that’s really the question. We know the Europeans are really worried about Russian aggression and intentions long term, so are they ready to truly beef up NATO security to hold Russia in check?

After three years of war, with so many Russians killed, Saucier asked: “Do you really see them continuing aggression elsewhere after this war in Ukraine wraps up?”

Grant: The only thing that counts is Vladimir Putin, and if he still has a taste for war.   I think he does.  That’s what NATO’s capitals are so worried about, and they need tanks in Poland, they need airpower all along that that thousand mile border, and we really need a strong defense. This is the view of everybody in Europe: Putin still likes to fight, and he’s as dangerous as ever, especially with China backing him up.

Saucier brought up the North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia.

Grant: I’m sure Kim Jong Un is carefully extracting help from Russia on technical aspects of improving North Korean nuclear warheads, missiles, submarines and all of that.  You can bet he’s getting some payback.

The other thing NATO is going to continue to do is to bottle up that Baltic Sea shadow fleet of oil tankers of Russia’s.  NATO’s got some great navies up there, and they’re going to chase the Russians around and inspect the papers of all those crazy tankers.

Saucier: How do you feel about Russia and Ukraine? Do you think both sides are ready to call it quits?

Grant:  It’s so tragic.  Let’s remember this was a war that never should have happened. The last administration left a heck of a mess, with very few good strategic options. Personally, I’d like to see the Russians kicked out of Ukraine; I’d like to see Ukraine in NATO and Ukraine has said that they want to continue to fight.  But in the end, we need to see a healthy, robust Ukraine, and Ukraine at peace, but Russia has got to be contained.  That is non-negotiable.

This article was originally published on the Lexington Institute: Putin Still Has A Taste for War (From The FOX News Rundown) | Lexington Institute

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