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America’s AI Action Plan and Mental Health: Building a Smarter Support System
America’s AI Action Plan and Mental Health: Building a Smarter Support System By Janice Tagoe When President Donald Trump unveiled America’s AI Action Plan in July 2025, it was framed as a blueprint for national technological dominance. The 90+ policy recommendations span deregulation, infrastructure, and diplomacy, and their implications for health care, specifically mental health, cannot be overemphasized. Mental health conditions affect tens of millions of Americans, and access to care remains uneven. Could the federal government’s AI roadmap spur innovations that make high-quality support more accessible, efficient, and personalized? Recent research and industry initiatives suggest the answer is yes, but only with deliberate safeguards and inclusive investment. Laying the Groundwork The Action Plan calls for accelerating innovation by removing regulatory hurdles, expanding infrastructure, and building international partnerships. Several provisions speak directly to health care. It urges federal agencies to create regulatory sandboxes and AI Centers of Excellence where researchers and startups can test AI tools under the supervision of agencies like the FDA and share data transparently. It also recommends launching domain-specific initiatives in sectors such as healthcare to develop national standards for AI systems and measure productivity gains. The plan further highlights the need for robust scientific datasets and secure access to federal data to support AI research in biology, medicine, and population health
November 14, 2025
China’s Electronic Warfare Supremacy – Strategic Implications for India and the United States
NEW DELHI - November 11, 2025 - In contemporary warfare, dominance is no longer defined by the size of an army or the range of its missiles but by control over the invisible yet decisive electromagnetic spectrum. The ability to detect, disrupt, or deny information flow across this domain has become the cornerstone of modern conflict. Electronic Warfare (EW) has thus evolved from a tactical support mechanism into a strategic instrument for shaping the outcome of wars. Among global powers, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has emerged as a formidable force, integrating electronic, cyber, and space capabilities to construct a multi-domain system that directly challenges both India and the United States. The PLA’s Strategic Transition Toward Electromagnetic Supremacy Over the last decade, China has transformed its military doctrine through what it calls Integrated Network and Electronic Warfare, a concept that merges cyber operations, space-based intelligence, and electromagnetic control, into a single offensive continuum. This concept underpins the PLA’s System Destruction Warfare doctrine, which focuses not on the annihilating enemy forces but on crippling their ability to perceive, communicate, and respond effectively.
November 11, 2025
Reshaping Trade Fairly: How U.S. Tariffs Are Encouraging Balanced Growth with India
“Reshaping Trade Fairly: How U.S. Tariffs Are Encouraging Balanced Growth with India” Authored by: Yashasvi Ojha Research Intern, Global Policy Institute (DC, Washington) NEW DELHI - India and the United States share one of the world’s most dynamic and multifaceted trade relationships. In the past two decades, the U.S. has consistently ranked among India’s largest trading partners, with bilateral trade crossing $200 billion in 2024 according to the U.S. International Trade Administration. The relationship is driven by complementary strengths—India’s manufacturing and services capabilities, and America’s advanced technology, capital, and market demand. However, the partnership has not been without friction. Since 2018, the United States has introduced several tariff measures aimed at reshaping its global trade posture—focusing on fair competition, domestic job creation, and reducing dependency on certain foreign markets. India, though not the primary target, became part of this recalibration. The imposition of tariffs and the withdrawal of India’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) status were major inflection points that forced a rethinking of India’s export strategies and bilateral trade approach.
October 28, 2025
Army MV-75 Has A “Digital Backbone” To Stand Up To China In The Pacific (From National Security Journal)
By Rebecca L. Grant, Ph.D., Vice President, Lexington Institute. October 20, 2025  The full text of this article is available below and on the National Security Journal website here. Key Points and Summary – The U.S. Army is accelerating its new MV-75 tiltrotor program, a long-range assault aircraft that is “twice as far, twice as fast” as the Black Hawk. -While its performance is a leap forward, its most revolutionary feature is its “digital backbone.” -The MV-75 is the first military aircraft designed from the ground up with a modular open systems architecture using Time Sensitive Networking (TSN). -This approach, borrowed from the auto industry, allows for rapid, “plug and play” upgrades, avoids vendor lock, and ensures the platform can be easily modernized for decades to come. The MV-75 Is Coming  The Army needs the operational agility of the MV-75 for the Pacific, but multidomain success for Soldiers also depends on the digital backbone of next-generation systems. China’s tactics in the Pacific lean on a number of different elements, from gray-zone operations to missile threats. The U.S. Army is countering with a strategy for operational agility that could deter China in both low-intensity conflicts and all-out wars. Speeding up the arrival of the future MV-75 long-range assault aircraft is a key part of the U.S. strategy. The Army is accelerating both the testing and production schedule for the program. It is “the most modern, transformational, game-changing aircraft that the Army has ever seen,” MV-75 program manager Col. Jeffrey Poquette said in a recent video.
October 20, 2025
Trump’s Aircraft Carrier Visit Sends China A Message: US Sea Power Still Rules The Waves (From FOX News)
Trump’s Aircraft Carrier Visit Sends China A Message: US Sea Power Still Rules The Waves (From FOX News) The full text of this article is available below and on the FOX News website here. The sight of President Donald Trump on the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS George H. W. Bush was a great reminder that no one fears U.S. aircraft carriers more than China. Trump flew onto the carrier, underway in the Atlantic, as part of the Navy’s 250th Anniversary celebrations. He brought along First Lady Melania Trump, wearing a sleek leather flight jacket and more importantly, closed-toe, low-heel shoes, per Navy regulation for personnel on the flight deck. Together they watched a firepower demonstration from F/A-18EF Superhornets, F-35C fighters and the Aegis destroyers of the strike group in the Navy’s Atlantic training range. Later, Trump applauded carrier operations, with a speech back at the pier at Norfolk Naval Base, Virginia. “They land screaming jets on pitching decks in the dark of night with no room for error,” he said.
October 13, 2025
The Roman Empire Welcomed Barbarian Immigrants
by Paolo von Schirach, October 6, 2025 WASHINGTON – This may surprise some. It is true that the Roman Empire was overcome by the barbarian invasions. However, it is also true that for several centuries the barbarians asked to be admitted into the Empire as immigrants. And the Romans welcomed them. To facilitate this “immigration” process, the Roman Empire developed a fairly well structured immigration policy. Following fairly detailed procedures, the “Barbarians” were allowed in. They came peacefully, with the goal of assimilation. not conquest or domination. Note that in Greek “Barbaros” meant someone who speaks an incomprehensible language, therefore a “non Greek”, or foreigner. The Romans borrowed the term from the Greek language. However, for the Romans the term acquired a pejorative meaning. Something like: “backward”, “uncivilized”, “violent”. Welcoming the barbarians Still –and here is the interesting part– even though they looked at the barbarians as uncivilized, for centuries the Romans made immigration deals with barbarian (mostly Germanic) tribes. They welcomed them into their Empire. For this purpose, the Romans created binding legal procedures for integration and assimilation of foreign tribes that were implemented by the imperials authorities and adhered to by the new immigrants. The goal of those foreigners was not conquest. It was assimilation. Forget about wild barbarian invaders slashing, killing, burning and pillaging. On the contrary, the uncivilized barbarians wanted to become peaceful subjects of Rome. And in most cases the Romans welcomed them –for at least three centuries! The accepted narrative But this is not the history of Romans and barbarians as most school children learn it. An oversimplified version of the history of the rise an then inglorious decline and fall of the Roman Empire runs more or less like this.
October 6, 2025
Aerospace Mid-Tiers Ready For Primetime To Expand The Industrial Base (From RealClearDefense)
By Rebecca L. Grant, Ph.D., Vice President, Lexington Institute. September 29, 2025  A small group of mid-tier defense firms is delivering on major aerospace programs. Read here and below. The Pentagon wants its mid-tier aerospace companies back. Once upon a time, during the Reagan buildup of the 1980s, there were 51 major defense vendors in the aerospace sector.   By 1998, there were just 5.  As the post-Cold War defense budget fell 60%, Pentagon leaders opted to nurture a few large companies and hope for increased use of commercial “off the shelf” parts and software to carry overhead. Those giants produced epic systems from F-35s to Patriot missiles and are delivering day after day for the warfighter. Fast forward to 2025 and the competition with China.  Brandishing their expertise in data and open systems architectures, a new cohort of strong, capable mid-tier defense companies is quietly reshaping how the Pentagon does business, especially in the aerospace sector.  The rise of the mid-tier defense companies, from drone makers and upgrade specialists to prime contractors in charge of major aircraft and weapons programs, is expanding the aerospace industrial base — and just in time.  These mid tiers do business their own way and seek out opportunities to break the mold. Four examples show the growing role of mid-tier primes. Survivable Airborne Operations Center (SAOC.)  When Boeing and the Air Force could not reach an agreement on data rights and contract structure, SNC stepped up for the win.  The first company-led flight test for the “doomsday plane” took place Aug. 7, as SNC continues to hit critical program milestones.  The $13B contract for five Survivable Airborne Operations Center aircraft through 2036 marks the biggest award yet to a mid-tier, designating SNC as a major aerospace prime.  “As one of the only privately-owned mid-tier defense contractors, SNC has the foresight to invest early to stay ahead of customer needs,” said Jon Piatt, executive vice president for SNC.  They’d already made significant investments in facilities well ahead of the SAOC contract award, and continue proactive investments to deliver for customers, according to Piatt.  
September 29, 2025
America First: Rubio And Trump Just Drew A Red Line For Narco-Terrorists (From FOX News)
By Rebecca L. Grant, Ph.D., Vice President, Lexington Institute. September 16, 2025  The full text of this article is available below and on the FOX News website here. When U.S. forces destroyed a Tren de Aragua drug runner’s fast boat with a missile on Tuesday, it opened a new chapter in the drug war and in the defense of the Western Hemisphere. Tren de Aragua is a designated terrorist organization and invasion force. In tactical terms, the strike was no different from hitting ISIS or Houthi targets in the Middle East. “If you’re on a boat full of cocaine or fentanyl or whatever, headed to the United States, you’re an immediate threat to the United States,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a speech in Mexico City. “I’ve been saying for many years that a law enforcement solution is not good enough to address these global terrorists operating in the Western Hemisphere,” former acting DEA chief Derek Maltz told USA Today. This is truly America First. President Donald Trump is the first American leader to construct a policy framework for direct military operations against cartels. His new approach also gives Americans greater transparency into how he plans to carry it out. Part of the shock factor was that Americans got a rare chance to see U.S. military forces in action close to home. Trump wants it out in the open. The video of Tuesday’s strike was labeled UNCLASSIFIED in bright green, meaning officials had stripped out the range and location data normally seen around the frame. The strike was clearly calculated, likely backed by communications intercepts and maritime surveillance. The weapon may have been a Hellfire from a helicopter or another anti-ship missile. The footage was likely captured by a drone. Regardless of the platform, the point was unmistakable: the U.S. won’t tolerate cartel activity. The strike was a direct message to Tren de Aragua’s Hector Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, known as “Niño Guerrero.” He has morphed TdA from a Venezuelan prison gang into “an organization with growing influence throughout the Western Hemisphere,” according to the Treasury Department. TdA is more than a cartel. Yes, this is the same Tren de Aragua whose members took over the Aspen Grove apartment complex in Aurora, Colorado, last year. Its activities include drug trafficking, human smuggling, extortion, sexual exploitation, money laundering and more. The group also fueled mass migration into the United States during President Joe Biden’s open-border era.
September 16, 2025
China’s Massive Missile Forces: A Paper Tiger? (From National Security Journal)
By Rebecca L. Grant, Ph.D., Vice President, Lexington Institute. September 9, 2025  The full text of this article is available below and on the National Security Journal website here. Key Points and Summary – Despite its massive size and impressive parades, China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) may be a “paper tiger” in a real conflict. The PLARF’s effectiveness is severely undermined by deep-rooted corruption, a complete lack of modern combat experience, and finite missile stockpiles. While China boasts of “carrier-killer” missiles like the DF-21D, the immense difficulty of targeting and hitting a moving, well-defended U.S. aircraft carrier is a major operational challenge. Meanwhile, the U.S. is deploying advanced counter-hypersonic defenses, stretching China’s limited resources and diminishing the PLARF’s perceived threat.
September 9, 2025
Will Alaska Summit Make America Safer? Trump Could End Ukraine War, But a Larger Threat Looms (From FOX News)
By Rebecca L. Grant, Ph.D., Vice President, Lexington Institute. September 2, 2025  Hint: it’s China. President Donald J. Trump wants a Ukraine ceasefire.  Even if Putin agrees, America won’t be safer.  For the Ukraine war has also turned the China-Russia alliance into the greatest military danger America faces. Read from FOX News hereand below. The China-Russia alliance has grown by leaps and bounds since Trump last met with Putin in 2019 on the sidelines of the G20 Summit on Osaka, Japan.  China gave Russia the greenlight to try to take over all of Ukraine in 2022.  China and Russia engage in high-stakes military exercises and tech deals.  Both are sprinting ahead on new nuclear weapons and missiles.  Don’t forget Iran and North Korea, junior partners whose drones and troops have added to the bloodshed. So while Trump looks Putin in the eye at Joint Base Elmendorf, he will also weigh how close Putin really is to China’s Xi Jinping.  It’s a scary scenario. China counts on Russia as a partner in global confrontation.  “Grynch,” NATO’s new commander Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, United States Air Force, is widely known by his callsign from his days as an F-16 and F-22 pilot.  He recently said he worries that China could synchronize an invasion of Taiwan with a new Russian attack on the Baltics or another part of Europe.
September 2, 2025
Coded Commanders: Artificial Intelligence as the New General
Coded Commanders: Artificial Intelligence as the New General By Nishakant Ojha   New Delhi August 26,2025- Warfare is no longer confined to trenches, tanks, and territorial lines. The battlefield of the twenty-first century has shifted to codes, algorithms, satellites, and quantum signals. In this new age, decisions are not just taken by generals in command rooms but also by machine learning systems parsing terabytes of real-time data. The United States and China have embraced this transformation with clarity and urgency, pouring unprecedented resources into artificial intelligence, cyber dominance, quantum networks, and unmanned systems. For India, a nation with strategic imperatives across two hostile borders and maritime vulnerabilities, the urgency is far greater. The question is not whether India should modernize but whether it can do so fast enough to ensure survival in wars where the first shots may be fired in cyberspace or space, not on land. Algorithms at War: How AI is Rewriting Command and Control Artificial intelligence has become the defining marker of military modernisation. The United States leads in the integration of AI into its command-and-control systems, combining battlefield simulations with predictive analytics to give commanders decision making superiority. In war-gaming scenarios, American forces rely on AI to identify enemy vulnerabilities, optimise troop movements, and execute precision strikes with minimal human latency. AI-driven ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) is already a reality in the Pentagon’s doctrine, where unmanned systems feed vast amounts of battlefield data into real-time decision networks.
August 26, 2025
F-35 Fighters As The ‘Stealth’ Shield: NATO Must Contain Russia From The Air (From National Security Journal)
The full text of this article is available below and in National Security Journal here. Key Points and Summary – With Russia’s imperial ambitions checked by a resurgent U.S.-led alliance, the West must now implement a new “Containment 2.0” strategy to ensure long-term peace in Europe. -This comprehensive plan extends from Finland to the Black Sea, leveraging new NATO members to turn the Baltic into a “NATO Lake,” hardening Poland’s “Eastern Shield” with Abrams tanks, and crucially, providing Ukraine with dominant airpower to deter future invasions. -The strategy is ultimately backstopped by U.S. naval power and extended nuclear deterrence, with the F-35 now certified to carry tactical nuclear weapons. Containment Against Russia: An Old Idea Makes a Comeback Vladimir Putin’s ambitions to restore Imperial Russia are over. In Alaska, Putin had to walk a cordon of F-22s at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, a vivid reminder that his team lost the Cold War.
August 22, 2025
Trump’s Nuclear Submarine Chess Move Should Send Chills Down Putin’s Spine – And Yours (From FOX News)
By Rebecca L. Grant, Ph.D., Vice President, Lexington Institute. August 8, 2025 -The full text of this article is available below and on the FOX News website at the link here. Forget Tom Cruise and Top Gun 3. After President Donald Trump’s astonishing comments about repositioning Ohio-class nuclear submarines, perhaps Hollywood should remake The Hunt for Red October. The classic 1990 submarine thriller starred former 007 actor Sean Connery as a Russian navy captain trying to prevent nuclear war by defecting to the United States with the Soviet Union’s killer nuclear-armed submarine, the Red October. The SSBN Ohio-class Trident ballistic missile submarines or “boomers” carry 20 intercontinental missiles with multiple nuclear warheads apiece. They patrol underwater for weeks at a time without resurfacing. U.S. presidents basically never talk about their tactical locations. Yet last Friday, Trump broke that rule for a good reason: reminding Russia that the deadly Trident submarine fleet assures Russia will never win a nuclear war. “I have ordered two nuclear submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that,” Trump wrote Aug. 1.
August 8, 2025
E-7 Wedgetail Shock Threatens Air Superiority in the Pacific (From National Security Journal
August 5, 2025 -The full text of this article is available below and in National Security Journal at the link here. Key Points and Summary – The Pentagon’s shocking decision to cancel the E-7 Wedgetail program threatens decades of American air superiority. -Intended to replace the aging E-3 AWACS, the E-7 provides critical airborne early warning and battle management essential for combat in the Pacific. While the Defense Department points to future space-based systems, experts warn this technology is not mature enough to fill the void. -This premature cancellation creates a dangerous capability gap, forcing a reliance on inadequate “Band-Aid” fixes, jeopardizing operations against China, and risking billions of dollars in allied investment in the proven Wedgetail platform. Elon Musk and his team are no longer prowling Washington, DC, but at the Pentagon, there is still damage control needed from the rush to slash programs.
August 5, 2025
MAGA Country Thriving From Tech AI Investments, But Risks Abound (From American Greatness)
MAGA Country Thriving From Tech AI Investments, But Risks Abound (From American Greatness) Much has been made about the growing internal battles within the Trump Administration between supporters of tech bros, such as Elon Musk, and those on the populist right who are slamming the tech industry, like Steve Bannon. These divisions came to a head as the U.S. Senate considered a 10-year moratorium on state AI legislation as part of the massive budget reconciliation bill, siding with Team Bannon in opposing such a ban.
July 29, 2025
The Trump Tank
By Merrick "Mac" Carey. July 25, 2025 -President Donald Trump is leading a renaissance in U.S. Army and allied tank capability. During his first term as President, he reversed the Obama Administration’s plan to end American tank production and close the only tank manufacturing plant in America. Trump increased Abrams tank modernization funding by $1 billion per year, upgrading one armored brigade (90 tanks) annually. The tank industrial base was operating at full capacity with thousands of new jobs. President Trump also reintroduced Abrams tanks into NATO’s force structure after the Obama Administration withdrew them from Europe. Trump also encouraged Poland to modernize its armored forces with the U.S. Abrams tank, resulting in Poland’s purchase of nearly 400 Abrams tanks to date. Poland still has a requirement for 800 additional tanks. As Trump’s first-term National Security Council chief of staff, Alex Gray, has said:
July 25, 2025
Trump Gives Putin Strict Ultimatum To Make A Deal On Ukraine Or Face Consequences (From FOX News)
By Rebecca L. Grant, Ph.D., Vice President, Lexington Institute. July 22, 2025 - The full text of this article is available below and on the FOX News website here. President Donald Trump put Russian President Vladimir Putin on a 50-day clock. To drive Putin to a deal on Ukraine, Trump has a new plan: massive air defenses backed up by the Trump doctrine, where trade wins wars. But what’s truly at stake is Trump’s unique vision for U.S. power and prosperity. In the Oval Office with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday, July 14, Trump announced more U.S. aid to Ukraine and a 100% tariff to hit Russia’s oil customers like China by early September. “I use trade for a lot of things … it’s good for settling wars,” Trump said. Trump cited the example of how he employed trade threats to simmer down India and Pakistan in May. However, as he said Monday, “The only one we haven’t been able to get to yet is Russia.” So, Trump has turned up the heat. The 100% tariffs would hit the $240 billion Russia-China trade and reverberate to India, Brazil and others. This tariff appears to be distinct from the potential 500% secondary sanctions in the Senate bill co-sponsored by Republican South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and Connecticut Democrat Sen. Richard Blumenthal, which Trump views as a back-up plan.
July 22, 2025
Germany’s Defense Industrial Ramp-Up: Between Strategic Intent and Industrial Constraints
Germany's Defense Industrial Ramp-Up: Between Strategic Intent and Industrial Constraints By Laetitia von Schönburg July 15,2025- Germany's ambitious rearmament agenda actively promoted by Chancellor Friedrich Merz is rapidly reshaping the geopolitical landscape of Europe. Yet the success of this vision depends on whether Germany's defense industrial base can expand rapidly enough to meet the demands of modern warfare across all domains; land, sea, air, and cyber, within a tight 2025–2031 window. Scaling up production Germany's leading defense firms, such as Rheinmetall, ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), Airbus Defense & Space, and Hensoldt, have all initiated production scale-ups. Yet their efforts are challenged by structural and regulatory bottlenecks that risk turning ambition into inertia. Rheinmetall, the country's central supplier of land systems and munitions, is undergoing a significant expansion.
July 15, 2025
Mongolia seeks new markets in Eurasi
Mongolia seeks new markets in Eurasia By Telmen Altanshagai July 14, 2025 - Landlocked Mongolia has decided to pivot its trade towards Eurasia. In March 2025, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Mongolia agreed on a draft proposal regarding a three-year trade agreement, according to the EAEU Trade Minister Andrey Slepnew. The EAEU was formed in 2015, consisting of five former Soviet states — Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. Mongolia started the last rounds of talks on an interim free trade agreement with EAEU in 2024. Supporters of the agreement highlight its benefits to the Mongolian economy as it opens a US$14.5 billion market across the five EAEU countries for Mongolian cashmere, leather, and wool exports. Some preliminary research suggests that Mongolia could add US$150 million worth of goods to the EAEU market, meanwhile EAEU countries could potentially increase their exports by US$200–300 million in the Mongolian market. The trade agreement is the latest example of Mongolian efforts to reach regional markets beyond its biggest trading partner, China. While Mongolia’s trade turnover — exports plus imports — with China accounted for 72 per cent of total trade in 2023, the country has had limited trade with EAEU countries. That is, except for Russia, on which Mongolia depends for 85–90 per cent of its petroleum products, accounting for 32–34 per cent of total imports into Mongolia.
July 14, 2025
AI, Fair Use and the Arsenal of Democracy (From RealClear Defense)
By Rebecca L. Grant, Ph.D., Vice President, Lexington Institute. July 9, 2025 -AI, Fair Use and the Arsenal of Democracy (From RealClear Defense) Two California Rulings Impact America’s AI Race with China. Read here and below. National security has been barely a whisper in the rollicking debates on AI rules and regulations.  However, more and more defense programs are tapping directly into the products of what might be termed the “AI industrial base.”  From Air Force battle management to Navy shipbuilding and Army sensors and offensive cyber ops, AI is becoming an important element in U.S. multi-domain dominance. AI is now part of the arsenal of democracy.  That phrase, coined by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in December 1940, included large auto factories, small tool and die shops, pharmaceutical manufacturers, boat builders and more, producing everything from jeeps to electronics. As every indicator shows, the struggle with China is increasingly focused on AI.  U.S. military programs are counting on the AI lead over China established by American technology companies. That’s why two California court rulings on AI models and the Fair Use doctrine – seemingly just a boisterous Hollywood issue – have implications for national security, too.
July 9, 2025
B-21 Raider: The Iran War Proves We Need More Stealth Bombers (From National Security Journal)
By Rebecca L. Grant, Ph.D., Vice President, Lexington Institute. June 24, 2025 -B-21 Raider: The Iran War Proves We Need More Stealth Bombers (From National Security Journal) Key Points and Summary – The successful “Operation Midnight Hammer” strike on Iran, where just seven B-2 Spirit bombers devastated key nuclear sites, highlights a critical lesson for the U.S. Air Force: it needs more stealth bombers, and fast. -The current fleet of only 19 B-2s, a fraction of the 132 originally planned, was severely strained to execute the mission. -This small fleet size creates significant risks when facing multiple global threats. -The clear takeaway is the urgent need to accelerate production of the B-2’s successor, the B-21 Raider, and to procure a much larger fleet of at least 100-200 aircraft to meet modern strategic demands. Read full article here and below.
July 1, 2025
Germany’s New Defence Ambitions: A Turning Point for European Security?
Germany's New Defence Ambitions: A Turning Point for European Security? By Laetitia von Schönburg June 25, 2025 - Under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Germany is embarking on a radical transformation of its defence policy, aiming to build the Bundeswehr (literally Federal Defence, Germany’s Armed Forces) into Europe's most capable conventional military by 2031. This shift includes a massive increase in defence spending: 5% of GDP with 3.5% allocated directly to military investments, and an additional 1.5% dedicated to dual-use infrastructure like roads and bridges serving civilian and military needs. The Bundestag, Germany’s federal Parliament, has approved constitutional changes to relax fiscal constraints, allowing for the creation of a €500 billion modernization fund. This decision marks a historic break with decades of restrained military policy. At the forefront of Europe’s rearmament This pivot aligns with a broader European momentum toward rearmament, exemplified by the EU's €150 billion SAFE program and the ambitious €800 billion Readiness 2030 strategy. Germany is positioning itself at the forefront of these efforts, spearheading the European Sky Shield Initiative and entering strategic deterrence discussions with France and the United Kingdom. At stake is not just Germany's credibility but the future of EU strategic autonomy and NATO's cohesion. Whether Germany can deliver on these sweeping promises will shape the next phase of European and transatlantic security.
June 25, 2025
Midnight Hammer is ‘mission accomplished’ but there’s one big red flag (From FOX News)
June 24, 2025 - The Middle East was teetering on the verge of nuclear catastrophe courtesy of Iran. Seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers brought the region back from the edge this weekend.  Read from FOX news here. President Donald Trump’s powerful strike in Operation Midnight Hammer on Saturday was a street-smart move that pulled the knife out of Iran’s hand.  “We retained the element of surprise,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine said at a Pentagon briefing on Sunday. Yes, that’s the understatement of the year. Caine, an F-16 fighter pilot who flew combat in Iraq, was the right choice to be Trump’s top military adviser as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. For now, it’s mission accomplished.  Iran’s most advanced nuclear facilities are entombed in rubble. The first U.S. strike to prevent an emergent nuclear power has succeeded.  And if the special smart fuses on the Massive Ordnance Penetrators did their job, a lot of expensive, complex machinery underground has been smashed to bits.
June 24, 2025
The M1 Abrams On Parade And Containing Putin (From RealClearDefense)
By Rebecca L. Grant, Ph.D., Vice President, Lexington Institute. June 16,2025 - The full text of this article is available below and on the RealClearDefense website here. Look for 28 Abrams tanks on the parade route in Washington, DC on Saturday, June 14 as the U.S. Army celebrates its 250th Birthday. Those Abrams tanks display a famous legacy. On December 26, 1944, 30-year-old Lieutenant Colonel Creighton Abrams led the 4th Armored Division’s breakthrough to Bastogne during World War II’s Battle of the Bulge. He called his tank the “Thunderbolt.” The Abrams tanks aren’t just on parade as part of the past glory of the Army. The Abrams Main Battle Tank remains the most lethal tank in the world and a centerpiece of combined arms maneuver – the way the Army wins its wars. Just as it took tanks to liberate Europe in World War II, tanks are essential to containing Russia in 2025 and beyond.
June 17, 2025
New Yorkers: Will Trump’s Golden Dome Missile Defense Work? (From AM970 The Joe Piscopo Show and Shake it Off with Mert and Lucas)
June 12, 2025- Golden Dome missile defense is such a hot topic that it’s breaking through on New York radio. On May 28, deep into a discussion of Putin’s chaos in Ukraine, Joe Borelli, guest host of The Joe Piscopo Show, asked about President Donald Trump’s plan for Golden Dome, a missile defense shield for America.  Highlights below.Joe Borelli noted that “President Trump has been talking about the Golden Dome for the last couple of weeks.  Is this really a way to neutralize Russian nuclear attacks, that could sideline Putin and make him less of a threat?”
June 12, 2025
Afghanistan’s Descent into Extremism: The Alarming Rise of Militant Networks in Taliban-Controlled Territory
NEW DELHI -, June 10,2025 - Since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, the country has once again become a critical epicentre for global terrorism. Despite assurances in the Doha Agreement, the Taliban has failed to sever ties with transnational extremist networks. Instead, Afghanistan has been transformed into a fertile ground where militant groups regroup, recruit, and reassert influence across South and Central Asia.
June 10, 2025
Germany’s €500 Billion Infrastructure Gamble: Bold Shift or Budgetary Overreach?
May 30,2025 - Germany's new government led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz has launched one of the most ambitious economic spending initiatives in the country's postwar history. At the heart of it is a €500 billion infrastructure fund, a ten-year plan to rebuild the nation's physical and digital backbone, with the goal of revitalizing the economy while accelerating the shift toward clean energy. It is a staggering sum, twice the size of previous infrastructure spending plans. Furthermore, this public policy initiative marks a fundamental departure from the fiscal orthodoxy that has defined German fiscal policies for decades. However, the critical question remains: Can Germany deliver on this promise, or will it get bogged down in the bureaucratic inertia it is trying to escape from?
May 30, 2025
‘MOP Up Option’: Inside the U.S. Plan to Hit Iran’s Underground Nuclear Sites (From 1945)
The full text of this article is available below and on the 1945 website here. The Iran MOP Up Option: Air Force’s Biggest Bombs are Ready to Teach Iran a Lesson: As talks about Iran’s nuclear weapons program move forward, the U.S. military is keeping up the pressure with an array of forces in place under United States Central Command. “We do not want to see war. This is not a president that campaigned on starting wars. And as he said very clearly
May 27, 2025
How Machine Learning is Shaping the Future of Newborn Genetic Screening
May 13, 2025 - Advancements in artificial intelligence and genomics are rapidly transforming the landscape of public health. One of the most promising areas of this intersection is newborn screening, where data-driven tools are helping to reimagine how we detect and respond to genetic conditions from the earliest moments of life.
May 13, 2025
This Is What De-Nuking Iran Could Look Like If Trump Orders Military Strikes (From FOX News)
By Rebecca L. Grant, Ph.D., Vice President, Lexington Institute. The full text of this article is available below and on FOX News here. May 7, 2025 - Iran can either talk, or get its weapons facilities bombed. Iran has gone too far and can make weapons-grade nuclear fuel for one bomb in less than a week, with more to follow. Two aircraft carriers and a fleet of B-2 stealth bombers are pointed straight at Iran. Never before have we seen such a big forward deployment of B-2 bombers.
May 7, 2025
Trump Warns Putin ‘STOP!’ But History Says That’s Not Enough – Just Ask Reagan (From FOX News)
May 1, 2025 - “Vladimir, STOP! 5,000 soldiers a week are dying. Let’s get the peace deal DONE,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday. Oh, the frustration of negotiating with Russia. But this sounded like the cry of a hoop-skirted heroine tied to the railroad tracks. President Donald J. Trump is a master communicator, but with the single-word plea, he brought back bad memories of one of the low points of President Joe Biden’s foreign policy. That came Sep. 16, 2022, when 60 Minutes asked then-President Joe Biden what he would say if Putin threatened to use nuclear or chemical weapons.
May 1, 2025
India’s Battle Against Eco-Terrorism and Global Trafficking
NEW DELHI - April22, 2025 - India’s biodiversity crisis has escalated into a national security threat, as wildlife trafficking large profits increasingly fund terrorism, insurgency, and organized crime. A new policy vision is imperative. India, home to some of the planet’s most iconic and endangered species, is facing an escalating crisis. Wildlife trafficking is no longer just an environmental issue—now it has become a matter of national security. Criminal syndicates are targeting India's tigers, elephants, rhinos, and pangolins that are sold in black markets to fund terrorism and insurgency, often in alliance with transnational networks operating across Southeast Asia and Africa. As the line between eco-crime and terrorism blurs, India must evolve from traditional conservation to adopting counterterrorism-grade technology, intelligence, and cooperation.
April 22, 2025
For T-45 Replacement, Young Navy Carrier Pilots Need AI And “Air Under Their Butts” (From RealClearDefense)
