Energy | Areas

However, there are existential defense threats for which the nation is not prepared—existential in the sense that they could make the continued functioning of democratic government within U.S. borders nearly impossible.

These threats get short shrift in national strategy, either because they have never occurred before or because there are no easy remedies. Unfortunately, the vulnerability of the U.S. to the threats could make them attractive options for America’s enemies in the future.

February 3, 2020

Europe’s Dreams

January 13th, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, We heard from Ursula von der Leyen, the new President of the European Commission, that she will lead a “geopolitical” Commission. So, we are led to believe that, under her leadership, there will be deep thinking and strategizing about how to effectively combine the significant European economic, business, investments and military assets so that the EU will play a leading role on the world stage.

January 13, 2020

Raising The Temperature In The Middle East

January 6th 2020- Issue brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, After the unexpected airstrike that killed IRGC General Qassem Soleimani, right outside the Baghdad airport, analysts began speculating what Trump’s end game may be. In other words, is this just an ill-conceived, spur of the moment decision? Or is this targeted assassination of the master mind of all the Iran-led irregular forces operating with impunity in the Middle East part of a carefully orchestrated US “plan”?

January 6, 2020

The Fake Aramco IPO

December 18th 2019- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, There were great expectations about the Aramco IPO. It was announced long ago by Saudi authorities, and then postponed several times. Well, now we know why it took so long, and why in the end the IPO did not take place in New York or London. Indeed, the Saudi government, the sole owner of this energy giant, could not be sure about the response of savvy international investors. Would they really buy shares at a price that implies an overall $ 2 trillion valuation for Aramco? May be not. And so the Saudis, decided to play it safe. They would do this at home, in an environment and with investors they could control. And so they used the Riyadh Tadawul stock exchange (where less than 200 stocks are traded) as the venue for this “historic” IPO.

December 19, 2019

Thanks to Fracking, No Panic in the US After The Attacks on Saudi Oil

September 18, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, The most astonishing consequence of the unprecedented, devastating attack on Saudi Arabia which crippled the Kingdom’s oil production and refining facilities is what did not happen, especially in the USA.

There was no panic in the US or worldwide; no skyrocketing, out of control oil prices. Yes, crude prices went up, significantly; but not in a dramatic way, if you consider that the supplies of Saudi Arabia, the leading world exporter, (along with Russia), have just been cut down by 50%! That 50% represents 5% of total world supply. In an environment where strong demand matched tight supply, this sudden shortfall would be a disaster, especially for the US, along with China the leading oil consumer. But right now world oil supplies are not stretched, notwithstanding steady demand, thanks to the US fracking revolution which added millions of barrels of oil a day to global energy markets. More on this in a moment.

September 18, 2019

Use Small Ball to Help End Washington’s Gridlock

August 15, 2019- Issue Brief by Paul Steidler, Small ball is when a baseball team employs a strategy to grind out a run or two, through sacrifice bunts and other measures. It typically means low-scoring games as teams give up outs for a higher chance of getting a run or two. But low-scoring innings can win games and break teams out of slumps. The 2015 Kansas City Royals won the World Series because they mastered small ball. Exhibit A for a public policy slump in Washington is the current gridlock surrounding the U.S. Postal Service. Since 2009 the Postal Service has been on the Government Accountability Office’s High Risk List of organizations needing major reform. Despite this, a December 4, 2018, Presidential Task Force report, and strong concerns from elected officials on both sides of the aisle, reform measures have been dead in the water, including the defeat of nine reform bills since 2011.

August 15, 2019

Aerojet Rocketdyne Cuts Costs, Builds Infrastructure To Compete For Engines On Future ICBM

August 8, 2019- Issue brief by GPI senior adviser Loren B. Thompson, Last month’s revelation that Boeing may not bid to develop the Air Force’s next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile surprised many. If the company’s concerns about how the program is being competed are not resolved, rival Northrop Grumman may be headed for lucrative monopolies on all three legs of the nation’s nuclear “triad.” The unsettled state of the program, known as the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD), doesn’t just impact the big aerospace integrators who want to be prime contractor. It also affects a highly specialized supply chain of domestic contractors whose ranks have thinned dramatically since the end of the Cold War.

August 8, 2019

U.S. Foreign Policy and Petroleum

July 11, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Jonathan Chanis During the last 45 years, the United States has experienced alternating periods of energy security and insecurity. There were the oil shocks of 1973–74 and 1979–81; the quiescent phase of the mid-1980s through the very early 2000s; the more difficult years of 2004–12; and now the current period of lower energy prices and more secure supplies. During all of these phases and even earlier, U.S. foreign policy was shaped either directly or indirectly by energy and petroleum security concerns.

July 11, 2019

Saudi Arabia’s Transformation and U.S. Energy Security: Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst…

July 5, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Jonathan Chanis Since the elevation in June 2017 of Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to Crown Prince, or next in line to the King, instability in Saudi Arabia and the wider region has grown to such an extent that many observers and analysts now say the oil geopolitical risk premium—the additional amount of money buyers will pay for a barrel of oil due to future supply uncertainty—has returned.