By Rebecca L. Grant, Ph.D., Vice President, Lexington Institute.

December 11, 2024 – Meet Orca, an autonomous submarine, nearly the size of an 18-wheeler truck, and the biggest unmanned underwater vehicle in the Navy inventory.

Its technical name is the Extra Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicle. What it’s designed to do is carry out autonomous missions. It has a tremendous capability to go out and lay mines to counter Chinese ships and submarines. Host John Batchelor, Gordon Chang and I discussed Orca’s unique mission in deterring China’s submarine force, and prospects for a renaissance in U.S. Navy shipbuilding. Highlights follow or listen here.

John Batchelor: So, this is a submarine I’m looking at, not a weapon?

Rebecca Grant: That’s right. It’s fully autonomous, with no crew at all; Orca operates with autonomy protocols and also has data links.

The Navy has two Orcas in test in California at their base at Port Hueneme, Naval Base Ventura County.  One has been underway for a while; the other splashed into the water this fall. They’re made down in Huntington Beach, which you think of more for surfing and the California beach lifestyle, but what they’ve got there is an impressive and menacing weapon.

The Navy does have other underwater craft, but this one is much bigger. That’s why the Pacific fleet has asked for it as an urgent capability. Out in the Western Pacific, Orca can start to do some of the jobs normally assigned to the manned submarine fleet.

Orca has what you might call a snap-in center section for the payload area. One of the coolest potential payloads is a system called Hammerhead.

Hammerhead launches a moored mine to the bottom of the sea. It’s basically a modified Mark 54 torpedo that sits there under the water and waits for the tracking and command to launch a torpedo underwater against an enemy submarine.

John Batchelor:  2027 is the jumping-off date for China’s navy. George Marshall said: “Back in 1936, we had the time, we didn’t have the money. Then he said in 1941, we have the money, but we don’t have the time.”

Rebecca Grant: George Marshall is right again. We don’t have the time.

There are very few systems the Navy can buy right now, today, to beef up our inventory. Orca is on the very top of the list of items the Navy could buy now. There are two out there, and the Navy has contract options for five or six more. As CNO Franchetti has said, “China is on a wartime footing.” To my mind, the Navy ought to just take the plunge and do what the Pacific fleet commander wants and buy some more Orcas. That would give the Navy the ability to rush this into the Pacific. I think if George Marshall were here, he’d agree to this right away.

This begins to channel and control more of submarine force. China has about 60 submarines now, and they will go up to 80 in the next decade. The key here is you want the Chinese submarine commander to be afraid to go and operate in certain areas. This includes their handful of nuclear-powered submarines and their six submarines that can launch nuclear weapons. We want those Chinese submarines to be really afraid to get into their launch boxes around the Pacific, and something like Orca can make an immediate difference in pushing back against China’s growing naval power.

Gordon Chang: Regarding 2027, is there a sense of urgency? Is the Navy doing things we can’t see that make the situation much better than it appears from the outside?

Rebecca Grant: Right now, America does have a tremendous undersea advantage over China or over anybody. Orca is just another manifestation of this.

The problem is the Pacific is really big, and China’s fleet is bigger than the U.S. Navy’s combat fleet. To really impose credible deterrence, we have to keep up with the systems that are going to make China think twice. We don’t know exactly what that magic combination is. So, Orca has great potential for conventional deterrence, by bottling up the submarine fleet and doing it in a way that puts fewer U.S. sailors at risk as well.

John Batchelor: Is there a sense of urgency in Congress?

Rebecca Grant: Huge sense of urgency in Congress to two things: one, to oppose China and get American technology back to where it needs to be; and secondly, a big sense of urgency to fix the Navy’s problems.

The Navy just had to ask for $7 billion more to fix some of their nuclear ship-building issues. Congress is furious that the Navy has gotten into this state. They need to produce submarines and nuclear-powered aircraft carriers more quickly.

I think Congress is going to be holding the Navy’s feet to the fire.

It’s time for some hard, rapid business decisions. American shipbuilding is on the verge of a renaissance.  We can see the Navy turn around and start to ramp up, in a way we haven’t seen since the Reagan years, and really deliver this capability. But Congress is going to have to push hard, and the Navy needs strong new leadership, and a lot of backing from the Trump team to get this done.

I’d like to see Elon Musk take a crack at fixing nuclear shipbuilding and greenlighting some of these great drone programs like Orca.

This article was originally published on the Lexington Institute: The U.S. Navy’s Unmanned Orca Anti-Submarine Drone, China And The Pacific (From CBS Radio “Eye on the World” with John Batchelor) | Lexington Institute