April 18, 2025 - The Navy is ready to unveil a secret sixth-generation fighter for its Ford and Nimitz-class aircraft carriers, but that’s not the only plane on their shopping list.  The Navy also needs a future-focused advanced trainer for its carrier pilots to replace the T-45 Goshawk. Carrier air wing operations are more vital than ever.  Just look at the constant carrier sorties in  Central Command’s campaign against the Houthis – and China’s activity near Taiwan with its carrier Shandong.  Even with advances in uncrewed aircraft and collaborative drones, the Navy must produce pilots for fleet combat and support aircraft for years to come.  Drones are only just making their debut in carrier air wings, with the MQ-25 Stingray set to fly this year and go to sea in 2026
April 18, 2025
Germany’s Energy Transition: From Piped Gas to LNG and Renewables
April 11, 2025 - Germany's decision to end piped gas imports, mainly from Russia, and transition to liquefied natural gas (LNG) marks a profound shift in its energy strategy. While this move enhances energy security by reducing reliance on Russian gas, it comes with significant economic and infrastructural costs. The transition requires substantial investment in LNG infrastructure. It exposes the country to volatile global LNG prices and alters Germany's energy market dynamics.
April 11, 2025
American Advantage: The Strategic Value of Aerospace-Grade Carbon Fiber Composites
April 7, 2025 - U.S. defense programs are becoming more reliant than ever on lightweight carbon fiber composites. From helicopter blades to the wings and fuselage of the F-35 stealth fighter, most major military aerospace platforms that form America’s advantage today depend on carbon fiber composites for their lightweight designs and advanced shaping and performance to increase range and reduce fuel consumption. For future systems, composites have been a design factor from the beginning. The Air Force’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft drone family and the Boeing F-47 Next Generation Air Dominance fighter systems incorporate composites. So does the new carrier-based F/A-XX fighter plane. The Army’s Future Long Range Attack Aircraft also relies on advanced composites.  On the list are other drones, missiles, space and satellite systems covering a wide swathe of the most advanced U.S. military capability.
April 7, 2025
B-21 “Bomber on a Budget” Boosts Confidence in 6th Gen Aircraft (From RealClearDefense)
April 03, 2025 - Boosting Confidence in Sixth-Gen Aircraft Even in the era of DOGE, President Donald J. Trump is doubling down on American investment in sixth-generation aircraft.  The Air Force F-47 fighter and a new Navy carrier plane will restock American airpower.  While air dominance is priceless, the fact remains that experience with the B-21 Raider bomber has quietly given Trump, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Deputy Secretary of Defense Stephen Feinberg, and the new leadership team the confidence to invest in advanced aircraft programs.  Saving money and executing on a predictable schedule is now a must for the survival of Pentagon programs. Read here and below.
April 3, 2025
Ghana’s AI Journey: Progress, Challenges, and Lessons from Global Leaders
March 21, 2025 - As Artificial Intelligence rapidly transforms industries across the world, Ghana is stepping up as a key player in Africa’s AI revolution. Ghana has made remarkable progress in integrating AI into education, digital skills training, and governance. However, obstacles like infrastructure limitations and regulatory gaps continue to pose challenges.
March 21, 2025
Can Cost Plus cheap medications help low income Americans?
March 12, 2025 - Marc Cuban is an American billionaire (net worth a bit shy of $ 6 billion) who made money in tech and as the co-owner of the Dallas Mavericks, a major basketball team. He is fairly well known because of his role as a possible investor in the popular Shark Tank TV show in which would-be entrepreneurs try to convince rich businesspeople (Cuban being one of them) to invest in their new business ventures
March 12, 2025
7 Combat Systems Ukraine Could Lose Without a Trump Deal on Aid (From FOX News)
March 11, 2025 - Ukraine fields high-tech weapons that rely on US technology and missiles to stay up-to-date Zelenskyy needs to Docusign that minerals deal right now. Zelenskyy’s stubbornness is about to leave Ukraine’s front lines and cities naked to the Russians.  Worst case, the war goes from static front lines to another attempted sweep toward Kyiv by Russia (backed up, as ever, by China.) Read here and full text below.
March 11, 2025
Global Diplomacy after Trump’s Meeting with Zelensky
March 07, 2025 - The recent Oval Office meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sent diplomatic shockwaves across the globe. What was intended to be a strategic discussion on U.S.-Ukraine relations quickly devolved into a debate, culminating in the departure of President Zelenskyy from the White House. The impact of this incident may extend far beyond this bilateral relationship, possibly affecting global alliances and altering the strategic calculations of key international players.
March 7, 2025
Putin Still Has a Taste for War (From the FOX News Rundown)
March 05, 2025 - Rare earth minerals, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Zelensky in Munich, the bottling up of Crimea and Putin’s future war plans?    FOX News Rundown’s John Saucier and I talked it all over on a special Evening Edition during the Munich Security Conference. Full clip here and edited highlights below.
March 5, 2025
How Financial Institutions Are Using Data to Navigate Economic Uncertainty
February 28, 2025 - Leading financial intelligence firms are witnessing a surge in demand for data and analytics solutions in 2025. In February, both S&P Global and Moody’s Corporation reported stronger-than-expected profits, attributing their success to a market shaped by economic uncertainty and shifting U.S. policies. Their financial performance reflects a broader industry trend: companies are relying more than ever on data-driven decision-making to navigate volatile economic conditions.
February 28, 2025
Two New Chinese Warplanes Could Mean The End Of U.S. Air Superiority (From Federal News Radio)
February 27, 2025 - As if not enough is going on in the world, the Chinese military has flown two new stealthy jets. Some military observers consider them a tangible threat to the U.S. One is a bomber, and one is a fighter. This episode of  The Federal Drive with Tom Temin covered the Chinese planes, plus the U.S. F-22, B-21, F-35, and the future Next Generation Air Force fighter called NGAD. Link here and readout below.
February 27, 2025
Here’s How the Pentagon Purge Can Succeed (From FOX News)
February 25, 2025 - A reset of the Department of Defense brass could set us up to counter the threat from China. Read at FOX News here and full text below. Even with DOGE on the move, the firings of Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General C. Q. Brown and Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti on Feb. 21 stunned Washington.
February 25, 2025
The Rising Tide of Extremism: Why Central Asian Youth Are Drawn to Terrorist Groups- An Inside Mind Theory
February 19, 2025 - In recent years, the increasing attraction of Central Asian youth to extremist and Takfiri groups has become a major security concern for regional governments and international security experts. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has further exacerbated these concerns, with reports of young migrant workers being recruited for extremist activities, mirroring past recruitment patterns observed during the conflicts in Syria and Iraq. Notably, the emergence of the Turan Battalion, a group composed of Turkic-speaking Central Asians fighting alongside Ukrainian forces against Russia, underscores the urgency of addressing radicalization among youth. Additionally, extremist propaganda spread by leaders like Idas Sadeghov has contributed to the rising tide of radicalism.
February 19, 2025
Affordable Supersonic Travel is Coming Soon
February 17, 2025 - Boom Achieves Supersonic Flight. The first civil supersonic jet made in America breaks the sound barrier in historic Mojave airspace.” Here is a simple statement on the website of Boom, a relatively small American company, based in Denver, Colorado and Greensboro, North Carolina. Boom was created with the goal of building Overture, a supersonic passenger aircraft that will make business sense for passengers and for the airlines that will buy it and operate it. Imagine this: for the price of a business class ticket, you will be able to fly from Paris to Boston in half the time.
February 17, 2025
The Arab Superpower Emerges: Redefining Global Power Dynamics – A Point-Blank Analysis
February 14, 2025 - At the Verge of a New Beginning. A new geopolitical force is emerging—an independent Arab bloc wielding economic strength, military self-reliance, and diplomatic influence. No longer just an energy supplier or regional player, the Arab world is evolving into a strategic powerhouse, shaping global policies, alliances, and technological progress.
February 14, 2025
Trump is Serious about Change in the Ukraine War (From the FOX News Rundown)
February 11, 2025 - Oil prices, Ukraine in NATO, the decimation of the Russian military and what about a meeting between President Donald J. Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin?  FOX News Radio White House Correspondent Jared Halpern and I talked it all over on the FOX News Rundown, Full clip here, beginning at 12:08 and catch these edited highlights below.
February 11, 2025
Type 2 Diabetes in the U.S.: Very Costly, Preventable, and Reversible
February 5, 2025 - In 2021–2023, 40.3% of adults in the U.S. had obesity. The primary causes are bad diet and lack of exercise. Too many ultra processed foods, and a sedentary lifestyle. One of the main consequences of obesity is type 2 diabetes. It costs almost $ 20,000 a year to treat a type 2 diabetes patient in America. In 2022 the total estimated cost of diagnosed type 2 diabetes in the U.S. was $412.9 billion, including $306.6 billion in direct medical costs and $106.3 billion in indirect costs attributable to diabetes. These expenditures and others (also related to treating chronic conditions) help explain the massive health care spending in the U.S. that has now reached almost 18% of GDP, much more than the 10% average among developed countries.
February 5, 2025
Why Donald Trump Must Protect S-Band Radar Spectrum for U.S. Defense (From 1945)
February 03, 2025 - Donald Trump Must Guard Spectrum for Radars to Defend the USA: No, the U.S. military cannot share a critical piece of S-band radar spectrum with commercial 5G wireless providers.  Not if the new Trump administration wants to improve defenses against mystery drones and guard against threats of missiles from China and Russia.
February 3, 2025
How AI Is Revolutionizing Cancer Care
January 31, 2025 - AI is set to transform the way we approach cancer care. During the January 21, 2025 announcement of the $500 billion “Stargate” AI infrastructure project at the White House, Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison highlighted AI’s immense potential in healthcare, specifically in cancer detection and treatment. Ellison painted a future where AI could detect cancer through a simple blood test and create personalized cancer vaccines in just 48 hours. “This is the promise of AI and the promise of the future,” he remarked.
January 31, 2025
Trump’s Blueprint for Iran, Plus Gaza, the Houthis, Saudi Arabia and AI:  Quick Takes from The Brian Kilmeade Show (FOX News Radio)
January 29, 2025 - Host Brian Kilmeade and I discussed the Gaza hostage deal, the heavy U.S. military pressure on Iran including rotation of five separate aircraft carriers, the defense of Israel with U.S. Navy destroyers, Saudi Arabia’s plans for investment in AI, and the status of Iran’s nuclear enrichment.  The interview wrapped up with a discussion of the number one geo-strategic problem left by Biden: the Russia-China alliance, with North Korea and Iran tacked on.  Highlights from the Jan. 15 interview follow or listen here.
January 29, 2025
NVIDIA’s Project Digits Brings AI Supercomputing to Everyone’s Desk
January 27, 2025 - NVIDIA’s groundbreaking innovation, Project Digits, is making waves in the tech industry. This personal AI supercomputer promises to bring high-performance AI computing to everyone, from seasoned professionals to curious students. With cutting-edge features and an accessible price point, it is poised to reshape the future of data analytics and AI development.
January 27, 2025
Rondo: Industrial Heat from Bricks
January 24, 2025 - For the time being, a world running on clean, affordable, and reliable renewable energy is an aspiration, rather than an achievable goal. While great progress has been made in reducing the cost of solar panels and wind turbines, we are still at the very beginning of a long process. According to reports from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), in 2022, renewable energy accounted for 29.1% of global electricity generation. This percentage would include hydro power and nuclear power, “old” sources of renewable energy.
January 24, 2025
Strengthening Global Alliances: GPI Partners with Ajeenkya DY Patil University
On January 13, 2025, the Global Policy Institute (GPI) and Ajeenkya DY Patil University (ADYPU) in India signed a landmark Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) during the International Seminar on Strategic Geopolitics and Security Issues at ADYPU. This agreement establishes a dedicated ADYPU-GPI Chapter—an important step in advancing collaborative research, fostering academic exchange, and developing policy frameworks on pressing geopolitical and security challenges.
January 21, 2025
“More Ships” Must Become a Battle Cry for Today’s Maritime Industrial Base
January 15, 2024 -This is a battle America can win. The mismatch between the Navy’s proposed fleet size and shipbuilding plans, and America’s strained shipbuilding capacity, is among the hottest topics in defense policy circles. “More ships” must become a battle cry in the Navy and across the defense department, with strong support from the Departments of Transportation, Commerce, and Treasury.  The US Congress is already gearing up for this fight, and President-elect Donald Trump has strongly signaled his continuing support for domestic commercial shipbuilding programs.
January 15, 2025
America Has a Drone Problem (From FOX News)
January 13, 2025 - President-elect Donald J. Trump wants to create an Iron Dome missile shield over the USA. But what about the drones flying underneath it?   “Mystery Drone sightings all over the Country. Can this really be happening without our government’s knowledge. I don’t think so! Let the public know, and now. Otherwise, shoot them down!!!” he wrote Friday on Truth Social.
January 13, 2025
Aptera will Launch EVs with Solar Panels
January 1o, 2025 - Can you have a three-wheel super-efficient electric vehicle, EV, with built in solar panels that produce some of its energy? Can this be the future of EVs? Yes, according to Aptera, a relatively new California based company soon offering a new type of EV: three wheels, lightweight, efficient, dependable, very spacious trunk, and relatively low cost. More on Aptera in a just a bit.
January 10, 2025
Made in America T-shirts?
January 07, 2025 – Due to the shock waves of globalization, American industry lost all or most of the labor intensive sectors. In just a few years, millions of jobs moved to Asia, China in particular, on account of the comparatively much lower labor costs. A huge number of U.S. manufacturing plants closed down and outsourced production to factories in East Asia, especially in China. The U.S. textiles and apparel industries were hit particularly hard.
January 7, 2025
Navy Standard Missiles Divide and Conquer 62 Miles Up (From National Interest)
January 06, 2025 - The confusion over SM-3 highlights why the incoming Trump administration must pay closer attention to missile defense production priorities, as I wrote here for National Interest. Standard Missile 3 Block IB, launched by Navy destroyers, made its combat debut on April 13, countering Iran’s barrage attacks on Israel by intercepting Iranian medium-range ballistic missiles in the exo-atmosphere, more than 62 miles above the Earth’s surface.
January 6, 2025
Boosting The Maritime Industrial Base for Navy Combat Power (From RealClearDefense)
January 02, 2025 - President-elect Trump’s incoming defense team will soon face a sobering fact: China’s navy is bigger than the U.S. Navy. “Our U.S. Navy shipbuilding is in a crisis and the U.S. Navy is dramatically shrinking, Sen. Dan Sullivan has said. By 2027, the U.S. Navy may be down to 280 ships while China’s navy hits 400.
January 2, 2025
AI Can Boost Urban Farming Productivity
December 30, 2024 - Artificial Intelligence, AI, can help boost the growth of a new modality to grow food: vertical urban farming. Yes, we are talking about growing edible plants in appropriately configured buildings in which the natural environment for various types of plants can be replicated, in fact optimized. This is what we learn from reading an article by Gaurav Roy in Securities.io titled Indoor Farming Set to See Efficiency Boost Through AI (September 11, 2024)
December 30, 2024
Will AI Restructure U.S. Healthcare Policy?
December 26, 2024 - As we approach the end of 2024, the integration of AI in the U.S. healthcare sector continues to evolve dynamically. An article by DLA Piper provides some insights about the latest moves in Congress regarding AI in healthcare. This revealed increased activity within Congress and federal agencies around the topics of drug development, care delivery, and insurance coverage, thus reflecting a growing recognition of AI’s transformative potential in patient care, medical research, and healthcare economics nationwide.
December 26, 2024
The Digital Divide Delays Africa’s Development
December 23, 2024 - The internet revolution affected every aspect of business, corporate organizations, government activities, military operations, and the lives of people in developed countries. To a lesser extent, it also changed the lives of hundreds of millions in emerging economies, depending on the degree of internet adoption and related costs and fees for companies and average consumers.
December 23, 2024
Slam the Backdoor on China but Keep American Global Business, Allies in AI
December 20, 2024 - Outgoing Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo has been tireless and effective in her efforts to keep China from accessing the most advanced semiconductor chips and other technology used to advance artificial intelligence.  Thanks to the hard work of the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Standards, Communist China can’t buy top-of-the-line chips without a license anymore.  On December 2, the BIS was applauded for releasing another round of controls on semiconductor manufacturing and high-bandwidth memory and sanctioned another 140 Chinese entities.
December 20, 2024
Filter Caps Provide Drinkable Water at a Low Price
December 18, 2024 - Imagine an extended bottle cap that contains filtering agents capable of making polluted water drinkable. The cap has two ends. You screw one end on an empty plastic water and on the other end you screw another plastic bottle containing dirty water. You hold the bottle with the contaminated water up and gravity will make it go through the built-in filter. This way, thanks to the filtering, clean, safe water flows into the empty bottle below. This ingenious, small size and light weight device is made by a company based in South America called Filter Caps.
December 18, 2024
Is Urolithin A the “Elixir of Long Life?”
December 16, 2024 - A great deal of money has been and is invested in the “wellness” industry around the world. Some of it goes into longevity therapies: supplements, treatments, and/or lifestyle changes that will allow humans to live much longer, without any of the ailments and impediments that we normally associate with aging, in terms of pain, reduced muscle strength and chronic diseases.
December 16, 2024
Texas Will be a Green Hydrogen Hub
December 13, 2024 - When most people think of Texas, they think of old western movies. They envision vast open spaces, huge cattle ranches, cowboys, and plenty of oil rigs and refineries. Those who are more up to date can also picture many LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) terminals on the Texas coast filling tankers that deliver massive quantities of U.S. LNG all over the world –in particular to energy hungry Europe in support of its major effort to end dependence on Russian piped gas.
December 13, 2024
The U.S. Navy’s Unmanned Orca Anti-Submarine Drone, China and the Pacific (From CBS Radio “Eye on the World” with John Batchelor)
December 11, 2024 - Meet Orca, an autonomous submarine, nearly the size of an 18-wheeler truck, and the biggest unmanned underwater vehicle in the Navy inventory. Its technical name is the Extra Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicle. What it’s designed to do is carry out autonomous missions. It has a tremendous capability to go out and lay mines to counter Chinese ships and submarines. Host John Batchelor, Gordon Chang and I discussed Orca’s unique mission in deterring China’s submarine force, and prospects for a renaissance in U.S. Navy shipbuilding. Highlights follow or listen here.
December 11, 2024
Bionic prosthetics are almost here
December 9, 2024 - An article published by MIT News, (A prosthesis driven by the nervous system helps people with amputation walk naturally, by Anne Trafton, July 1, 2024), describes the new frontiers of artificial limbs. Advanced electronics, blended with careful connections with the persons muscles, can create an almost perfect artificial limb that allows a “natural” way of walking or climbing the stairs for a person using a prosthetic leg. As the article puts it: “A new surgical procedure gives people more neural feedback from their residual limb. With it, seven patients walked more naturally and navigated obstacles.”
December 9, 2024
Green Economy Tomorrow, Climate Adaptation Now
December 6, 2024 - The outcome of the turbulent COP 29 climate gathering which took place in Baku, Azerbaijan prompts a couple of important considerations. One, the world community is not making any considerable progress on its declared goal to engineer a quick transition to non-carbon energy. Two, rich countries are reluctant to hand over billions of dollars to poor countries, so that they can invest in green technologies. Meanwhile, emissions go up, and so do world temperatures.
December 6, 2024
From Sewage Water to NewBrew Beer
December 4, 2024 - Some consumers today can buy and safely consume great tasting beer made with recycled wastewater. True or false? It is actually a true story. While some may find the idea of drinking any beverage made with recycled sewer water distasteful, if not abhorrent, this is now fully accepted by many. Brewerkz, a Singapore based brewery, a while ago launched NewBrew, a beer made using wastewater fully treated by PUB, Singapore National Water Agency. As Brewerkz says on its website:
December 4, 2024
Accurate Tests from One Drop of Blood?
November 25, 2024 - Some may remember the story of Elizabeth Holmes, the very young American entrepreneur, Stanford University dropout, who founded Theranos, a company that supposedly was able to manufacture blood test equipment that allowed to perform scores of blood tests utilizing only a drop of blood.
November 25, 2024
Aircraft Carrier Delayed by Budgeteers (From CBS Radio “Eye on the World”)
November 18, 2024 - Will Congress or the new Trump team fix the Biden administration’s shock decision to halt procurement of aircraft carrier CVN-82?  Stopping for two years could be catastrophic.  As I told CBS Radio, about 2,000 companies contribute to building an aircraft carrier, and “some of those long-lead suppliers may go out of business if there is a big gap.”  In a few years, we may not have enough aircraft carriers to cover all the hotspots in the world.
November 18, 2024
Can AI Help in Improving U.S. Military Logistics?
November 14, 2024 - The Wall Street Journal recently published an article highlighting what may be one of the biggest challenges that the U.S. military will face in case of a prolonged conflict in faraway regions: grossly inadequate logistics.
November 14, 2024
Finally, a Breakthrough in Battery Technology?
November 11, 2024 - Form Energy, a relatively unknown U.S. firm, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, and now also by many high-profile private sector investors, including Bill Gates, claims that it has created a new type of battery that will –finally– make renewable energy truly cost effective.
November 11, 2024
Will Nuclear Power Fuel AI Centers in America?
November 6, 2024 - AI revolution is gaining momentum in America. NVIDIA, maker of the coveted chips which constitute AI’s key components (85% of global supply), from nowhere reached a market capitalization of about $ 3.4 trillion, becoming overnight the second most valuable company in the world –higher valuation than Microsoft or Saudi Aramco. Having taken notice of the unfolding revolution, all the major tech companies have jumped into the AI space hoping to reap incredible profits.
November 6, 2024
Innovation Ecosystems
October 29, 2024 - What is the magic formula for successful technological innovation? In broad terms, we know. You need a country with a sizable market that can absorb commercially viable innovations, state of the art infrastructure, some great research universities that breed top notch scientists and managers with great new ideas, robust capital markets, availability of risk capital and venture capitalists that can harness it, rule of law and independent courts, zero corruption, enforceable patent laws. We all know that these are the necessary ingredients. However, in practice, nobody really knows what the right mix should be.
October 30, 2024
Army’s Future Tiltrotor Blazes a Trail in Software, Soldier Feedback (From RealClearDefense)
October 28, 2024 - Drones and unmanned systems are a big part of the Army’s future, but so is a revolutionary manned aircraft: FLRAA, the Future Long Range Assault Aircraft.  Read my analysis from Real Clear Defense below and here. In August, acquisition officials signed off on Milestone B, launching FLRAA toward first flight in 2026 and a potential $70 billion program.
October 28, 2024
Poland Will Be the New NATO Abrams Tank Center for Sustainment and Co-Production 
October 21, 2024 - The first of the Polish Army’s 250 new M-1 Abrams V3 tanks, the most modern version, will soon be delivered to that stalwart East European ally. Those combat vehicles will focus the Polish Defense Ministry’s attention on getting a maintenance and sustainment capability in place quickly.  They will need to avoid having inoperable tanks while they are urgently needed to deter potential Russian aggression.
October 21, 2024
Strike at Boeing Hits USAF KC-46 Tanker, Supply Chain
October 16, 2024 - With the strike at Boeing entering a second month, what about the impact on national security?  On Monday, President Joe Biden dispatched Acting Secretary of Labor Julie Su to Seattle for the first in-person meeting between a government official and the two parties.  Su’s mandate was to “encourage both parties to move forward in the bargaining process,” according to a Labor Department spokesman.
October 16, 2024
6 Ways Iran Could Strike U.S. in the Mideast or Here at Home (from Fox News)
October 10, 2024 - As I wrote for FOX News today, Iran’s terror goons are in crisis mode right now. Having seen their missile attack on Israel fail yet again due to Israel’s powerful defenses, Iran is now expecting an Israeli counterstrike. “There will be severe consequences for this attack, and we will work with Israel to make that the case,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Tuesday, October 1. All the G7 nations agree Israel has the right to strike back, President Joe Biden added Wednesday.
October 10, 2024
Solar Electrical Power from Fabrics?
October 7, 2024 - How about a tent that produces the electricity necessary to satisfy the needs of campers or field hospitals? Pvilion, a U.S. company based in Brooklyn, New York, can make them for you, following your specifications in terms of size and preferred material. Is this the new frontier of solar energy applications?
October 7, 2024
Electric Airplanes for Short Flights in America?
October 3, 2024 - Unlike in Europe, Japan or China, in America passenger railways have been neglected. While this may change in the future, at this time there are no fast trains networks. The only exception is the “Eastern Corridor” (Washington, DC – New York City – Boston) that is served by semi-fast trains. For the rest of the large country, to travel from point A to point B Americans have essentially two choices: drive or fly. However, large commercial carriers do not fly to small cities.
October 3, 2024
Water Used in Hydraulic Fracturing is Now Recycled
October 1, 2024 - Hydraulic fracturing, better known as fracking, is the phenomenal technological innovation that unleashed a U.S. boom in the production of oil and gas. Until a couple of decades ago, most energy experts agreed that America had practically exhausted most of its known oil and gas reserves.
October 1, 2024
Poland’s Secret Weapon Goes Beyond Abrams Tanks (From RealClearDefense)
September 30, 2024 - Poland has a secret weapon. No, not just the Abrams main battle tanks, F-35 stealth fighters, Patriot air defenses, Apache helicopters or other top-line equipment purchased by Poland.  Poland’s secret weapon centers on its intense national commitment to security against a resurgent Russia – and the favorable American opinion this inspires.
September 30, 2024
First-Ever ‘China Week’ Takes Aim At America’s Dependence On Beijing (From Fox News)
September 27, 2024 - The China fight is on.  Read my FOX Opinion piece here.  ICYMI, last week the House of Representatives passed stepped up to the Herculean task of passing 25 bills targeting Chinese intrusions into America’s economy and technology.
September 27, 2024
Desalination Technologies are Getting Better and Cheaper
September 19, 2024 - There is a major freshwater crisis affecting many regions of our planet. However, desalination may provide a viable solution. Significant technological progress is making desalination plants that allow to turn salty sea water into drinkable fresh water much more affordable. This is a blessing for an overcrowded world in need of more and more fresh water –for humans, farm animals, agriculture, and industry.
September 19, 2024
Fighter Planes Rule, So Why Is The USAF Delaying Its Advanced NGAD Plane? (From RealClearDefense)
September 16, 2024 - Take a look at the forces deterring Iran in CENTCOM, and one conclusion jumps out: fighter planes rule. Yet the Air Force has stopped dead on its program for a new fighter plane known as Next Generation Air Dominance or NGAD. The Air Force’s hesitation runs contrary to real-world demand. Admiral S. J. Paparo, Commander, INDOPACOM, wants NGAD. “Fully adopting fifth-generation aircraft by getting the Ford class certified for F-35C operations and expediting development of Next Generation Air Dominance are imperatives,” Paparo wrote recently.
September 16, 2024
America Needs Talented Immigrants
September 12, 2024 - It is a well-known cliché to affirm that America is “a country of immigrants.” That said, it is surprising that nowadays it is incredibly difficult, even for very talented foreign individuals, to become legal immigrants to the United States, and therefore be hired by tech companies or start their own.
September 12, 2024
The EU Retools For New Assaults On American Companies (From RealClearMarkets)
September 11, 2024 - The European Union (EU) has gone after American business with a vengeance for the past decade, imposing billions of dollars of fines against highly reputable companies, requiring product and service changes for Europe that primarily help European companies, and threatening many additional actions.
September 11, 2024
China Beats America in STEM Education
September 5, 2024 - Here is the hard truth. China is massively ahead of the U.S. in the number of schools, research centers, scientists and university graduates involved in the STEM disciplines. STEM include Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics. This did not happen overnight. This significant China advantage is the tangible outcome of an investment policy ordered years ago by President Xi Jinping.
September 5, 2024
U.S. Venture Capital is Now in the High Tech Weapons Business
August 29, 2024 - The Wall Street Journal recently featured Anduril, a defense start-up company and its founder Palmer Luckey, as an illustrative example of Silicon Valley’s venture capitalists’ new focus on new defense companies working on futuristic weapons systems.
August 29, 2024
With Focus On Red Sea, U.S. Navy Has An Aircraft Carrier Gap In The Pacific (From Defense Opinion)
August 27, 2024 - Sending the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier at high speed to the Middle East has created an aircraft carrier gap in the Pacific. Read my piece for Defense Opinion here, and below.
August 27, 2024
Kursk Pocket Shows Ukraine Still in the Fight (From Real Clear Defense)
August 19, 2024 - Ukraine’s war against Russia is a stalemate no more. Putin did not see this coming. And NATO is content to let Ukraine take the war to Russia. Read full article here.
August 19, 2024
Iran Beware: US Moves These 6 Top Of The Line Strike Options Into Position In The Middle East
August 12, 2024 - Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is making sure U.S. Central Command is prepared to attack Iran, and/or its proxies, if Tehran strikes in the next few days. Read my 8.12.2024 piece for FOX News here.
August 15, 2024
South Africa’s Solar Boom
August 14, 2024 - The African National Congress, South Africa’s governing party since 1994, is a sad illustration of African corruption and incompetence. Mostly for these reasons it lost its absolute majority in parliament in the recent May 29, 2024 elections. The most glaring example of this deadly combination of graft and inefficiency is Eskom, the state owned electricity provider. For decades, there has been no coherent investment strategy in new capacity, poor maintenance of existing power plants and transmission lines, and colossal thievery. All this resulted in what became a multi-year protracted electricity crisis that until recently appeared to be unsolvable.
August 14, 2024
US Nuclear Power Future: Small Reactors
August 7, 2024 - Could it be that the now moribund U.S. civil nuclear power sector will be lifted to new heights by innovative technologies? Maybe so, if the concept of small nuclear reactors gets traction in the U.S. and elsewhere, this way creating a new modality to supply low cost, emission free, electricity.
August 13, 2024
A Tale of Two AI Announcements: Governments Glum, Google Gritty
Jule 24, 2024 - Yesterday there were two notable announcements about the future of Artificial Intelligence that were diametrically at odds in tone and outlook. Governments worldwide are talking down AI and trying to figure out what it is, where it is going, and what they should do about it. U.S. private tech companies are carefully researching and applying the technology, taking big market risks, and helping the public capture the profound benefits.
August 6, 2024
The Vertical Urban Farming Revolution
August 2, 2024 - Soon enough the lettuce or kale that you buy at your favorite supermarket will be grown next door to it, in a high rise building. It will be reasonably priced and it will have great taste, just like the produce you are used to that is now grown far away, in large farms and then transported in refrigerated trucks to your market.
Uber Driverless EVs: The Urban Transportation Revolution
August 1, 2024 - The promise of electric vehicles, EVs, is that they will do away with internal combustion engines powered by oil derived gasoline. The elimination of internal combustion engines will translate into a dramatic reduction of harmful emissions caused by burning gasoline, this way helping mankind to reduce the greenhouse gases that trap the sun’s heat in the atmosphere. As we all know, the greenhouse effect causes higher temperatures, global warming, and down the line climate change.
August 2, 2024
Africa Will Miss the AI Revolution
August 1, 2024 - The Economist recently noted that The Netherlands, with a population of only 18 million, has more data centers than the entire African Continent, population about 1.4 billion. Africa will not have an AI revolution mostly because it lacks the physical infrastructure for AI –fiber networks and data centers– and sufficient electric power generation and distribution to run it. Unless this state of affairs changes —rapidly— the Continent will miss out on the enormous education and economic development opportunities that exist for those who can easily access AI.
Kamala Harris Should Seize the Moment, Embrace AI (From RealClearMarkets)
July 12, 2024 - Enthusiasm for the vast number of problem-solving, transformative benefits that Artificial Intelligence (AI) can provide has driven the stock market significantly higher in 2024, attracted a bevy of venture capital and other investments, and helps explain why the White House is taking a much more positive look at AI.
August 1, 2024
Air Force Wavering on New Fighter Imperils World’s Most Advanced Engines
July 16, 2024 - America has something China doesn’t: the world’s most advanced fighter plane engines. Unfortunately, the U.S. Air Force is teetering on the edge of losing that precious lead, by delaying or restructuring its secretive Next Generation Air Dominance, or NGAD fighter. My article for Defense Opinion is here.
The U.S. Marines: They’ve Got The Answer, But Not The Ships (From RealClearDefense)
June 18, 2024 - The U.S. Marine Corps has been developing solutions to the China problem. Numbers will favor the PRC in any crisis that features extended naval warfare within a few hundred miles of China’s coast. Hence the importance of the Corps’ Force Design effort to field forces relevant to such conflict and the urgency with which the U.S. Navy’s shipbuilding problem must be solved.
July 1, 2024
Five Ways AI Benefits The U.S. Military
Understanding the potential benefits of AI will play a key role in making America’s armed services more effective. Our newsletter below discusses the ways in which AI developments can make a positive impact on the military.
