By Rebecca L. Grant, Ph.D., Vice President, Lexington Institute.
February 11, 2025 – Oil prices, Ukraine in NATO, the decimation of the Russian military and what about a meeting between President Donald J. Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin? FOX News Radio White House Correspondent Jared Halpern and I talked it all over on the FOX News Rundown, Full clip here, beginning at 12:08 and catch these edited highlights below.
First Halpern played some of Trump’s recent remarks: “President Zelensky would like to have peace, he’s told me that very strongly,” Trump said and “OPEC ought to get on the ball and drop the price of oil and that war will stop right away.”
Then came my turn to react. “Trump is serious about change in the Ukraine war,” I said. “Biden’s policy was, as long as it takes. Trump’s policy is ‘end this war now.’ The thing he’s finding is that there are certain conditions he needs to set to make that happen. The number one condition, already done, is to continue military aid to Ukraine. Next is his second move, and that is to tell Russia that they are going to have to face some consequences, if Putin won’t come to the bargaining table. That of course is the big issue: Putin has not been ready to negotiate.
Halpern asked about sanctions. “There are over 13,000 sanctions and probably more on Russia. I’m all in favor of sanctioning entities and taking the yachts of oligarchs, but I think the sanctions threat is about a longer-term view. For all that the Russian economy has chugged along because of China’s energy purchases, Putin has really missed the boat. He wanted to go into AI. He wanted to have technology advances. None of this is happening, because of the very tailored export restrictions, and so that means that Trump is really threatening Putin with Russia’s future. He is trying to get Putin to say, how do you think you’ll ever get out of this economically? Not this year, but next year and beyond. So, I think this threat of sanctions is to try to get Putin to look at his long -erm interests.
Halpern: Now there’s also pressure now from the President to have OPEC lower oil prices. Russia is not a member of OPEC, right?
Grant: Yes, but they get along very well.
Halpern: Any reduction by OPEC of oil prices would drive down oil prices for Russian oil, right?
Grant: Yes, but it’s very complex because the Europeans have already put limits on Russian oil that goes by sea, so it’s capped at $60 a barrel. Hey, we’d all love to choke off Russia’s oil income, but the fact is none of that will happen without China. Don’t forget Russia is a big participant in the shadow fleet, that may be as much as 20% of the world oil tankers, that move oil surreptitiously, illegally into China. So as long as China’s buying, we’re not going to hurt Russian oil revenues.
Halpern: NATO has said that Ukraine is on an irreversible path to membership.
Grant: Ukraine’s membership in NATO is a bargaining chip. Personally, I would like to see Ukraine in NATO; I think they’ve earned it, I think it’s the right security solution. For Zelensky it’s his number one goal, and of course for Putin, blocking Ukraine’s membership in NATO is his number one goal. NATO membership and the NATO status with Ukraine is going to be a big topic of negotiation.
There could be peace tomorrow and Europe will still have to worry about its own defenses against Russia. They’ll still want to beef up their air defenses, and buy more tanks, because they haven’t forgotten, they all still feel this could happen to them.”
Halpern: Supporters of continuing to provide this military assistance to Ukraine say this is a great investment for the United States, because the Russian military is just getting hammered in this conflict. What is your read on the status of Russia’s military? I mean is it completely decimated to a point that it’s going to take decades to rebuild it and get to the statue that they were prior to the invasion?
Grant: Russia’s military has been hammered. There’s something on the order of 700,000 casualties, between killed and wounded. You can really see the evidence in Syria, where Russia was unable to do anything as the Assad government fell, and lost access to two important bases. That said, Russia has learned some tactical lessons in electronic warfare, and in drone warfare. Russia and Putin will continue military production as long as they can. They’re not going to get to be a qualitatively better military, but they remain a very dangerous military force, and they will for generations.”
Halpern: What about a Putin-Trump meeting? Grant: Both like to be on the world stage. A problem for Putin, of course, is that International Criminal Court indictment. He doesn’t travel at this point. But I expect to see some dialogue between them, at least. I hope that Trump talks a lot to our European allies, Poland key among, them to see what insights and ideas they might have.
Halpern: Would the President sit down with Putin and Zelensky? Grant: He will do whatever it takes, and if that’s what it takes to make a deal, he’ll do it.
This article was originally published on the Lexington Institute: Trump is Serious about Change in the Ukraine War (From the FOX News Rundown) | Lexington Institute