June 20, 2024
America Needs Maverick
WASHINGTON – Recently I happened to watch three movies and a short docudrama that left a strong impression. The stories are quite different and yet they have a central theme. In different ways they are an inspiring celebration of American resourcefulness, sometimes against the rules, resilience and dogged determination: the “can do” Maverick spirit.
June 18, 2024
America’s D-Day Pledge To Leadership Still Strong
June 6, 2024 - June 6, 1944, is remembered as a moment of great triumph and sacrifice and the beginning of America’s global leadership. Bonds were forged with allies Great Britain and Canada on the beaches of Normandy. Less than a year later, Hitler was defeated, and the peace won in Europe has lasted to this day. Freedom guaranteed by NATO extends to 32 nations and holds across Europe from Helsinki to Istanbul.
June 13, 2024
The Concept Driving The Army’s Air Assault Plans For The Indo-Pacific (From Breaking Defense)
June 5, 2024 - Chinese President Xi Jinping’s appetite for confrontation is rising. An emerging role for the Army in the Pacific will center on inserting forces to control short, sharp confrontations over islands and terrain features in the South China Sea.
Corporations Must Provide Job Security
May 29, 2024 - The United Auto Workers’ success in unionizing a Volkswagen plant in Tennessee suggests that the reported death of private sector unions is not imminent. Fifty years ago, even in cyclical industries US unionized workers were close to Japan-style lifetime employment, with any layoffs in business downturns allocated by inverse seniority, so that after a few years a worker’s position was guaranteed. In white-collar activities, long careers were predominant and layoffs were scarce. Yet in today’s knowledge industries and elsewhere, the social contract between large corporations and their employees has become one-sided, with layoffs commonplace and lifetime employment a distant dream. This places excessive costs on employees. As the recent history of GE, Boeing and other faltering behemoths shows, it also eliminates the workforce’s knowledge and skills and destroys shareholder value.
May 29, 2024
French President Macron: “Europe Can Die”
WASHINGTON — In an April 25 speech at The Sorbonne focused on security issues French President Emmanuel Macron stated that “Europe can die”. Let me be more dramatic: “Europe will die”, unless Europe, that is the European Union, or EU, wakes up and decides to engage in a massive defense spending effort, while at the same time creating a federal constitution headed by a federal government, with clear authority on security and defense.
May 22, 2024
In Ukraine (and Elsewhere) Russia and Friends Will Win by Default
May 1, 2024 - It is a sign of our troubled times that the much delayed vote by the US House of Representatives to approve a large package of military assistance to Ukraine (about $ 60 billion), along with additional packages directed at other US allies, has been celebrated as a triumph, yet another demonstration of American strong leadership when it comes to defending freedom and democracy around the world. Mike Johnson, Republican Speaker of the House, is now compared to Winston Churchill. Yet, this is the same Speaker who for months prevented a vote on the same package because of the pressure from members of his own Republican Party –in truth the openly pro-Putin wing of the GOP– adamantly opposed to military aid to Ukraine.
May 2, 2024
How The Left Long Ago Won The Moral High Ground
WASHINGTON — Beyond the complex Left versus Right debates, and the endless diatribes on the merit of this or that public policy advocated or opposed by either side, it is of crucial importance to stress that the Left has the enormous advantage of appearing to own the moral high ground. Whether by accident or by design, the Left defined its policies through words that have a positive and implicitly benign ring, and therefore an almost automatic moral appeal.
April 25, 2024
Low Earth Orbit Is A High-Value Domain (From RealClearDefense)
Low Earth Orbit – known as LEO – is the future for communications satellites. It’s also a high-value domain for national security. And it’s getting crowded. Elon Musk’s Starlink has over 5500 satellites on orbit and just launched 23 more Friday morning. Amazon is putting $10 billion into its LEO constellation named Kuiper that will build out to 3,236 satellites.
April 4, 2024
Our Economic And National Security Depend On Microelectronics No Longer Made In America
March 19, 2024 - In 2017, the Economist declared: “The world’s most valuable resource is no longer oil, but data.” The backbone of this digital economy is microelectronics. From simple switches to sensitive national security systems, today’s world runs on microelectronics. National security systems and every industry vertical making up our critical infrastructure depend on a technology stack comprised of semiconductors, integrated circuit substrates, and printed circuit boards (PCBs). Most of these components were invented and designed here in America but manufacturing was sent offshore chasing cheap labor and hefty government subsidies, primarily in Asia.
March 21, 2024
Why The Pentagon Needs A Quantum Czar
February 27, 2024 - Just when you thought drones, artificial intelligence and hypersonic missiles were the must-haves for future warfare, here comes yet another priority: quantum computing. Quantum computing literally changes the basis of information sciences. The Pentagon knows that, and has been fueling quantum information science research for years. In fact, across the government, there are no less than 14 quantum-focused centers at work on problems ranging from communications to extreme computing and entanglement distribution for secure encryption.
February 27, 2024
Patriots Among Us
February 22, 2024 - While we all enjoyed our President’s Day off on Monday, today is actually George Washington’s birthday. All hail to our first commander-in-chief. President’s Day was first consolidated to combine Washington and Abraham Lincoln’s birthdays, which was a good cause. But it has become watered down in the public mind, and now for many people it is a celebration of all our presidents. That is too bad, so the Lexington Institute has decided to go ahead and celebrate Washington’s birthday on its own with the below article.
February 22, 2024
America’s B-1 Bomber Teaches Iran A Firepower Lesson (From Fox News)
February 9, 2024 - On Friday, strikes by U.S. Air Force B-1 bombers demolished 85 aimpoints at four Iran proxy militia target areas in Syria and three in Iraq. And they did it launching from Texas.
February 12, 2024
Europe and the African Population Explosion
January 19, 2024 - Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON — Assuming that the ongoing, substantial migration of Africans to Europe will continue –if anything it will grow from substantial to massive– there is every reason to believe that in a few decades Europe will look more and more like an appendix of Africa. If this proposition sounds outlandish, here are the simple facts.
February 5, 2024
Air Force’s Sentinel ICBM Program Is Struggling, Potentially Impacting Nuclear Deterrence (From Forbes)
January 01, 2024 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. Bloomberg News reports that the Air Force’s effort to replace its aging ICBM force is facing substantial cost growth and multiyear delays. Called Sentinel, the program involves developing a new missile to replace Minuteman III and replacing a vast infrastructure of underground silos and launch centers.
February 1, 2024
Army Modernization, And The Virtues Of Moderation (From Forbes)
November 18, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. The U.S. Army is in the midst of a successful campaign to modernize its equipment and close gaps in capabilities needed for an era of great-power competition. This is a distinct departure from the uneven performance of modernization efforts during the Bush and Obama administrations. What changed? Four lessons are apparent. First, the Army developed a clear plan, a roadmap for modernization, in 2018 and stuck with it.
November 21, 2022
U.S. Marine Corps Could Be Left With No Effective Amphibious Warfare Fleet (From 1945)
October 20, 2022 - Issue by by GPI Fellow Daniel Goure. The Department of Defense may be creating a “perfect storm,” a situation in which LSD decommissioning and LPD 17 Flight II production terminations, coupled with increasing costs for the LAW, could leave the Sea Services with inadequate numbers of both large and small amphibs.
October 24, 2022
The Biggest Threat To America’s Global Dominance In Software & Services Isn’t China–It’s Washington (From Forbes)
October 10, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. Over the last 20 years, software and digital services have become the most vibrant sector of the U.S. economy. The pace of innovation is furious, and the impact on global commerce and culture is profound. At a time when America was losing ground in many traditional industries, companies like Amazon and Alphabet have redefined what it means to be competitive. That’s a good thing, because as President Biden’s Interim National Security Strategic Guidance states, “in today’s world, economic security is national security.”
October 11, 2022
A Diminished America Cannot Win In Ukraine
Looking at the ongoing war in Ukraine, the most optimistic assessment is that Washington, notwithstanding enormous efforts to isolate Moscow and huge amounts of aid to Ukraine, at best managed to prevent Russia from taking over all of Ukraine. This is not insignificant, but hardly impressive considering the economic and military weaknesses of Russia, our adversary. Russia is a second rate economic power. Its GDP is just somewhat bigger than Spain’s. When it comes to their war planning, it seems that the Russians acted on bad intelligence about both Ukraine’s willingness and ability to resists and the preparedness of the Russian invasion force.
October 4, 2022
Green tech investment could reach $5 trillion by 2025
August 17, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Andrea Zanon. For global markets, investing in sustainable business is the only way forward. Companies that do not participate in decarbonization will lose out. Green and clean technology “unicorns” are becoming the mainstream, disrupting the renewable energy, food, and mobility sectors.
August 21, 2022
Tribute to the great journalist Claude Salhani
August 17, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Sieff. When a Hezbollah suicide bomber drove a truck packed with explosives into the makeshift US Marine barracks in Beirut on October 23, 1982 and killed all 243 Marines sleeping in it, the great Reuters photo-journalist Claude Salhani was there. He worked with the rescue parties through the night trying to find and save survivors, pulling away the rubble with his bare hands. 
Guidance for America from wise friends
August 15, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow. Martin Sieff. The Biden administration remains determined to continue its dangerous confrontation with one thermonuclear superpower, Russia, while simultaneously escalating tensions with the other one - China. We continue to look in vain for cool, dispassionate analysis from Republican and Democrat leaders alike in Washington, whether among aspiring presidential candidates in either party or in the chambers of Congress, but there is almost none.
August 20, 2022
Morocco’s Road to Development
August 08, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – Morocco: here is a North African economy working hard to promote domestic economic development by attracting foreign investments. What are the tools to achieve this strategic goal? Create and sustain a business friendly investment climate. According to the US State Department, 2021 Investment Climate Statements, here are the building blocks of this strategy:
August 9, 2022
Beijing’s Blockade Of Taiwan Is The Latest Sign Washington Needs To Streamline Its Defense Trade With Allies (From Forbes)
August 05, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. The United States government maintains a complex system for controlling arms sales called International Traffic in Arms Regulations, or ITAR. It is designed to prevent military technology from falling into the hands of bad actors, but it impedes sending the same technology to friends–even when it is urgently needed. With Beijing now determined to match and surpass Washington in advanced technology
August 7, 2022
A tribute to David Trimble: A Nobel Peace Laureate Worthy of the Award
August 02, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Sieff. I got to know David Trimble quite well on his many visits to Washington during the completion of the negotiations that led to the 1998 Good Friday Agreement and through its implementation in the years after. In those years I was first Chief Foreign Correspondent at The Washington Times and then National Security Editor and Managing Editor, International Affairs at United Press International(UPI).
Business in Africa goes through Morocco
July 22, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. MARRAKECH – Thanks to a partnership agreement between the Corporate Council on Africa and the Government of the Kingdom of Morocco, the city of Marrakech this year hosted the US –Africa Business Summit, the flagship yearly event organized by the Council. Why hold this US-Africa Summit in Morocco, a country that most people would place at the western edge of the Arab world, more Middle Eastern than African?
July 23, 2022
Raytheon’s SPY-6 Radar Family Will Revolutionize U.S. Navy Operations (From 1945)
July 15, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Daniel Goure. The U.S. Navy’s new operational approach to winning a high-end fight with a peer competitor is called Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO). The essence of DMO is found in three core tenets: making U.S. forces (particularly naval platforms but also land-based forces) hard to find, hard to kill, and highly lethal.
July 17, 2022
Arbitrary Drugs Expiration Dates Are A Waste Of Money
July 14, 2022 - Issue Brief by Ziv Harish. It has been said that American urine is the most expensive in the world due to the many expensive vitamins and supplements that we consume, but which our bodies do not absorb. The same may be said about American garbage, into which we dump millions of dollars’ worth of unused medications simply because they are past their marked expiration dates.
COO Chris Calio Says Raytheon Technologies Is Proving The Value Of The Merger (From Forbes)
July 1, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. When Raytheon and United Technologies disclosed their intention to merge three years ago, they laid out a vision of a consolidated enterprise that would be nearly unstoppable in aerospace and defense. It did not take long for that vision to be tested: the new company had to integrate operations in the midst of a global pandemic. But as time goes by and the pandemic recedes, the business thesis behind the merger is still intact.
July 4, 2022
GSA’s Power Grab Over DFTS Puts Critical Defense Transportation Contracts At Risk (From 19FortyFive)
June 28, 2022 Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Daniel Goure For more than a decade, the Department of Defense (DoD) struggled to find the right contracting mechanism that would allow it to take advantage of the enormous logistics capabilities resident in the private sector. Third-party logistics providers have the experience, tools, databases, and procedures to support a network of transportation providers while minimizing both the cost and time involved in moving goods and materials.
House Strategic Forces Panel Warns Plan For Airborne Control Of Nuclear Weapons In Wartime Is Lagging (From Forbes)
June 16, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Advisor Loren B. Thompson. The Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee is warning that Air Force plans to replace aging E-4B Nightwatch command-post aircraft are lagging. The four modified 747s would be used to command and control U.S. nuclear weapons in a war. In fact, they might be one of the few parts of the command-and-control system that survives the opening salvoes of an East-West war.
June 20, 2022
Metropolis Doomed
June 15, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson. We are constantly subjected to propaganda from media journalists living in tiny apartments in crime-ridden major cities about how wonderful those cities are. That is partly a matter of taste, of course. However, the technological and organizational changes brought by the COVID-19 pandemic may finally end city life for those for whom that pathological taste is not politically and psychologically ingrained.
1930s, here we come!
May 29, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson. Pundits all over the media are proclaiming gloomily that we are in for a re-run of the 1970s. They are far too optimistic. If you look at the world with an unprejudiced eye, we currently have aggressive power blocs, rapidly escalating protectionism, overpriced stock and real estate markets and a huge mass of malinvestment from the last decade that will need to be written off. Guys and girls: that is not the 1970s, it is the 1930s, albeit with rather more inflation.
May 30, 2022
When Describing Historic Events Clarity Is Essential
May 15, 202 - Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON — There is a memorial plaque at a major institution in Washington, DC. It was created and placed in a very visible place to honor members of the organization who were killed on September 11, 2001. Nothing strange about this. Except that the al Qaeda plotted and executed terror attack that resulted in the killing of thousands of Americans in New York, at the Pentagon, and in an airplane that crashed in Pennsylvania
May 22, 2022
Win-Win Globalization Was a Dream
May 07, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON — On February 24, at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, not many observers had any idea that this European conflict would cause famine and high inflation in Africa, sky high energy prices in the US and Europe, and even cooking oil shortages in Indonesia. If this Russian invasion had taken place 50 years ago, probably the impact of what is and remains to this day a regional conflict
Navy’s Latest Shipbuilding Plan Is Not Good News For The Industrial Base (From Forbes)
May 13, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Advisor Loren B. Thompson. The number of warships in the U.S. naval fleet has not managed to get above 300 for two decades. Meanwhile, the country the Chief of Naval Operations describes as “our pacing threat,” China, is headed for 400 warships in its own fleet at mid-decade. The disparity is even worse than it seems, because Chinese forces are concentrated close to home, where Beijing also sustains a growing arsenal of long-range, antiship weapons.
Cleaner U.S. Oil & Gas Sector Catalyzes A Cleaner Industry Worldwide (From RealClearEnergy)
May 6, 202 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Paul Steidler. The staggering pollution from Russia’s pre-war, largely unregulated oil and natural gas industry is getting much worse. To offset this and drive significant environmental improvements in oil and natural gas production worldwide, it is essential to have dynamic, technologically innovative U.S. oil and natural gas companies. Central to a cleaner industry is the widespread adoption of data analytics
May 9, 2022
Russian Aggression Highlights Need To Bolster P-8 Poseidon Maritime Patrol Force (From Forbes)
May 5, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. Most of the war coverage from Ukraine is about what’s happening on the ground, but eventually NATO will have to rethink other facets of its military preparations in light of Russia’s aggression. One area that needs a close look with regard to both Russia and China is whether America and its allies have an adequate fleet of maritime patrol aircraft–particularly for finding and defeating hostile submarines.
Putin Learns A Lesson Washington Knows All Too Well: Military Power Can Kill People, But It Can’t Change Them (From Forbes)
April 14, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. Vladimir Putin apparently launch Russia’s invasion of Ukraine believing that resistance would collapse quickly. The opposite has occurred: the Ukrainians fought back fiercely to defend their culture and identity. Moscow now realizes if it wants to pacify Ukraine, it will have to wipe out much of the population. The lesson is that while military power can be very efficient at dispatching troublesome locals, it is nearly powerless to destroy who they are or what they believe.
April 17, 2022
End Of The Green Illusion? Not Yet
April 13, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. Now it is fairly clear. Getting to a green, decarbonized economy in order to stop global warming is a worthy aspiration; but realistically not an achievable goal, at least not in the next 5 to 10 years. It is an unachievable goal simply because we do not have cost-effective, scalable renewable energy technologies capable of reliably delivering all the energy we need to run complex economies at a reasonable cost.
Air Force Confirms It Plans To Slash F-35 Buy In 2023–But Can’t Explain Why (From Forbes)
March 28th, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. The Air Force publicly confirmed on March 28 that it intends to buy a much smaller number of F-35 fighters in 2023 than previously planned. It says it still intends to eventually buy 1,763 of the stealthy fighters, but at the proposed rate for next year, that would take half a century. Congress will have something to say about all this. Here are five questions Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall should be ready to answer when budget hearings are held:
April 3, 2022
What Happened To Putin’s Little Green Men? (From RealClearDefense)
March 22nd, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Daniel Goure. Moscow’s assault on Ukraine seems to contradict what we had anticipated about how a future high-end conflict with Russia would unfold. What happened to Putin’s Little Green Men, who were so effective in seizing Crimea in 2014?  Although information coming from Ukraine is often incomplete, it is clear that the Russian military began operations with a defective plan, poorly trained forces, abysmal logistics, limited cyber operations, inadequate air support, insufficient precision munitions, and bad intelligence.
Putin’s Biggest Ukraine Blunder: Energizing German Rearmament (From Forbes)
March 10th, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is turning into an epic disaster–for Russia. Its economy has been severely impaired and the reputation of its military is in tatters. However, that is not the biggest problem Putin’s ill-advised move has created for Mother Russia. He has managed to open the pathway for Germany to recover its lost status as Central Europe’s dominant military power.
March 14, 2022
5 Things NATO Must Do To Deter A Dangerous Russia (From 1945)
March 9th, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Daniel Goure. The U.S. and Europe must now come to terms with the reality that no set of common interests, economic, cultural, or environmental, will be sufficient to keep Moscow from pursuing its strategic interests at the expense of those of other states. This includes military means. The idea of deterring Russia must now give way to that of defending Europe from the possibility of further Russian aggression.
How To Defend America Against A Russian Nuclear Attack (From RealClearDefense)
March 13th, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. The conventional wisdom among nuclear experts has long held that defense against a large-scale nuclear attack is not feasible. Nuclear warheads are so destructive that anything less than a perfect defense probably isn’t worth the effort–and no defense is perfect. However, Russia’s repeated nuclear threats since the Ukraine crisis suggest that the West may have no choice but to try defending itself, otherwise it could be coerced over and over again
What The US Army Must Do To Prepare For A War With Russia (From 1945)
February 25th, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Daniel Goure. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is just the latest in a series of aggressions the Kremlin has perpetrated over the past decade on its path toward re-creating the Russian Empire and expanding its influence internationally. This latest attack demonstrates that the Russian military’s multi-decade modernization program is working. It also shines a spotlight on areas where the Russian military holds an advantage over its NATO counterparts
March 1, 2022
Putin’s Ukraine Invasion Makes Poland The Linchpin Of U.S. Military Plans In Europe (From Forbes)
February 25th, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. With Russian dominance of Belarus and Ukraine now a foregone conclusion, Poland is poised to become pivotal to U.S. military plans in Europe. Like Taiwan in the east, Poland’s loss to the West would be a turning point with profound implications for America and its allies. But if Vladimir Putin is intent on enforcing his demands against NATO, then the possibility of a future military campaign against the Polish state cannot be discounted.
Whether Russia Invades Or Not, Biden Has Handled The Ukraine Crisis Well (From Forbes)
February 14th, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. President Biden is living up to his advance billing as a foreign policy and defense expert in dealing with the Ukraine crisis. Operating within severe military, diplomatic and geopolitical constraints, Biden has fashioned a coherent strategy that may yet dissuade Russia from invading. Consider all the things Biden has gotten right. First, he has recognized the limits of intervention.
February 22, 2022
Putin Must Understand: Invading Ukraine Would Be A Historic Mistake For Russia (From 1945)
February 10th, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Daniel Goure. The odds are growing that Russian President Vladimir Putin will make the greatest mistake of his career by invading Ukraine. This is likely to result in the very outcomes that the Kremlin claims it seeks to avoid. A new assault on Ukraine would weaken the Russian government, hurt its economy, over-extend its military, strengthen NATO unity and resolve, cause Washington to increase the U.S. military presence in Europe
February 13, 2022
Ukraine Tensions Should Be A Reminder Of Germany’s Nuclear Role In NATO, Which Will Soon Depend On 30 Super Hornet Fighters (From Forbes)
February 09th, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. Recent criticism of Germany’s reliability as an ally tends to neglect many of the concrete contributions it makes to NATO. One of the least-mentioned contributions is that Germany’s air force is part of a regional nuclear force that deters Russian use of weapons of mass destruction against European NATO nations. It’s a controversial mission, but one to which Berlin has repeatedly confirmed its commitment.
More U.S. Military Equipment Will Help NATO Send Moscow A Message (From The National Interest)
January 30th, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Daniel Goure. Europe is closer to war today than at any time since the collapse of the Soviet Union. During his recent press conference, U.S. president Joe Biden asserted that Moscow had the necessary forces in place to conduct a major conventional land assault on neighboring Ukraine. Even if warnings from Biden and Western leaders can deter Moscow from acting on Putin’s threats this time
January 31, 2022
Russia Has A Clear Reason To Invade Ukraine Now If Talks Fail (From 1945)
January 11th, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Daniel Goure. This week, the U.S. and Russia are engaged in diplomatic talks regarding the escalating tensions on Russia’s border with Ukraine. It is a mistake to think that U.S. and NATO concessions regarding Ukraine will satisfy Moscow. President Putin is pursuing a grander, perhaps grandiose, strategy, aimed at establishing Russia as the preeminent power in both Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
January 17, 2022
The Kazakh Protesters Are Not Terrorists
January 09th, 2022 - Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – Just hours after the news of massive street protest in Kazakhstan, various pro-Moscow analysts around the world –from Europe to the Middle East– immediately opined that potentially destabilizing riots in a major, oil and gas rich country bordering Russia somehow benefit the US. Therefore, its stands to reason to conclude that U.S. intelligence
Financial engineering fuels U.S. weakness
January 04th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson. The sale to a Chinese company in 2016 of one of the world’s largest cobalt sources, controlled by a U.S. company Freeport McMoran (NYSE:FCX), is emblematic of U.S. national weakness, “wokeness” and decline. However, one underlying cause of that sale was the blizzard of stock buybacks and unsound acquisitions made by FCX in the years preceding its hurried liquidity-seeking selloff.
January 9, 2022
The Reckless Push For Electric Vehicles At The U.S. Postal Service (From RealClearEnergy)
December 28th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Paul Steidler. As Democrats regroup and forge ahead with plans to implement components of the Build Back Better legislation killed by Senator Joe Manchin, calls for the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) to be given billions of taxpayers’ dollars to electrify its fleet are likely to soon reach a fever pitch. Progressives pulled out all the stops to provide USPS with electric vehicle funding in 2021 and will likely double down in 2022.
December 29, 2021
The U.S. and the world passed peak productivity
December 28th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced last week that U.S. non-farm business sector productivity unexpectedly fell 5.0% in the third quarter of 2021 and was 0.5% lower than its level in the third quarter of 2020. This returns the U.S. economy to a pattern of ultra-low productivity growth that first became evident in the Obama years, a dismal trend which seems likely to intensify in the next few years
The Limits of Green Energy Technologies
December 27th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON — Here is our problem. We really want to stop global warming. But we lack the adequate green energy technology tools to do the job. We know that the traditional fossil fuels energy sources –coal, oil products and natural gas– produce unwanted side effects. Burning these fuels generates massive amounts of greenhouse gases that are trapped in the atmosphere. This is what causes global warming.
Army’s Future Vertical Lift Will Reshape The Rotorcraft Industry–And Companies Know It (From Forbes)
December 17th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. The U.S. Army has not developed an all-new combat rotorcraft since the Reagan years, but now it is developing two in a program called Future Vertical Lift (FVL). FVL is expected to generate demand for nearly 100 aircraft per year, making it by far the biggest source of demand for the domestic rotorcraft industry. That means leading companies must secure a berth on either the new recon aircraft or the new assault aircraft
December 19, 2021
How To Counter The Chinese Missile Threat: More Missile Defense? (From 1945)
December 13th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI fellow Daniel Goure. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is rapidly building a world-class military that could dominate the Western Pacific. As part of its near-meteoric rise, the PLA is rapidly becoming a missile superpower, capable of threatening the U.S. homeland as well as U.S. forces and allies in the Indo-Pacific region. In order to deter China and ensure that the People’s Liberation Army cannot use its missile power to conduct a disarming first strike against U.S. forces
On January 6 The Unthinkable Was Done
November 20th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON— The efforts to precisely determine the intent of all who participated in the assault on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021 are understandable but unproductive, because by now it is clear that the attack was not planned and executed by a cohesive force that had a clear strategic objective. What we saw on January 6 was a mob, a violent mob.
November 29, 2021
Are U.S. Missile Defenses Vulnerable To Cyberattacks? (From 1945)
November 18th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI fellow Daniel Goure. The Chinese hypersonic missile threat has made the United States rethink its missile defense approach. U.S. defense officials recognize that America’s missile defense capabilities, while formidable, are designed to track and shoot down traditional ballistic missiles and would struggle with hypersonic systems.
Engage Big Oil For Lower Emissions (From RealClearEnergy)
November 12th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Paul Steidler. These are heady days for bashing U.S. and European multinational oil corporations while also begging OPEC to increase oil production. While the U.S. House of Representatives is excoriating oil company CEOs, the Biden Administration is pleading for more oil from abroad. Talk about bizarre and mixed messages. A better course is to hold Big Oil accountable to its bold promises for cleaner energy production and to track how it is doing.
November 15, 2021
Facilis Descensus Averno, (Descent into Hell is Easy)
October 25th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson. Book VI of Latin poet Virgil’s Aeneid, translated by John Dryden, published in 1697 when poetry was poetry, is a useful window on China’s descent into renewed Communism – and indeed, the West’s tendencies in that direction. Residents of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union know how difficult and arduous it was to convert from Communism to capitalism, or even social democracy, but the road in the other direction is very smooth – at first.
October 29, 2021
Punishing India For Buying Russian Weapons Would Hurt America And Help China (From Forbes)
October 18th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. The Biden administration will soon need to decide whether to sanction India for purchasing Russia’s S-400 air defense system. Doing so would be a big mistake. Washington has been working hard to build bridges to India, and now it needs New Delhi to participate closely with Australia and Japan in a quadripartite coalition to contain China’s regional ambitions. Any imposition of sanctions at this point would be counter-productive...
October 25, 2021
Wobbly Germany In Wobbly Europe
October 24th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – The inconclusive outcome of the recent German political elections does not move the needle of Germany’s probable future directions by much. Under the long reign of Chancellor Angela Merkel Germany was wobbly and unable (in fact unwilling) to define and take a clear stand on its (and Europe’s) national security interests. After these elections, with Merkel now gone for good, expect no major changes.
Dwindling U.S. Merchant Fleet Is A Crisis Waiting To Happen (From Forbes)
October 08th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. Pentagon plans for sealift in a future war assume the availability of commercial cargo vessels and mariners. The government’s organic fleet of five dozen dedicated transports is too small to sustain a protracted campaign, and would require private-sector mariners to operate at full capacity from the initial days of conflict. So it should be a source of concern to military logistics planners that the U.S.-flag fleet of oceangoing commercial vessels has dwindled to a mere 182 hulls.
October 11, 2021
The palsied hand of capitalism
October 04th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson. “Every individual… neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it… he intends only his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention”
October 6, 2021
Isaiah Berlin and Elie Kedourie: Recollections of Two Giants
September 27th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Sieff. Sir Isaiah Berlin, one of the most eminent historians of political philosophy of the past century, passed away in 1997. Elie Kedourie, one of the leading experts on the 20th century political history of the Fertile Crescent, died five years earlier. Both men were among the most profound thinkers and analysts on the nature and problems of modern political nationalism. From 1969 through 1976, I was privileged to study and work under both of them in various capacities. It proved to be a life-defining experience.
September 30, 2021
The F-35 Could Be The Dominant Fighter For The Rest Of The Century (From RealClearDefense)
September 16th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI fellow Daniel Goure. The Department of Defense (DoD) has maintained its technological preeminence and military dominance for nearly a century based largely on its ability to continually upgrade and modernize existing systems. Examples include the B-52, F-15 and -16 fighters and the M1 Abrams main battle tank. Much of the current U.S. force structure is based around capabilities first developed decades ago.
September 20, 2021
Why Nothing Can Replace Large-Deck, Nuclear-Powered Aircraft Carriers In U.S. Strategy (From Forbes)
September 14th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. The United States is the only nation that operates a fleet of large-deck, nuclear-powered aircraft carriers–eleven in all. They are the signature expression of American military power, and by far the most powerful conventional warfighting system ever conceived. Unfortunately, much of the public never hears the details of why carriers are indispensable in U.S. strategy.
Why Raytheon Technologies Could Become America’s Biggest Aerospace & Defense Business In This Decade (From Forbes)
September 02nd, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. When Raytheon and United Technologies merged in 2020 to become Raytheon Technologies, they created an aerospace enterprise with unrivaled market breadth and technical depth. There is a real possibility that by mid-decade, RTX will be the biggest aerospace and defense business in America. At present, Boeing and Lockheed Martin have more sizable sales, but Boeing has suffered significant setbacks in both its commercial and defense units
September 5, 2021
A Cleaner Oil Industry: Driven By Data And Common Sense (From RealClearEnergy)
September 01st, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI fellow Paul Steidler. The world is going to need 50 percent more energy by 2050, including a large amount of oil. This challenge can be met while also addressing climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Through data analytics, U.S. oil companies are taking many steps to significantly cut their emissions soon. Policymakers should encourage these actions as the U.S. oil industry is large
Afghanistan Was Lost Long Ago
August 23rd, 2021- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – If we go beyond the hysterics, accusations and posturing that followed the sudden, messy fall of Kabul into the hands of the Taliban on August 15, it should be pretty obvious that the US effort to prop up the pro-western government in Afghanistan failed long ago. Kabul did not fall because of something that Washington did or did not do in the last few months. The root of this sudden collapse is old. It is to be found in the systemic weakness, maladministration and endemic corruption of the supposedly democratic government in Kabul that we tried to help and support for 20 years –yes, 20 years!
August 27, 2021
Why A Nuclear Deterrent Without ICBMs Would Be Dangerous And Destabilizing (From Forbes)
August 13, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. The United States has long maintained a nuclear “triad” of land-based ICBMs, sea-based ballistic missiles, and bombers. Now some members of Congress are proposing that Washington forego replacing its aged ICBMs. That would be dangerous, because the number of targets an enemy would need to take out in a disarming first strike would fall from nearly 500 to barely 20.
August 15, 2021
Forever Politicians Are Bad For America
August 09th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – Beyond the numerous, fairly well documented allegations of sexual harassment against New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, the lengthy report ordered by Letitia James, New York State Attorney General, reveals a powerful public official –Governor Cuomo– who routinely behaves like a moody despot. Based on this report, we learn that Governor Cuomo created a climate of fear and intimidation in his office.
The F-35 Is Going To Be The Free World’s Fighter (From 1945)
August 09th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Daniel Goure. The recent decision by the Swiss Federal Council (SFC) to acquire the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) as Switzerland’s next-generation air defense aircraft has made it all but official: the F-35 is fast becoming the free world’s dominant fighter. The Swiss conducted a comprehensive technical evaluation which found that the F-35A “has the lowest operating costs of all of the candidates evaluated.”
August 9, 2021
Cold Wars can be good for business
August 06th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson. The chilling in relations with China since 2017 and the discovery that China may well have been responsible for the release of the COVID-19 virus is forcing the world to accept that the globalization and free trade world of 1991-2015 is no more. Instead, with China an authoritarian Communist society that seeks domination and does not play by the rules of international trade, we are back in a Cold War like that of 1945-91.
Biden Tough On China
August 03rd, 2021. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – A recent White House Executive Order put all American investors on notice. From now on, they are forbidden to place American money into a large number of Chinese companies that are involved in building or strengthening the Chinese military and national security apparatus. This is an additional signal from the Biden administration that its “get tough on China” policy is not a momentary turn, a tactical move that could be easily reversed.
August 6, 2021
When Americans Stopped Believing In America
July 28th, 2021. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – Does anybody remember Lyndon LaRouche? He was a weird, if colorful, U.S. agitator who founded the National Caucus of Labor Committees through which he promoted a strange combination of crazy ideas mixed with a variety of outlandish conspiracy theories. LaRouche overtime built a national organization with significant international connections. He run for President many times as a candidate for his own US Labor Party.
U.S. Shipbuilding Is At Its Lowest Ebb Ever. How Did America Fall So Far? (From Forbes)
July 23rd, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. There was a time within living memory when America was the world’s biggest builder of commercial oceangoing vessels, and its ships carried a third of global trade. Those days are long gone. The U.S. now typically produces less than ten such vessels annually, compared with over a thousand in China. And barely one-percent of U.S. trade is carried on U.S.-registered ships.
July 26, 2021
Why We Know F-35 Support Costs Will Fall In The Future (From Forbes)
July 20th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. The Government Accountability Office put out a report earlier this month purporting to show that the F-35 fighter costs more to operate and sustain than U.S. military services can afford to pay. Somehow, though, the report failed to mention that F-35 is already more reliable and maintainable than the aircraft it will be replacing–not to mention more effective at executing key missions.
Davos and China offer the same grim destiny
July 16th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson. The World Economic Forum, sponsor of the annual Davos meeting, proposes a “Great Reset” of the capitalist system. The People’s Republic of China nominally adheres to the Communism of its founder, Chairman Mao Ze-dong. Yet in practice, the societies each advocates bear a remarkable similarity to each other and share two overriding characteristics: they are not regimes under which any free man or woman would want to live, and their prescriptions will lead to increasing poverty in the long term.
July 18, 2021
Why The Air Force’s “Bridge Tanker” Will Likely Be A Bridge To Nowhere For Airbus (From Forbes)
July 15th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. The U.S. Air Force wants to buy 140-160 commercial derivative tankers following completion of the present KC-46 production run in 2029. The effort is called a bridge tanker because it is the transition to a next-generation aerial refueler. Boeing and Airbus are both are likely to bid, in a replay of the competition that Boeing won ten years ago. There isn’t much reason to expect it will go differently this time since they are bidding the same basic airframes.
Providing Poland With The M1 Abrams Would Help Secure NATO’s Eastern Flank (From The National Interest)
July 05th, 2021. Issue Brief by Daniel Goure. The 2021 NATO summit put members on the record that they would build a flexible, agile, and resilient force architecture “with the right forces in the right place at the right time.” U.S. and NATO forces along the eastern flank facing Russia are the equivalent of the stand-in force Commandant David Berger envisions for the U.S. Marine Corps. They will be operating from the start of a conflict within the engagement zones of Russian long-range anti-access and area denial capabilities.
July 11, 2021
How We Will Win Against China
July 07th, 2021. Issue brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – In America and more broadly in the West we have come (belatedly) to the realization that China is not going to become “more like us”. We are now in the early stages of a new Cold War, this time with China. This being the case, as we are now engaged in a new ideological, economic and geopolitical confrontation with a country that is not just a competitor, but an existential threat, how are we going to deal with this threat? Very simple.
July 10, 2021
New Government in Israel faces major challenges
June 21st, 2021. Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Ralph Amelan. We have a new government in Israel. A bizarre rough slouching beast, at first appearance. Eight parties reflecting widely divergent political views have banded together with two aims in common: to deny long-serving Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu another term in office, and to put an end to the seemingly endless cycle of stalemated elections: four in the space of two years. Will it survive? Three pointers to the future.
June 27, 2021
Future Vertical Lift: Army Aviation’s Master Plan To Defeat China and Russia Without Breaking The Budget (From Forbes)
June 11th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. The U.S. Army is leading a rotorcraft development program called Future Vertical Lift that aims to transform the way it conducts tactical air operations. Its immediate goal is to replace Cold War scout and assault helicopters with aircraft that are twice as fast and can fly twice as far. And that’s just the beginning–they will also deliver 360-degree situational awareness, seamless networking and diverse effects in a sustainable and affordable package.
June 13, 2021
The Russian Submarine Threat In The Atlantic Is Growing, But A Low-Cost Solution Is Available (From Forbes)
June 08th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. The Russian Navy has recently resumed large-scale submarine exercises in the North Atlantic after a long hiatus. The U.K.’s defense secretary says Russian subs are “circling Britain’s entire coastline.” Unfortunately, the maritime patrol aircraft of America’s European allies have declined markedly in quantity and quality since the Cold War ended, and the U.S. Navy has plenty of other places around the world it would need to cover in wartime.
After Globalization
June 06th, 2021 - Issue Brief by Martin Hutchinson. As predicted in these columns a decade ago, globalization did not work, and has now gone the way of the dinosaur. It is not however clear what will replace it. The international institutions are still there, exerting their influence like stegosauri who missed the memo about the end of the Jurassic. Western “woke” governments are planning ever more elaborate schemes to combat climate change. That suggests that, to succeed, a country needs to be both well-run and isolated from international advice.
June 4, 2021
Deterring China Will Require Better And More Widely Distributed Sensor Capabilities (From RealClearDefence)
May 28th, 2021 - Issue Brief by Daniel Goure. The Indo-Pacific region is vast. The range, speed, and number of advanced weapons, both manned and unmanned, are increasing. U.S. and allied infrastructure are already within the so-called threat rings of potential adversaries’ offensive systems. To cover the environment and deal with growing threats, U.S. air and missile defenses will need increased sensing capabilities spread over a wide area, from the Western Pacific to the Contiguous United States (CONUS).
May 31, 2021
Russian Aggression In The Baltics Will Not Look Like Crimea (From RealClearDefence)
May 21st, 2021 - Issue Brief by Sarah White. In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in the largest land seizure in Europe since World War II. Since then, experts have made various predictions of what Moscow’s next target for expansion might be. The Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—have been one of the most commonly identified future hot spots and a particularly disastrous area for conflict to break out. Once Russian satellites like most countries in the area, they are often seen as the next most likely targets for Russian aggression.
Russia: Pentagon’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Spoiler? (From RealClearDefence)
May 15th, 2021 - Issue Brief by Daniel Goure. While the U.S. military likes to talk about being in an era of great power competition, it acts like there is only one real challenger: China. The armed forces are moving to reorganize and re-equip themselves to meet the specific dictates of potential future crises and conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region. Each is seeking to stake a claim on future resources and the prominence of their roles in countering the advance of China. Unfortunately, in its rush to make China the more imminent threat, the Pentagon is downplaying the threat from Russia, the actual most likely adversary, at least in the near term.
May 19, 2021
Fixing Our Most Important And Vulnerable Infrastructure–The Electric Grid (From Inside Sources)
May 05th, 2021 - Issue Brief by Paul Steidler. America’s most important infrastructure is also our most vulnerable – the electric grid. It is old and literally on the screens of foreign adversaries (e.g., China, Russia, and Iran) who have been attacking it and will continue to do so. For years numerous government agencies have warned about the many dangers to the electric grid. There are important roles for the private sector, the federal government, and state government to take in strengthening and protecting the electric grid.
Army Leaders Endorse Upgrades Of Chinook Helicopter, Cite Industrial Base Concerns (From Forbes)
May 06th, 2021 - Issue Brief by Loren B. Thompson. The U.S. Army’s objections to Block II upgrades of the Chinook helicopter seem to be softening. On Wednesday of this week, Army Chief of Staff James McConville told the House defense appropriations subcommittee that his service needs the additional lift provided by the upgrades, and is mindful of the industrial base impacts if the upgrades do not go forward. The industrial fallout really would be significant, potentially shutting the main production line at the biggest industrial complex in southeastern Pennsylvania and destroying thousands of skilled jobs across a vast supply chain.
May 6, 2021
Great Power Competition Demands Revitalization Of America’s Military Sealift (From the National Interest)
May 03rd, 2021 - Issue Brief by Daniel Goure. In an era of great power competition, the U.S. military has had to relearn a number of strategic facts. Perhaps the most important of these is the central role that sealift has played in the United States’ ability to project power abroad. During the Cold War, the U.S. was able to not only deploy large forces overseas but move and sustain entire armies around the world. Today, 90 percent of U.S. forces are based on CONUS. They will have to get to the fight. Over the past three decades, the US sealift fleet has been allowed to decline precipitously.
 Since the Montreux Convention the possibility of accidents in the Bosphorus increased eightfold
Since the Montreux Convention The possibility of accidents in the Bosphorus increased eightfold  by Prof. Dr. Mustafa ILICALI In recent years, the increasing volume of traffic across the Bosporus has unfortunately started to create new safety threats with each passing day.  While in 1936 only 17 ships per day were passing through the Bosphorus Today, the number is around 130.  In other words, since the signing of the Montreux Convention in 1936, the number of ships passing through the Straits has increased to approximately eight times the original amount. 13,370 ships passed through the Panama Canal in 2020. Each ship that passed paid an average toll of US $ 262,000.  Moreover, 18,829 ships passed through the Suez Canal in 2020, and the average toll per ship is US $296,000.  Based on the Montreux Convention, the fee charged per ship from the 38,500 ships that passed through the Bosphorus in 2020 is just around US $3,900. 
May 3, 2021
US Leaving Afghanistan Is About Politics, Not Geopolitics
April 23rd, 2021. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – Here we go. After some debate within his administration, President Joe Biden declared that all US troops will leave Afghanistan before September 11, a symbolic anniversary. This is not a decision contingent on conditions on the ground. We are leaving because of domestic politics calculations. Biden thinks that he will gain points with US voters by finally ending the now 20 year old “never ending war”.
April 26, 2021
Can Washington Borrow and Spend Without Limit?
April 07th, 2021. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – Parts of the US are still suffering from the devastating consequences of the economic freeze enforced because of the ongoing pandemic that began in January 2020. Millions of Americans are still out of work. Therefore, there is nothing wrong with Washington directing emergency funds to the millions of unemployed Americans who lost their jobs because of draconian restrictions caused by the Covid emergency.
Big Oil Is Cutting Emissions. With Big Data It Will Do It Quicker. (From RealClearEnergy)
April 1st, 2021 - Issue Brief by Paul Steidler. The world’s largest oil and natural gas companies are sprinting to cut greenhouse gas emissions and making significant progress. By reengineering many operations through digital technology and cloud storage – Big Data – emissions will be cut sooner, and without unnecessary, drastic steps that will drive up the price of oil and gasoline, thereby imposing a de facto, regressive tax. While the oil and natural gas industries have been slow to adopt data analytics, cloud computing, and related practices, there are compelling reasons to do so now. Lexington Institute’s Paul Steidler discusses these matters
April 5, 2021
Hypersonic Weapons Really Matter to U.S. Deterrence of Russia (From RealClearDefence)
March 27th, 2021. Issue Brief by Daniel Goure. Hypersonic weapons could dramatically change the balance of conventional military power between the United States and its major competitors, Russia, and China. Russia is investing heavily in hypersonic systems and is on the verge of deploying a variety of strategic and theater systems. The U.S. started behind its great power competitors but is racing to catch up. Hypersonics will enable the U.S. military to rapidly respond to the initiation of hostilities, strike high-value targets from much longer distances, and offset Russian advantages in dual capable theater missiles, integrated air and missile defenses, heavy armor, and electronic warfare.
Taiwan Tripwire: A New Role For The U.S. Army In Deterring Chinese Aggression (From Forbes)
March 26th, 2021. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. A potential Chinese occupation of Taiwan has become the most pressing concern facing U.S. military commanders in the Western Pacific. Washington needs to raise the stakes for Beijing in a way that more effectively deters aggression against the island nation. One way to do that is to permanently station a U.S. Army armored brigade in Taiwan that could help indigenous forces resist invasion. Armored brigade combat teams are among the most lethal ground formations in the world, but their real value in Taiwan is that they would force Beijing to contemplate engaging with U.S. military forces on the first day of conflict.
Return of the Whig Economy
March 24th, 2021. Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson. The British Industrial Revolution was a Tory Story! It began with the scientific exuberance of the Tory-dominated Restoration period, then slowed as the Whigs diverted the country into war and financial excess from 1689 to 1720. Even though the key inventions of the steam engine and coke-fired ironworks came during that period, they were not developed further. Forty years of Whig financial capitalism and social repression followed, before a Patriot King and a series of Tory governments unleashed the greatest boost in living standards the world has ever seen. Alas, since 1991 we have returned to Whiggery and worse.
March 25, 2021
Will Israel’s Next Elections End Its Long Political Deadlock?
March 16th, 2021. Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Ralph Amelan. With yet more parliamentary elections looming on March 23, opinion polls show support finally tilting away from veteran Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, "Bibi" still has powerful long-established dynamics in Israeli politics working on his side.
March 18, 2021
Ten Reasons Nearly Nothing Can Stop The F-35 Stealth Fighter (From National Interest)
March 4th, 2021. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Advisor Loren B. Thompson. Although over 600 F-35 fighters have been delivered to three U.S. military services and allied forces around the world, some people remain skeptical about the program’s success. However, signs of success are everywhere. It is the most survivable, versatile and lethal fighter in the world. It is being purchased by a dozen allies and is operational in nine countries. The fighter is being continually improved and is contributing technology to the Air Force’s next-generation bomber. It is also becoming cheaper to build and operate. No wonder the chief of staff of the Air Force said last week that F-35 is a “cornerstone” of his service’s future plans. I have written a commentary for National Interest here.
March 17, 2021
Irrational America Will Fail
March 12th, 2021. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – Americans love biographies. A classic sub-category of this popular genre is books about the lives and deeds of past US Presidents. It is surprising to see how so many different authors keep coming up with new angles and new material on Presidents Washington, Lincoln or Johnson.
No Way Out: Why Nuclear Modernization Is Necessary (From Forbes)
February 24th, 2021. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. Last week I participated in an online panel about nuclear modernization. My presentation focused on six slides that summarize why the U.S. has no choice but to modernize its triad of nuclear weapons. The argument comes down to this: (1) There is no effective defense against a large-scale nuclear attack; (2) The U.S. therefore deters attack by threatening unacceptable retaliation, but all the weapons in our triad must soon retire; (3) Maintaining an effective deterrent does not preclude nuclear reductions and costs a small fraction of the defense budget; (4) The Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine will host most U.S. warheads in the future because it cannot be destroyed in a surprise attack when at sea; (5) Land-based ballistic missiles need to be modernized because they greatly complicate the challenge of disarming the U.S. in an attack; and (6) Bombers provide flexibility in a crisis, but their cruise missiles are becoming unreliable and must be replaced to successfully penetrate enemy defenses.
March 8, 2021
Five Progressive Reasons Why President Biden Shouldn’t Cut The Pentagon Budget (From Forbes)
February 02nd, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. Some progressive members of the Democratic Party are calling for a cut in defense spending to free up money for domestic programs. However, that might create consequences that are at odds with what progressives want. The Pentagon budget is an economic stimulus and jobs generator for thousands of communities, not to mention the closest thing Washington has to an industrial policy. Only 3% of the budget is currently spent on prosecuting foreign wars in places like Afghanistan. Budget cuts could bring a return of readiness issues that endanger warfighters and undermine the new administration’s credibility on national security. Beyond that, the military needs a technology refresh if it is to keep up with China’s military modernization, and the jobs created in the process could impact voting in swing states.
February 5, 2021
Why The Age Of The Aircraft Carrier Isn’t Over Just Yet (From The National Interest)
January 31st, 2021 - Issue Brief by Daniel Goure. Large-deck nuclear-powered aircraft carriers will be a key part of the Navy’s force structure for the next half-century, at a minimum. The primary reason for this is the remarkable adaptability and flexibility of the carrier air wing. When the current, evolving air wing is married to the functional improvements embodied in the new Ford-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier (CVN), the result will be an advanced military capability of unparalleled flexibility, mobility, effectiveness, efficiency, and reach. The ability to tailor the carrier air wing to specific mission requirements, and even to add non-traditional aerial platforms into the mix means that the Navy will continue to project military power over great distances and across the spectrum of conflict for decades to come.
No Easy Way To Silence Bad Speech
January 31st, 2021. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – In our United States, the First Amendment to the Constitution establishing the protection of freedom of speech is the cornerstone of an institutional edifice proclaiming that this Republic was created to protect individual liberties. Without the full enjoyment of freedom of speech there is no real Liberty, and therefore no real Democracy. In America every citizen should feel absolutely free to publicly state, proclaim, broadcast pretty much whatever they want, without any fear of retribution. Others may agree or disagree with what I say. They may like or dislike it. But nobody has the power of censoring me or punishing me for what I said.
The Post Oil Economy Just Began
January 29th, 2021. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – President Biden has been heavily criticized by conservatives for issuing a raft of executive orders aimed at restricting activities of the US fossil fuel industry. Many critics described these as deliberate frontal attacks on the American oil and gas industry, motivated by nothing more than ultra leftist ideological animus. Other analysts concluded that these executive orders are the price a pragmatic Biden (who knows better) needs to pay in order to keep the troublesome green left of his party quiet.
Trump’s Long Shadow
January 25th, 2021. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – After the January 6th riots, for a brief moment we were led to believe that the Republican Party would do its best to come to terms with and shed the abominable legacy of Donald Trump. It was clear to all that the unprecedented violent attack against the US Capitol had been inspired and orchestrated by Donald Trump’s relentless barrage of lies regarding the November 3 “stolen elections”. He had convened his loyal supporters in Washington on January 6 as his last stand. His declared goal was to mobilize his followers so that they would do “something” to prevent the outrage of the final congressional validation of his opponent’s victory that was to take place that very day via a vote by both Chambers. The “something” that had to be done became the attack on the US Capitol, an unprecedented act of sedition.
Pentagon Report Paints Grim Picture Of America’s Industrial Decline (From Forbes)
January 13th, 2021 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. On January 12 the Department of Defense released its 2020 assessment of U.S. industrial capabilities. It is alarming compendium of decay that signals FDR’s arsenal of democracy is on its last legs. From shipbuilding to machine tools to semiconductors, the sinews of American economic and military strength are gradually draining away to other nations, particularly those in East Asia. The notion that America could surge military production in response to an emergency today the way it did in World War Two is a fantasy: too many skills have been lost, too many offshore dependencies have accumulated. It seems that President Trump was right to put industrial policy back on the national agenda, and that President Biden will need to do the same thing.
January 20, 2021
Oil Badly Hurt By Global Warming Fight
January 04th, 2021. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – Well known energy expert Daniel Yergin wrote a thoughtful WSJ op-ed on the horrible headwinds the oil sector is facing on account of the lingering effects of the covid pandemic economic devastations, (The Oil Industry Is Stuck in Virus Alley, December 29, 2020). He describes the pain caused to the energy industry by the sudden collapse of oil demand due to the virtual freezing of international and domestic travel and other key energy intensive economic activities. As hundreds of millions of previously mobile people stayed at home on account of covid, demand for oil-derived fuels collapsed.
America Should Be An Opportunity Society
December 30, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – Come January 20, 2021, Joe Biden will be unable to effectively govern America without at least a modicum amount of bipartisan cooperation in Congress. While we will not know until the Georgia January 5th vote which party will be in control of the Senate, for Biden the very best congressional balance scenario is that the Democrats will keep their very thin House majority, while they will gain control of the Senate with a one vote majority, thanks to the tie breaker vote that will be cast by Vice President Harris. This not so rosy scenario is based on the rather optimistic assumption that the two Democratic candidates will win both Georgia Senate seats on January 5th, a possible but rather improbable outcome.
Can Biden Create a Viable Green America?
December 25th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. As president-elect Joe Biden announced his team in charge of climate change and energy, it seems we are still at the virtue signaling stage. As expected, Biden nominated people with unassailable green credentials, starting with former Secretary of State John Kerry who helped shape the 2016 Paris Agreement. Beginning on January 20, 2021, Kerry will fill a new “Climate Envoy” cabinet level position, coordinating and directing all climate change issues for the Biden administration.
December 27, 2020
Biden Defense Team Inherits Navy Robotic Warship Research Aimed At Deterring/Defeating China (From Forbes)
December 23rd, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. Joe Biden is about to inherit a diverse portfolio of defense innovations funded by his predecessor. One of the most ambitious initiatives is the Navy’s effort to develop unmanned surface warships and submersibles capable of supporting the manned fleet in wartime. For instance, Boeing has a contract to deliver five robotic submarines capable of executive diverse missions with its modular payloads, from mine countermeasures to anti-submarine warfare to tactical reconnaissance. Sea Hunter, an unmanned surface vessel, is a testbed for experimenting with the use of robotic warships that can remain at sea untended for weeks, traversing many thousands of miles. Nobody in the Navy thinks such vessels can replace aircraft carriers or manned submarines, but they nonetheless could make the difference between victory and defeat in a future war for control of the Western Pacific.
Beware Of Politicians Trying To Rescue You From Technology Companies (From RealClearMarkets)
December 17th, 2020. Issue Brief by Paul Steidler. During the pandemic America’s large technology companies have been critical to the economy while providing significant health and safety benefits. If America did not have the services of our large technology companies, we would hear calls for the government to invest tens of billions of taxpayer dollars to invent them. Instead, there are now aggressive antitrust actions against these companies by elected officials and central bureaucrats that pose major risks to the engine of our economy and our health and safety.
Geospatial Intelligence–‘Geoint’–Becomes A Focus Of Military & Economic Competition (From Forbes)
December 11th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. After dominating the use of geospatial intelligence for decades, the United States is beginning to fall behind other nations, particularly in fostering a commercial ‘geoint’ industry. The science of using satellites to relate human activity to geography is equally useful for national security and economic purposes, but other nations in Asia and Europe have done far more to make the commercial side of the business attractive to investors. Existing federal policy makes it easier for China to dominate this and other facets of space activity, a goal that Beijing has set for itself by mid-century. If the U.S. wants to continue leading in space, and geoint in particular, it needs to do a better job of relating national security space policy to national economic goals.
December 14, 2020
Why Lloyd Austin Is A Superior Pick To Run The Defense Department (From Forbes)
December 08th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. President-elect Biden’s reported decision to nominate retired Army general Lloyd Austin to become Secretary of Defense is a wise move. Neither Biden nor the other announced members of his national security team have any intimate understanding of what modern war is like. They need at least one peer in their deliberations who has seen war up close, a professional who grasps the human dimensions of conflict. General Austin has seen combat at close hand from several perspectives, and has distinguished himself as one of the preeminent warfighters of his generation.
The End of Oil?
December 05th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – The Wall Street Journal reported on December 4th that “Denmark is to end all new oil and gas exploration with immediate effect as part of a plan to phase out fossil fuels by 2050, one of the most drastic moves by a crude-producing nation to curb carbon emissions.” Of course, given the small size of the Danish economy, and Denmark’s modest role as a crude producer, (about 100,000 barrel per day), this news will not move markets.
Five Reasons Return Of Boeing’s 737 MAX To Service Is Important To National Security ((From Forbes))
November 23rd, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. Aerospace is one of the few technology areas where America still unquestionably leads the world. Maintaining that edge is vital to national security. However, many observers don’t grasp the connection between the return of Boeing’s 737 MAX to service and remaining the world’s preeminent aerospace innovator. 737 is the main reason that Boeing is the nation’s biggest exporter. It is a source of cashflow that funds company R&D. It helps sustain an industrial ecosystem containing thousands of U.S. companies. And it is an expression of the American free enterprise system in action. Just as 737 MAX is critical to Boeing’s future, so Boeing is critical to America’s future.
November 24, 2020
America Still in Trouble
November 15th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – According to rosy pre-election predictions made by the Democrats and an army of pro-Democratic Party political commentators, November 3rd was supposed to mark not just the end of the Trump presidency but the strong national affirmation of a reinvigorated and now much more progressive Democratic party.
Why The U.S. Can And Must Win The Race For Hypersonic Weapons (From RealClearDefence)
November 04th, 2020. Issue Brief by Daniel Goure. Winning the race to deploy hypersonic weapons will be one of the most important achievements in U.S. national security of the 21st Century. For the U.S. and its allies, hypersonic weapons are more than a counterbalance to Russia and China. They hold out the prospect for fundamentally undermining competitors’ massive investments in so-called anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. The Department of Defense has put together a well-thought-out and funded program to provide all Services with hypersonic weapons. Equally important, the aerospace and defense industries of the U.S. and several allies are demonstrating the technical expertise and innovative approaches that are likely to make hypersonic weapons a near-term reality
November 7, 2020
Biden Win Would Be A Mixed Blessing For Aerospace, But A Trump Win Could Be Worse (From Forbes)
October 20th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. President Trump has been a friend of the domestic aerospace sector during his first term, increasing Pentagon weapons outlays and promoting overseas arms sales. However, a second Trump term could be problematic if he tries to decouple from China, withdraws from NATO, or ends U.S. membership in the World Trade Organization. Such moves could make it harder for companies like Boeing to compete with foreign rivals. As president, Joe Biden wouldn’t do any of those things, but he would be less favorably disposed to weapons spending and would inject greater concern about human rights into the consideration of arms exports. Biden would also raise corporate tax rates, increase regulation, and limit the access of industry executives to the White House and federal agencies. So no matter who wins the election, challenges lie ahead for America’s aerospace industry.
Will President Biden Make The Same Mistake On Missile Defense That President Obama Did? (From the National Interest)
October 24th, 2020. Issue Brief by Daniel Goure. All the services understand that both their legacy fixed facilities (such as Guam) and new expedient bases will be subject to an an expanded array of threats, including attempts by unconventional forces to penetrate their perimeters. Expedient bases face the additional challenge of providing perimeter security while simultaneously setting up a new base, conducting missions, and eventually conducting a withdrawal. While the main threat to military facilities may come from enemy ballistic and cruise missiles, it is time to consider the possibility of unconventional attacks involving small drones and infiltrators. Defending these facilities will require rapidly deployable sensor systems.
October 29, 2020
Will President Biden Make The Same Mistake On Missile Defense That President Obama Did? (From Forbes)
October 23rd, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. When Barack Obama became president in 2009, he almost immediately set about scaling back missile defense efforts for protecting the American homeland that he had inherited from his predecessor. In the end, he killed almost everything. The only program that remained, Ground-based Midcourse Defense, languished for years. Then Obama’s team discovered that all the warnings they had received about North Korea’s nuclear program were true. So they had to begin building back what they had cut or killed. Will President Biden make the same mistake? If he does, the U.S. could be left vulnerable to increasingly sophisticated North Korean ballistic missiles and a new generation of Russian/Chinese hypersonic weapons.
The emerging global one-party state
October 12th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson. Twenty years ago, I was strongly in favor of globalization. I recognized the theoretical benefits it could bring and believed that poor countries could get richer while rich countries and their inhabitants did not get poorer. Alas, I favored a globalization that we did not get, and that maybe does not exist. Politics, as always, messes up the process. Once you take account of politics, it becomes clear that extreme globalization must be fought tooth and nail.
October 19, 2020
The use and abuse of Supreme Courts
October 08th, 2020. Issue Brief by Martin Hutchinson. Every economic textbook trumpets the need for the rule of law as a safeguard for economic transactions, and will tell you that one major reason for many Third World countries’ poverty is their uncertain legal system and bribery-susceptible judges. Yet to have a rule of law, we need a court system to enforce the law and general agreement on what the law says. Since words can have multiple meanings which change over time, Supreme Courts of some sort or another have been instituted in many countries to interpret them. That is where the trouble starts.
October 8, 2020
California, China and Belarus
October 04th, 2020. Issue Brief by Martin Hutchinson. The world economy has come a very long way from the small-government, unregulated free-market model so celebrated by Adam Smith and other classical economists. Today, even in countries that claim to be committed to capitalism, taxes, monetary policy, regulations and state spending have produced huge distortions. To illustrate how huge, I thought I would compare the economic models of three jurisdictions: California, the high-tech Mecca supposedly a beacon of freedom, China, the state-controlled behemoth that claims to have a new and better economic model, and the universally despised “Communist” dictatorship of Belarus.
October 4, 2020
The Power Of A Growing International F-35 Community
September 25th, 2020. Issue Brief by Daniel Goure. The United States is rapidly building an international community based around the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. The military value of such a community is indisputable. The F-35 will be one of the pillars supporting the creation of a new, sensor-rich way of warfare. But as the negotiations that led to the opening of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) demonstrated, potential international sales of the F-35 can provide significant diplomatic leverage as well. Moreover, experience has shown that operating the same platform and training with it alongside the same planes from other nations can bring militaries closer together. By managing the quality of the software and types of weapons available on the UAE’s fighters, the U.S. should be able to ensure Israel’s qualitative military edge.
September 27, 2020
House Acting On Nonpartisan Postmaster General Act
September 16th, 2020. Issue Brief by Paul Steidler. On August 25, Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), chair of the committee, introduced H.R. 8109, the Nonpartisan Postmaster General Act. The crux of the measure is to prevent anyone who has held elected office in the past four years, or served as “an officer, director, or employee” of a political party from becoming Postmaster General. It also bars those serving on the Board of Governors from soliciting campaign funds or holding elected office.
Despite Pandemic, The U.S. Army Is In Its Best Shape In A Generation. Here’s Why.
September 10th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. The U.S. Army was a mess when Donald Trump became president in January of 2017. Only two of its brigades were in a high state of readiness, its modernization plan was faltering, and the Army seemed trapped in wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Today, four years later, the Army has been transformed. What happened? Five things stand out: a team at the top with good chemistry that agreed on what had to be done to fix the institution; more money better spent; fewer wars, better waged; steady progress on weapons modernization; and multifaceted efforts to improve soldier training.
When Data Cannot Be Trusted
September 7th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. Economics is a very imperfect science. Still, it has some shot at credibility because calculations, assumptions, assessment and scenarios worked on and presented by economists are based on the analysis of hard data. I am talking about solid numbers on the size and variations of economic sectors, public spending, GDP growth, unemployment level, tax revenue, electricity consumption, balance of trade, and a lot more.
September 12, 2020
The Arrogant: “Rules Do Not Apply To Me”
August 29th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. A commentator who apparently knows Steve Bannon quite well, (Bannon is a conservative politics strategist who advised Donald Trump during the 2016 campaign), expressed surprise when the news broke that Bannon and others had been arrested and charged with the crime of defrauding donors who had given money to a symbolic project about building a piece of the “famous” US-Mexico border that Donald Trump campaigned on. (The Trump administration has no part in this project). Well, if the charges can be proven, it appears that Bannon and other associates misappropriated part of the money donated and illegally diverted it to other pursuits, this way betraying the donors and breaking the law.
August 30, 2020
When Education Is Valued
August 23rd, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. Discussing Joe Biden’s pick for Vice President, it has been noted that Senator Kamala Harris’ mother came from the top placed Brahmin caste in Tamil, a state in south eastern India. While we know that the Indian caste system created hereditary privileges for those lucky enough to be born in the Brahmin caste, slated to become priests and academics, it is important to stress that the Tamil Brahmins, (colloquially known as Tambrams), were not just an entitled social class with hereditary power and prestige. They strongly cultivated education, for themselves and their offspring, as an extremely important value and key priority.
We Lost A Shared Reality
August 20th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. May be this was never true; but for a very long time many in America could argue that, whatever our political or ideological differences, we all shared the same facts based reality. We may have differed on what to do about issues and problems; but at least in a broad sense we were basing our judgments, opinions and counsel on the same facts.
August 21, 2020
Climate Emergency?
August 17th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. Most sensible people would agree today that climate change due to global warming is a serious problem. And everybody now knows that at the source of all this we find man-made increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. And we also know that all this is happening because we humans keep burning significant –indeed increasing– amounts of high emissions fossil fuels in order to produce the energy we need to power the world economy.
Japan’s Rethink Of Aegis Ashore Could Tie Up Navy, Increase Costs And Cause Delays
August 11th 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. On June 15, Japan’s defense minister surprised Washington by suspending work on Aegis Ashore, a system designed to defend the home islands against a North Korean missile attack. Apparently Tokyo will need to craft a modified plan that minimizes the chance interceptor boosters will fall in civilian areas. That’s fine, but what it shouldn’t do is try shifting the land-based approach to sea. Defending the Japanese homeland against missile attack from warships would tie up scarce naval assets, greatly increase costs, limit growth options, and lead to multiyear delays. Aegis Ashore needs to proceed with modest adjustments, because the threat posed by North Korea is urgent.
August 13, 2020
The Demise of Brooks Brothers and Lord & Taylor
August 12th 2020. Issue Brief by Martin Hutchinson. Lord & Taylor’s bankruptcy closely followed on that of Brooks Brothers. That suggests a common trend, a Götterdämmerung of the preppie WASP. Certainly, other factors, the COVID-19 lockdowns and the ineptitude of private equity, played a role also. But there is an overall zeitgeist at work, social as well as economic, and it portends a scruffy, style-less down-market future.
Election-Year Attacks On Big Tech Will Undercut Peace And Prosperity
August 01st, 2020. Issue Brief by Daniel Goure. It’s election season. Politicians at both the federal and state levels are looking for ways of bolstering their reelection prospects. One way of doing this is to stage public spectacles, the modern version of ancient Rome’s gladiatorial games, designed to gain support for politicians from average voters. The most recent example of this strategy in action has been a campaign of attacks on so-called Big Tech: companies such as Facebook, Amazon, Apple and Google.
August 6, 2020
Impact Of Pentagon Weapons Spending On Jobs (And Votes) In Four Battleground States
July 30th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Advisor Loren B. Thompson. U.S. presidential elections tend to be decided by small numbers of voters in a handful of battleground states. Partisan sentiment is so evenly split in those states that seemingly minor factors can decide who wins all of a state’s electoral college votes. So the fact that weapons makers play a major role in the economies of states like Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania has intriguing implications for the November election.
July 31, 2020
The long-term economic effects of Covid-19
July 30th, 2020. Issue Brief by Martin Hutchinson. Five months after the Chinese-origin coronavirus impinged in a big way on our lives, it is finally becoming clear that it is not going away, and that the world will have to take account of it and its future cousins for many years to come. Accordingly, the world economy and life in general will suffer some major changes. The future will be very different from what we had imagined, obviously for the worse but in just a few respects for the better. The quicker we adapt, the better.
The End of Hong Kong
June 05th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach. WASHINGTON – Hong Kong as we knew it –an island of economic (and at least to some extent) political freedom living a somewhat precarious, semi-independent existence as a special status appendage to mainland China– is now finished. China just killed it.
July 19, 2020
Even German regulators are useless
June 30th, 2020. Issue Brief by Martin Hutchinson. Following the discovery of fraud at the German payments processor Wirecard, the media are asking how German regulators can be so clueless. That is the wrong question. If anybody can make regulation work, Germans, precise, efficient, un-corrupt and indomitable can do so. So, the problem must be, not that German regulators are inept, but that regulation as a whole cannot catch fraud. As 2008 proved, it cannot catch sophisticated cutting-edge scams, either. So wouldn’t we be better off without it?
July 1, 2020
How bad government actions prolong recessions
June 24th, 2020. Issue Brief by Martin Hutchinson. Governments and central banks worldwide have responded to the Covid-19 epidemic by massive doses of monetary and fiscal stimulus. Little of the money thrown at the problem has done any good. However, the further economic distortions governments have caused will have one long-term effect: they will delay and enfeeble recovery. Ever since 1929, government actions have prolonged depressions; you would think by now they would have learned better.
June 24, 2020
Black Lives Matter Protests in Britain
June 21st, 2020. Issue Brief by Michael Binyon. Just like the global fall-out a year ago from the MeToo scandals on sexual harassment in America, so the anger and riots following the killing of George Floyd, a black man arrested in Minnesota, have found a powerful echo across much of Europe – nowhere more so than in Britain.
June 22, 2020
The NATO 2030 Agenda Needs to Include Strengthening U.S.-Polish Defense Relationship
June 13th, 2020. Issue Brief by Daniel Goure. Earlier this week, NATO’s Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, launched a new initiative, NATO 2030, to strengthen the Alliance and prepare it for new challenges over the next several decades. NATO 2030 could not come at a more important moment for the Alliance. The Alliance’s geographic, demographic, economic and technological circumstances have all changed significantly over the past three decades. One element of this new security environment is the growing importance of Poland in NATO’s defense strategy. It is important to help that country improve its military capabilities as part of the shift of NATO’s focus eastward. Poland is already acquiring U.S. Patriot air and missile defense systems and has signed an agreement to purchase F-35A stealth fighters.
June 16, 2020
Claims Of Aircraft Carrier Vulnerability Are False, But The Versatility Is Real
June 09th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. There has been a persistent drumbeat of concern since the Cold War ended about the supposed vulnerability of the U.S. Navy’s nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. The nature of the threat and the likely perpetrators change over time, but somehow the danger to the carriers is always there–at least in the minds of some pundits. It turns out, though, that the carriers aren’t really as doomed as some claim. In fact, Pentagon analysts who want to reorganize the Navy are turning away from the vulnerability thesis as a rationale for change. That’s progress, but it seems that many around Secretary of Defense Mark Esper still don’t grasp the versatility and value of large-deck, nuclear-powered carriers.
Into a De-Globalized World
June 04th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson. This column has been predicting de-globalization for almost a decade – the June 2010 piece “Back to the Kaiser’s World” was its first example of this theme. Now that the coronavirus has caused everybody else to leap onto this bandwagon, it is worth examining what the new de-globalized world might look like. While it has its downsides, it is overall not an unattractive prospect.
June 5, 2020
Another Critical Supply Chain America Must Bring Home
May 27th, 2020. Issue Brief by Paul Steidler. In recent weeks, Americans have been aghast and disgusted to see the dangerous extent to which we rely on China for personal protective equipment so vital to healthcare workers. The United States electric system has also become increasingly dependent on foreign suppliers for essential items, including software components that can easily be attacked. A smooth functioning electric grid is essential to our way of life, as well as America’s health and safety.  As such, it is encouraging that a May 1 Executive Order begins the process to strengthen the bulk-power system by ensuring that critical components are made in the United States.
May 29, 2020
True Globalization Must Rest On Shared Values
May 24th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – The globalization we know has been driven primarily by the explosion of new cross border business opportunities created by truly disruptive technological innovation. Almost overnight, broadband internet (enabled by a robust global network of fiber optic cables) created a new, zero-cost modality to communicate and share enormous amount of data across the globe.
Tesla Batteries and Climate Change
May 20th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. Notwithstanding solemn pledges issues by many governments, no country that really matters is taking the fight against climate change seriously. Headline grabbing global agreements detailing ambitious emission reduction goals mean almost nothing, as they are purely voluntary, and therefore non verifiable, and certainly not enforceable.
May 22, 2020
A Pentagon Procurement Program That Seems Doomed To Fail
May 16th, 2020. Issue Brief by Daniel Gouré. The Pentagon writes lots of large, long-term contracts, particularly for major weapons platforms. Over the past several decades, the size and duration of contractors for services, particularly in the areas of information technology (IT) and networking, have increased significantly. The problem with massive, long-duration IT contracts is that the pace of technological change often makes them out-of-date almost from the start. An example of one such big contract is the Navy’s new contract to manage multiple IT networks, called the Next Generation Enterprise-Recompete (NGEN-R). The Navy recently awarded this contact to a company without experience with Navy and Marine Corps networks. The Navy’s plan to modernize its IT networks is likely to be dead in the water for an extended period while the NGEN-R contract transitions and networks struggle to deal with the new reality of communications in the era of COVID-19.
Air Force ‘Digital Century Series’ Fighters: Technologically Exciting, Operationally Unworkable
May 15th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson. The Air Force has a vision of future fighter development that involves buying many different aircraft with limited service lives in small lots. Called the Digital Century Series, it is an attempt to leverage developments like digital engineering to stay ahead of the Chinese. It’s an exciting vision of what recent innovations can enable, but its operational implications are not so enticing. The tactical air fleet that results would be hard to synchronize in wartime, hard to sustain, hard to train pilots for, hard to use in coalition warfare, and hard to build a political base for–which is crucial to maintaining funding.  I have written a commentary for Forbes.
Covid-19: Impact on Global Politics and International Institutions – Takeaways and Reflections
May 13, 2020 - Issue Brief by Dr. Mark Meirowitz: As a result of the momentous events confronting the world community and its leadership, there has been a great deal of analysis and reflection on what the impact of COVID-19 has been, and will be, on global politics and international institutions. The experts are divided on these issues, which leads to the observation I once heard from a seasoned diplomat – that prognostication in world affairs is certainly not an exact science. Nevertheless, there are some reasonable takeaways that might follow from the current crisis.
May 13, 2020
Will the U.S. become a big Argentina?
May 12th, 2020. Issue Brief by Martin Hutchinson. The U.S. is currently projected to run a federal budget deficit of $3.8 trillion, about 19% of GDP, in the fiscal year ending on September 30, 2020, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Meanwhile interest rates are held flat at zero, and the Fed is beginning to purchase junk bonds to provide “stimulus”. We are in uncharted waters – or are we? There is a country that has intermittently pursued policies like this ever since 1944 – Argentina. That country’s past may well be our future.
Raytheon Technologies Is Posturing To Be The Pentagon’s Top Cyber Supplier–Both Offensive And Defensive
May 08, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Advisor Loren B. Thompson. Raytheon Technologies, the merged aerospace and defense operations of Raytheon and United Technologies, is a very big enterprise. So big, in fact, that it will take analysts a while to sort out all of the company’s diverse competencies. When they do, it will become apparent that supporting offensive and defensive cyber operations for the national security establishment is a major business line. No company surpasses RTX (its stock symbol) in the depth and breadth of cyber expertise provided to the defense department, intelligence community, and various civil agencies of the government. I have written a commentary for Forbes.
May 9, 2020
Early Lessons From The U.S. Army’s Campaign To Conquer COVID-19
May 06, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Advisor Loren B. Thompson. The U.S. Army has done a remarkably effective job of responding to COVID-19. It has minimized the spread of the viral infection within its ranks, and helped local communities to cope with a surge in cases. So what lessons have Army leaders learned to date from their campaign to defeat the virus? Here are eight: (1) listen to soldiers in the field, (2) don’t wait to make hard choices, (3) discipline makes a difference, (4) keep the threat in perspective, (5) there’s no substitute for organic expertise, (6) you can’t contract for bravery, (7) be sensitive to community impacts, and (8) adapt to keep core missions on track. I have written a commentary for Forbes.
Private Companies Getting Us Through the Lockdown
May 02, 2020. Issue Brief by Daniel Goure. The COVID-19 pandemic has taught all Americans about the importance of critical infrastructure and essential workers to our survival, as individuals and as a nation. Clearly, our health care system, encompassing hospitals, medical supply providers, pharmaceutical companies, scientists, doctors, nurses, technicians, support staff, and emergency response personnel, is at the top of the list. So too are the companies and people involved in the food supply chain from farm to table. Related to these two sectors is the transportation network: roads, rails and air transport, certainly, but also the delivery companies and truckers that continue to bring orders to our front doors throughout the crisis. Likewise, our communications infrastructure, particularly internet companies, cloud providers and content producers. A company that bridges virtually all of these critical infrastructure sectors is Amazon. Along with a unique class of private companies such as UPS, Walmart and Microsoft, they have been an essential part of the infrastructure that has held this country together.
How We Should Think About the Odds of Dying From Covid-19
May 03, 2020. Issue Brief by Lucian Pugliaresi. As government officials consider relaxing the lockdown of the national economy, there remains concern among many in the population that the risks of dying from Covid-19 are too high and that government decisions authorizing a return to work are premature. Putting aside the trauma and associated pain and suffering from contracting the virus, the central concern is whether people would likely lose their lives by returning to work, going to a restaurant, or even visiting the hair salon or gym. At the same time, the economic costs of the lockdown are imposing catastrophic and long-term damage to the national economy.
May 4, 2020
How Aerojet Rocketdyne Manages To Play An Outsized Role In The U.S. Defense Supply Chain
May 01, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Advisor Loren B. Thompson. U.S. policymakers in recent years have become increasingly concerned about the fragility of the defense supply chain. Critical suppliers can become choke-points in the production process if their operations are impaired and no alternate source exists. A case in point is Aerojet Rocketdyne, one of only two major domestic sources of space and missile propulsion following a wave of sector consolidations. AJRD, to use its stock symbol, has a broader range of competencies in its selected field than any other company, and on many U.S. military systems it is the only source of essential production inputs. Aerojet thus exercises outsized influence over the defense industrial base, despite its relatively small size.
May 2, 2020
US Response to Coronavirus Dictated by Panic, Not Policy
April 28, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. WASHINGTON – Nobody is prescient. No one could have foreseen the timing and the extent of the coronavirus pandemic explosion which originated in China and then from there spread all over the world. However, as I noted elsewhere, the US was especially vulnerable, because it was utterly unprepared to meet any public health emergency.
How covid will affect international relations
May 01, 2020. Issue Brief by Michael Binyon. Is traditional foreign policy still possible during a global pandemic? Are nations able to focus on security, trade, alliances and influence when their governments are preoccupied with death, disease and the collapse of their economies? Britain has just appointed four new roving ambassadors, with a mandate to coordinate the effort to deal with the consequences of Corvid-19. It looks like a vigorous assertion that the Foreign Office is still central to Britain’s global role and that diplomacy remains the means to strengthen ties with allies, end conflicts and promote national interests. In fact, little attention can now be paid to these goals. Instead, nations are turning inwards, closing their borders, halting foreign travel, going ahead with their own strategies for tackling the Covid-19 virus and paying little attention to what their neighbours are doing.
US Must Have a Plan To Face Future Health Crises
April 23, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach. WASHINGTON – Here is the hard truth. America had no plan designed for national health emergencies that could be activated as soon as policy-makers realized the threat of coronavirus. There was almost nothing in place. There was no “early warning system” that would sound the alarm. There was no structure, no prepositioned equipment that could be deployed to crisis points. No well oiled chain of command.
April 24, 2020
How Coronavirus Could Permanently Transform The U.S. Military
April 20, 2020. Issue Brief by Loren B. Thompson. Much of official Washington seems to believe that once the coronavirus crisis passes, the nation can get back to normal. That might turn out to not be the case. There may never be a reliable vaccine to ward off COVID-19, just as there has never been a vaccine for the common cold. Even if there is, it will take a long time arriving–maybe years. In the meantime, the military will have to adjust its training and operations to minimize the danger of spreading infection. That is no small thing. Beyond that, every bad actor in the world now realizes that the world’s sole remaining superpower can be crippled by mere microbes, at a time when thousands of scientists around the globe have the skills to fashion novel pathogens.
An Already Sick Nation Crushed By Coronavirus
April 11, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. We now know that most of the Americans who need to be hospitalized and eventually die on account of coronavirus are elderly (and sometimes middle-aged) people already in poor health who often must take medications that have the negative side effect of weakening their immune system. In other words, those who are already sick or in poor health–and there are millions in America– are the primary coronavirus targets and, sadly, often the victims.
April 12, 2020
Why The Air Force’s Latest Flight Plan For Its KC-46 Tanker Looks Likely To Finally Deliver Success
April 9, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Advisor Loren B. Thompson. Earlier this month, the Air Force disclosed amendments to the contract it has with Boeing for developing its next-generation aerial refueler. The planes are badly needed to replace aged Cold War tankers, without which many combat aircraft in the joint fleet could not operate effectively in foreign wars. The KC-46 Pegasus, as the new tanker is called, is the most capable aerial refueler ever built. But the Air Force has been unhappy with the plane’s remote vision system that operators use to fit the fuel line into receiving planes during flight. Under the contract amendments, Boeing will implement major enhancements to the vision system, and the Air Force will release $880 million to the company that had been withheld on the 33 tankers already delivered. I have written a commentary for Forbes
How Can We Prepare For The Next Pandemic?
April 10, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. Belatedly, all countries, including the most advanced, decided to adopt quarantines and “social distancing” as the only effective methods to slow down and hopefully stop the coronavirus contagion.
More Heroes In The COVID-19 War
April 3, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Fellow Paul Steidler. Far from the public view is an important part of the COVID-19 fight: electricity-sector professionals have sequestered themselves at grid facilities for weeks at a time to keep the power on. Hospitals and homes depend on the constant energy supply these workers provide. New York, Italy, and Austria have already isolated key electricity employees from the coronavirus-infected world. These public servants deserve our thanks and recognition.
April 4, 2020
Coronavirus Highlights U.S. Strategic Vulnerabilities Spawned By Over-Reliance On China
March 30, 2020. Issue Brief by Loren Thompson. The coronavirus crisis has renewed concern about whether the U.S. has become too dependent on China for manufactured goods, particularly goods with potential defense applications. The most immediate concern is drugs such as antibiotics; even when they are not made in China, the drugs may require active ingredients from China.
US Oil and Gas Sector Hit Hard By Virus, Price War
March 18th, 2020-Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. Sadly, coronavirus is here in America. All the restrictions announced and feared on most economic activities have created huge disruptions and panic. The entire travel, entertainment and restaurant industries are comatose. Airlines bookings literally collapsed. And now, with most economic activities frozen, there is widespread fear that this may be just the beginning of a massive health and economic crisis –with no timeline.
March 27, 2020
SOCOM Has Solved The Military’s ‘Tower Of Babel’ Problem
March 20th, 2020-Issue Brief by Daniel Goure. According to the Bible, all humanity once spoke the same language. But when the people sought to build a tower that would reach to the Heavens, God responded by causing them to suddenly speak different languages so they could not communicate and work together to complete the Tower of Babel. The word derived from this story, babble, means a confusion of sounds. Over the decades, the U.S. military has created a “Tower of Babel” problem in the form of incompatible communications devices, waveforms, data protocols and encryption schemes.
Coronavirus Threatens To End America’s Long Run As A Leader In Commercial Aviation
March 19th, 2020. Issue Brief by Loren B. Thompson. U.S. companies participating in the production of jetliners are facing a liquidity crisis due to the coronavirus pandemic. Aircraft deliveries have ceased, the supply chain is breaking down, and many companies face the near-term prospect of bankruptcy. Without federal assistance, they will need to lay off many thousands of employees. This is not just about Boeing and its 10,000+ domestic suppliers
March 26, 2020
Wanted: A Coronavirus Manhattan Project
March 22nd, 2020-Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. Regarding coronavirus, so far public policy in most Western countries focused on monetary and fiscal interventions. They are aimed at mitigating the disastrous economic impact of the government-mandated freezing of most activities and people to people interactions in order to stop contagion. But it should be clear to all that even vast amounts of money thrown at the US and other major economies will not be enough to stabilize a catastrophic situation caused by the “closing down”, for an indefinite period, of most advanced countries.
The EU Will Not Create Its Own Armed Forces
February 17th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. French president Emmanuel Macron said it right. In his speech at the Munich Security Conference he argued that “We need a European strategy that renews us and turn us into a strategic political power.” Indeed, there is no reason why Europe should not be a world power.
March 13, 2020
Five Reasons The U.S. Army Deserves To Be First In Line For More Modernization Funding
February 25th, 2020. Issue Brief by Loren B. Thompson. The Trump defense increases are over, and competition for scarce budget dollars among the military services therefore is likely to grow more intense. They all are facing a shortfall in modernization funding, but the Army arguably has the most compelling case for getting a boost.
How Jack Welch destroyed Sloan’s Century
March 9th, 2020. Issue Brief by GPI Senior Fellow Martin Hutchinson. Jack Welch, former GE Chairman (1981-2000) who died last week, was named “Manager of the Century” by Fortune magazine in 1999. Twenty years later, we can see clearly that the Manager of the 20th century was not Welch but Alfred P. Sloan, CEO and then Chairman of General Motors (1920-1963). Welch’s main achievement was destroying the management model that Sloan had built, causing GE’s subsequent near-collapse.
March 12, 2020
Mucking Up America’s Competitive Electricity Markets
March 5th, 2020. Issue Brief by Lexington Institute Senior Fellow Paul Steidler. America’s competitive electricity markets, coupled with sensible regulation, have helped ensure that the United States has abundant, reliable and affordable electricity. That system is today threatened by the Green New Deal and, more immediately, by actions that numerous states have taken.
March 9, 2020
Can Tesla Make It?
March 1st, 2020- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. Tesla’s recent massive stock price rise has no rational explanation. Believe it or not, electric vehicles (EVs) manufacturer Tesla now is worth more than the combined value of General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler. It is worth almost the same as Volkswagen and BMW combined. And yet the company produced only 500,000 cars last year, and has yet to be consistently profitable for at least a year.
Nuclear Threats Are Growing. How Should U.S. Missile Defenses Be Upgraded?
March 5th, 2020. Issue Brief by Loren B. Thompson. The U.S. has a grand total of one program in its entire military arsenal capable of intercepting long-range nuclear warheads aimed at America. It is called the Ground-based Midcourse Defense, and within ten years it is likely to lose its effectiveness against an evolving North Korean threat. The Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency has responded by proposing a “next-generation interceptor” capable of defeating pretty much anything that Pyongyang can come up with.
March 7, 2020
The Economic Damage Of Coronavirus
March 1st, 2020- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach. The spreading coronavirus epidemic has already created an enormous challenge for the global economy. This epidemic is caused by an unknown new virus for which human beings have no immunity. For this reason, while this illness is very similar to a seasonal flu, its mortality rate is significantly higher. Hence the global scare.
Poland is becoming America’s key NATO ally
February 27th, 2020- Issue Brief by Daniel Goure, Following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine, the U.S. began a process of returning military forces to Europe and pressing its NATO allies to increase their defense expenditures and armed forces. More than 20 years after the end of the Cold War, many issues that were assumed to be settled needed to be readdressed
February 27, 2020
The U.S. Air Force’s Latest Budget Is Shrouded In Secrecy
February 13th, 2020- Issue Brief by GPI Senior adviser Loren B. Thompson, When the U.S. armed forces revealed their proposed fiscal 2021 budgets on Monday at the Pentagon, it became clear that the Department of the Air Force has a problem the other military departments do not. Much of what it wants to do with $63 billion sought for new weapons and warfighting technology is secret.
February 13, 2020
How UK Prisons Breed Terrorists 
February 13th, 2020- Issue brief by GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon, Coming out of prison in south London after serving only half his three-year sentence for terrorism, Sudesh Amman, a 20-year-old British Muslim, knew what he wanted to do. He was going to kill “unbelievers” – white non-Muslims – and die a “martyr” so that he could go to paradise. He outlined his intentions in a crude note to himself, and had already boasted to his fellow prisoners about the need to kill. He had even staged mock executions with his cell mate.
The Dead Hand of Jacques Delors
February 11th, 2020- Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, On July 6, 1988 European Commission President Jacques Delors propounded the hope that “Ten years hence, 80% of our economic legislation, and perhaps even our fiscal and social legislation as well, will be of Community origin.” The EU has not lost this ambition; this week Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, attempted to prevent Britain from signing a trade deal with the EU unless it conformed to EU regulations. It is therefore worth looking at the damage those regulations have done to what was once an economically thriving collection of countries.
February 11, 2020
How can we explain irrational economic decisions?
February 7th, 2020- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, Classical economics holds that economic decisions are made by rational decision makers, using solid information and reason. Behavioral economics holds that many economic decisions are based on “cognitive biases” such as an aversion to losses that is stronger than the desire for profits. Richard Robb’s new book “Willful” holds that many decisions are made without rational justification or behavioral motivation, but simply “for-themselves” based on whims or deep-seated irrational beliefs. It’s an interesting, plausible thesis that has implications well beyond investing.
February 7, 2020
To Defeat Hypersonic Weapons, Pentagon Aims To Build Vast Space Sensor Layer
February 6th, 2020- Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren Thompson, The Trump Administration is pursuing a series of secret military space projects that collectively will cost tens of billions of dollars. At least one of those projects is too big to hide: a Space Sensor Layer that would place hundreds of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO) to track hostile hypersonic missiles, and many ballistic threats too.
February 6, 2020
Three Huge Defense Threats For Which Washington Is Woefully Under-Prepared
February 3rd, 2020- The United States outspends every other nation on defense, and as a result has the best trained, best equipped military in the world. The joint force regularly undertakes missions that no other country’s military would be capable of executing.

However, there are existential defense threats for which the nation is not prepared—existential in the sense that they could make the continued functioning of democratic government within U.S. borders nearly impossible.

These threats get short shrift in national strategy, either because they have never occurred before or because there are no easy remedies. Unfortunately, the vulnerability of the U.S. to the threats could make them attractive options for America’s enemies in the future.

February 3, 2020
Trivializing Impeachment
January 22, 2020- Issue brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, The Democrats who hold the majority in the US House of Representatives did their best to present their vote leading to the start of an impeachment process, potentially leading to the removal of President Donald Trump from office, as a solemn and sad moment dictated by the gravity of the charges and the urgency of the constitutional crisis created by a criminal president.
January 22, 2020
Cyber War Happening Now – We Are Not Ready
January 16th, 2020- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, We are at war. Aggression which one day can take devastating dimensions is targeting America on a daily basis. I am talking about cyber warfare. Unfortunately, it is very hard to label cyber war as “war”, simply because it is vastly different from the “conventional war” we are used to study, discuss and prepare for.
January 16, 2020
Back to the economics of 1792
January 16th, 2020- Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, When William Pitt the younger made his great and optimistic Budget speech of 1792, he attributed Britain’s increased prosperity not to technological improvement but to the wealth-enhancing effect of the compounding increase in the country’s capital stock. 

Only a generation later, in the administration of Robert, Earl of Liverpool, was technological change given credit for the country’s growth and prosperity. Today, as productivity growth slows or even halts, we may be returning to the economics of 1792, in which only capital increase brings greater wealth. This has uncomfortable implications.

Trump’s iconoclasm is a feature, not a bug
January 13th, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, Three years into his administration, President Donald Trump is subject to a surprising level of obloquy, given the U.S. economy’s benign performance. Not only his political opponents, but even some nominal “conservatives” want to impeach him. The reason is clear: rigid thinkers committed to the “icons” of past consensus policy loathe President Trump with unparalleled venom for breaking those icons.
January 13, 2020
Europe’s Dreams
January 13th, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, We heard from Ursula von der Leyen, the new President of the European Commission, that she will lead a “geopolitical” Commission. So, we are led to believe that, under her leadership, there will be deep thinking and strategizing about how to effectively combine the significant European economic, business, investments and military assets so that the EU will play a leading role on the world stage.
War With Iran?
January 10th 2020- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, The killing of General Qassem Soleimani, the legendary head of the Iranian al Quds force, is a game changer in America’s creeping hostilities with Iran. I wrote recently that unless the US wants to engage in a conflict over Iraq, this poor, war-torn country is lost to us, on account of the solid Iranian grip on it.
January 10, 2020
Brexit 2020
January 8th 2020- Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon, at the end of this month, Britain is to leave the European Union, 47 years after it joined what was then the Common Market. It will be a shock – although long anticipated – for the other 27 members. No country has ever left the EU, and this spectacular no-confidence vote will test the hopes of the remaining members to stay committed and united.
January 8, 2020
Raising The Temperature In The Middle East
January 6th 2020- Issue brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, After the unexpected airstrike that killed IRGC General Qassem Soleimani, right outside the Baghdad airport, analysts began speculating what Trump’s end game may be. In other words, is this just an ill-conceived, spur of the moment decision? Or is this targeted assassination of the master mind of all the Iran-led irregular forces operating with impunity in the Middle East part of a carefully orchestrated US “plan”?
January 6, 2020
Towards a Working-class Tory Britain
January 6th, 2020- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, By definition, all substantial election victories involve winning seats that had not previously been held. However, in this case, because of the interaction of the election with the Brexit decision, many industrial and mining constituencies in the north of England and north Wales, that had been Labour heartlands for generations, were taken by the Conservatives. By and large the big-city constituencies in the region remained Labour; it was the less concentrated urban areas, albeit still mining/industrial, that switched to the Conservatives. As one Labour leader said on the BBC’s Election Night program: “we haven’t lost the big city working classes, but we do seem to have lost the small-town working classes.”
Boris Johnson’s Gamble Will Fail
December 23rd, 2019- Issue brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, Boris Johnson won the UK political elections –in a most spectacular way. Indeed, it seems that his new version of British Conservatism cum Populism upended British politics. Old Labour Party bastions, located primarily in the North of England fell, this way transforming the British political map. Congratulations on this splendid and unanticipated performance. This is the good news.
December 23, 2019
Good Values at the Root of Utah’s Success
December 12th, 2019- Issue brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, A recent article pointed out how, year after year, Utah is on top of the national list of the best states to do business in America, not to mention that the state gets very high marks on good governance, while in Utah there is very low unemployment. And in Utah kids attending public schools on average do rather well compared to the rest of the U.S., notwithstanding the fact that in Utah spending per pupil is quite below the national average. Well, what is the secret of this success?
December 20, 2019
The Fake Aramco IPO
December 18th 2019- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, There were great expectations about the Aramco IPO. It was announced long ago by Saudi authorities, and then postponed several times. Well, now we know why it took so long, and why in the end the IPO did not take place in New York or London. Indeed, the Saudi government, the sole owner of this energy giant, could not be sure about the response of savvy international investors. Would they really buy shares at a price that implies an overall $ 2 trillion valuation for Aramco? May be not. And so the Saudis, decided to play it safe. They would do this at home, in an environment and with investors they could control. And so they used the Riyadh Tadawul stock exchange (where less than 200 stocks are traded) as the venue for this “historic” IPO.
December 19, 2019
Yale Model Goes Whiffen-Poof
December 12th, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, All 60 of the United States’ leading university endowments underperformed a cheap “tracker fund” over the past decade, according to a study reported in the Financial Times. The culprit is the “Yale Model” of university endowment investment, whereby they focus on private equity, hedge funds and unquoted investments rather than on ordinary stock markets. From this data, the Yale Model clearly has not worked, at least in the last decade. It is worth examining what went wrong.
December 16, 2019
Stunning Victory for Boris Johnson, Yet Major Challenges Ahead
December 12th, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon, To the astonishment of pollsters and voters, Boris Johnson, Britain’s embattled prime minister, has won a resounding election victory, giving the ruling Conservative party their biggest majority for more than 35 years and ending three years of argument over Brexit. He now has a clear mandate for Britain to leave the European Union within the next six weeks.
How A Dangerous Court Ruling Could Give China The Lead In 5G Technology
December 12, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Senior Advisor Loren Thompson, Despite a chronic trade deficit in advanced technology products, the United States remains a global trendsetter for networking and telecommunications. U.S. companies are currently in a battle with Chinese state-influenced enterprises like Huawei that will determine whether American dominance continues into the era of 5G communications.
December 12, 2019
The Case for Gold Grows Ever Stronger
December 11th, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, In 1982-2000, I avoided large losses by completely ignoring gold as an investment vehicle — I started thinking about it again when in July 2000 I noticed that Vanguard’s precious metals fund was its only loser over the preceding 5 years. Since 2008, I have invested consistently in gold mining stocks, and enjoyed good years (2009-10, 2016-19) and bad years (2011-15). Yet the intellectual case for gold, as a store of reality in an increasingly unreal world, grows stronger by the day. Let me explain
December 11, 2019
$22B Navy Contract Highlights Why GD’s Electric Boat Is One Of The Most Valuable Franchises In U.S. Defense
December 10, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Senior Advisor Loren Thompson, This week’s announcement that the Electric Boat unit of General Dynamics will receive the biggest shipbuilding contract in Navy history underscores the unique role that “EB” (as it is often called) plays in U.S. defense. The contract provides $22 billion for construction of nine Virginia-class attack submarines, an amount that could increase to $24 billion if the Navy exercises the option for a tenth sub.

This isn’t the first time Electric Boat has received the biggest naval shipbuilding contract ever. The $17 billion contract for the last “block” of Virginias, awarded in 2014, was also described at the time as unprecedented in size.

December 10, 2019
President Trump Should Offer to Sell M-1 Tanks to Poland
December 4th, 2019- Issue brief by Daniel Gouré, When Poland joined the NATO alliance in 1999, its military was saddled with rapidly obsolescing platforms and equipment largely of Soviet design. In response to the Russian seizure of Crimea and its massive military buildup, Warsaw initiated a major modernization program intended to provide its military with advanced capabilities. One key element of that effort is to upgrade or replace the Polish army’s fleet of old armored fighting vehicles, particularly its battle tanks.
December 5, 2019
Should Washington Sell The B-21 Bomber To Australia?
December 4, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Senior Advisor Loren Thompson, the U.S. Air Force is developing a long-range bomber that will be able to hold any target at risk, anywhere in the world. It is called the B-21 Raider, and will be the most survivable, versatile strike aircraft ever built. It is likely to eventually replace all the heavy bombers in the current U.S. fleet. On November 6, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute published an article in its journal The Strategist arguing that Australia should buy 12-20 B-21s from the United States. The article was written by senior analyst Marcus Hellyer, who convincingly laid out the geopolitical, operational and budgetary logic of such a move.
December 4, 2019
How Poor Countries can Beat De-Globalization
December 2nd, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, The outstanding winners from the 1991-2016 policies of globalization were dwellers in poor countries. With international sourcing much cheaper and easier and foreign investment flows soaring, well-run poor countries could attract capital, jobs and export-producing industries in profusion, producing revenues that could educate their workforce and hugely raise their living standards. Overall, for poor countries, the world has now become harder. Yet even without globalization, well-run poor countries can still become middle-income and then rich.
December 2, 2019
After Decades Of Warnings, U.S. Gets Serious About EMP Dangers
November 21, 2019- Issue brief by Paul Steidler, For decades government policy experts and scientists have known about the dangers of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) events which could cripple large sections of the power grid for long periods of time. EMP disturbances occur naturally, through solar storms. They could also happen due to high-altitude nuclear bomb detonations or through on-the-ground attacks by terrorists or saboteurs.
November 21, 2019
Can Boris Johnson win the UK elections?
November 15, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon, Not since 1923 has Britain held a general election in December – a month most politicians want to avoid as voters are more preoccupied with Christmas shopping than politics. But this time there was little choice: Boris Johnson’s government had lost its majority, Parliament was deadlocked over Brexit, splits and tensions were destroying both main parties, and voters had lost patience with the political wrangling and with all politicians. They will now have a chance to sweep out hundreds of MPs and vote for a whole range of different faces on December 12th.
November 15, 2019
Once It Gets Green Light From FAA, Boeing Still Faces Complicated Task To Get 737 MAXs Off The Ground
November 13, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson, "Consider, for instance, the basic steps involved in returning the plane to service. First the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) needs to approve a software update to the MCAS flight control system and a redesign of the plane’s twin flight control computers so that the MAX can be recertified as airworthy. Then the FAA needs to approve revised training requirements and supporting documents for crews who will be flying the plane. Then the grounding order is lifted, after which each carrier must submit proposed training programs to regulators for approval, training is conducted, and the MAX can finally begin carrying passengers again".
November 13, 2019
Congressional Dysfunction Threatens To Halt Trump Defense Buildup
November 11, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson, Over the last several weeks, there has been growing concern on Capitol Hill that Congress might not pass a budget for the 2020 fiscal year that began October 1. When these situations arise, as they almost always do at the beginning of a fiscal year, government shutdown is averted by passing a Continuing Resolution (CR) that maintains prior-year spending levels into the new year.
November 11, 2019
The Anglosphere governance model is the Gold Standard
November 5, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, Assuming Britain finally manages to edge its way out of the EU, it will look for other affiliations. The obvious choice is joining the core Anglosphere of the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. At first sight, this may look like a model driven by mere nostalgia. Not so: the governance model of the Anglosphere is the best in the world, in terms of assuring the happiness and prosperity of its citizens. Thus, a loosely associated Anglosphere can serve as a global model.
November 5, 2019
If President Trump Isn’t Reelected, What Will That Mean For The Military?
November 4, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson, President Trump isn’t likely to be removed from office through the impeachment process. Even if every Democratic member of the chamber voted for removal in a Senate trial, 20 Republican senators would have to turn on Trump to expel him from office. That outcome looks exceedingly improbable today.

The more plausible scenarios for Trump’s departure would be either resignation or failure to win reelection. The president shows no sign of resigning, so next year’s election looms as the biggest opportunity for those who say the nation can’t stand another four years of Trump to seat a more congenial chief executive in the White House.

November 4, 2019
Towards a Low-Overhead 2020s
October 30, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, The Western world approaches the 2020s at the top of a boom, with asset prices and leverage at all-time highs and interest rates at all-time lows, yet with disappointing expectations when it comes to a higher standard of living. The extreme policies that have produced this state of affairs are unsustainable over another decade, even if we were mad enough to try. The solution will be unpleasant but inevitable: the overhead “fat” that has accumulated throughout the world economy must be eliminated — a process that will inevitably be painful.
October 30, 2019
Why Sell Weapons To Taiwan? Because Washington’s China Strategy Won’t Work Without It.
October 28, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Senior Advisor Loren Thompson, Someday very soon the Republic of China, also known as Taiwan, will receive formal approval from Washington to move ahead with its biggest purchase of U.S. arms in many years. The package includes over a hundred M1A2 tanks, hundreds of surface-to-air and anti-tank weapons, and the first U.S. fighters Taipei has bought from America since 1992.
October 28, 2019
DoD Leaders’ Modernization Plans Will Require Rethinking How It Partners With Industry
October 21, 2019- Issue brief by Daniel Gouré, The Department of Defense (DoD) is on a mission to transform the way it acquires advanced military capabilities. Each of the Military Services has stood up a special organization expressly for the purpose of shortening the cycle time associated with developing and procuring new weapons systems and promoting innovation.

The U.S. Army has been boldest, creating a new four-star command, Army Futures Command (AFC), for the express purpose of speeding up all aspects of modernization. The aerospace and defense industry has a long history of operating special organizations devoted to pursuing innovative solutions to challenging technical and operational problems. Pratt & Whitney, one of the Nation’s premier developers of commercial and military aircraft engines, has responded to DoD’s imperative for rapid modernization by standing up its own innovation cell in Florida called GatorWorks. This new organization is already demonstrating the innovative thinking for which its military customers, particularly the Army and Air Force, are looking.

October 21, 2019
Turkey and the US: A Failed Alliance?
October 16, 2019 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Cenk Karatas: "In Syria, Turkey and the US may be paying the price of a failed alliance. Here is a fact: PYD is the Syrian wing of PKK, an internationally recognized terrorist organization, while YPG is the military branch of PYD. This is by no means a secret; and all US officials were obviously aware of it. Nonetheless, they cooperated with them for the sake of defeating ISIS in Syria."
October 16, 2019
What USTR And Boeing Want From Europe To End The Tariffs
October 14, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson, This week’s media coverage of the World Trade Organization’s decision to approve U.S. tariffs on European products in response to illegal subsidies of jetliners has followed a familiar pattern.

The dominant themes are that there are no winners in trade wars; that America and Europe both have legitimate complaints against how the other side’s aerospace sector has operated; and that the tariffs the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) plans to impose later this month are part of a broader Trump Administration strategy to help American companies at the expense of foreign competitors.

October 14, 2019
Turkey’s Operation into Northeast Syria: Anything But Unexpected
October 9, 2019 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Cenk Karatas: During the war of Manbij against ISIS a few years ago, I remember asking a high level US security official about American engagement with the YPG (Syrian Kurdish forces) and whether they had made any promises to the Syrian Kurds in exchange for their participation in the fight against ISIS. The official’s response had a twist:  "Superpowers don’t make promises, they just give hope."
October 9, 2019
The Blessed World of Low Asset Prices
October 2, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, After a decade of ultra-low interest rates, we have become used to ultra-high asset prices – in big city real estate, stocks, bonds, tech start-ups, art and collectibles, and pretty well everything else you can think of. It is too depressing to think of the damage that will be done by the inevitable bursting of this universal bubble. Let us rather look forward to say 2030, to a world of low asset prices and historically average interest rates, and remind ourselves of that world’s advantages.
October 2, 2019
Five Reasons The Air Force’s Digital Century Series Is Doomed To Failure
October 1, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson, The Air Force has embarked on a revolutionary approach to aircraft, satellite and software development that it hopes will greatly compress the time required to bring major advances into the active force. Dubbed the “Digital Century Series” after a burst of early Cold War innovation, the new approach could reduce the time required to develop new combat aircraft to five years, with additional years of time saved in developing military spacecraft and major software advances.
October 1, 2019
Brexit Woes Continue in The UK
October 1, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Graham Bardgett, Will U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson pull a rabbit out of his Magician’s hat and get a new deal from the EU? Or is he determined to drive on over the cliff edge using Emergency Powers to thwart the law?

A vote of no confidence in the UK Government aimed at replacing Boris Johnson as Prime Minister is imminent, the Westminster leader of the Scottish Nationalist Party Ian Blackford said Sunday 29 September. But its success relies, he said, on all opposition parties in the UK Parliament joining forces to prevent the Prime Minister allowing the country to crash out of the EU without a deal amid warnings of catastrophic economic consequences.

On October 15, Britain stops being a democracy
September 30, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, By a vote of 298 to 56 on September 4 and a second similar vote on September 9, the House of Commons voted to approve an election on October 15, yet because of a supermajority provision unknown to the British constitution, Parliament was not dissolved. A Parliament you cannot dissolve is no longer a democratic institution, any more than was the Rump Parliament after Pride’s Purge. On October 15, therefore, Britain will turn the clock back 370 years, into the world of Praise-God Barebone. It will then need a Cromwell, or better still a Restoration to return it to democracy and legitimate rule.
September 30, 2019
The Universal Postal Union: Why Its Upcoming Extraordinary Congress Is A Big Deal
September 25, 2019- Issue Brief by Paul Steidler, The Universal Postal Union sets the rates and regulatory requirements governing the shipment of packages internationally. The Lexington Institute’s Paul Steidler spoke with postal expert Jim Campbell about the organization’s September 24-26 Extraordinary Congress at which the U.S. is pushing for major reforms and threatening to leave the organization if these reforms are not enacted. Mr. Campbell has been an observer at Universal Postal Union meetings for decades. The U.S. delegation to the upcoming Extraordinary Congress will be led by Peter Navarro, Assistant to the President and Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy.
September 25, 2019
Poland Is Becoming the Keystone of NATO’s Evolving Security Architecture
September 18, 2019- Issue brief by Dan Gouré, The Republic of Poland is rapidly becoming the critical member of the NATO Alliance in its increasing efforts to deter Russian military threats and counter Moscow’s attempts to subvert European democracy. Poland is no free rider when it comes to European security. It is spending more money in terms of a percentage of GDP than other NATO countries. The Polish military has a serious modernization program underway that over time promises to make it a serious counterweight to the Russian Army.
September 18, 2019
Thanks to Fracking, No Panic in the US After The Attacks on Saudi Oil
September 18, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, The most astonishing consequence of the unprecedented, devastating attack on Saudi Arabia which crippled the Kingdom’s oil production and refining facilities is what did not happen, especially in the USA.

There was no panic in the US or worldwide; no skyrocketing, out of control oil prices. Yes, crude prices went up, significantly; but not in a dramatic way, if you consider that the supplies of Saudi Arabia, the leading world exporter, (along with Russia), have just been cut down by 50%! That 50% represents 5% of total world supply. In an environment where strong demand matched tight supply, this sudden shortfall would be a disaster, especially for the US, along with China the leading oil consumer. But right now world oil supplies are not stretched, notwithstanding steady demand, thanks to the US fracking revolution which added millions of barrels of oil a day to global energy markets. More on this in a moment.

The President Is Right — China’s Fentanyl Is Killing Too Many Americans
September 17, 2019- Issue Brief by Paul Steidler, Kudos to President Trump for tweets tearing into China and President Xi Jinping on Friday for not stepping up to stop fentanyl shipments to the United States. With 47,600 opioid deaths in 2017 alone, this crisis must end.

The president should double down while sharpening and refining his messaging. And he should do so regardless of the ups and downs of tariff negotiations.

China has become the worldwide manufacturing hub of opioids, and with that has arisen criminal businesses that export fentanyl and other deadly narcotics to the United States. These businesses are sophisticated and slick: they operate through well-designed websites that include online chats, negotiate for bulk purchases, take bitcoin payments and even specify shipping preferences.

September 17, 2019
A leverage tax will solve funny money problems
September 17, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, We seem doomed to another round of monetary “stimulus” from the Fed and the European Central Bank, at a time when real interest rates are already substantially negative. This has caused crazy leverage all over the global economy, with such madness as Boeing (NYSE:BA) in a highly cyclical business, operating entirely without stockholders’ equity. Very well, if we can’t get the monetary madmen at the world’s central banks to raise interest rates to their proper level, let’s find a fiscal solution to the problem, which will also reduce the world’s yawning budget deficits. I propose a leverage tax.
Why Aircraft Carriers Are The Most Cost-Effective Way Of Containing China’s Military
September 16, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson, Deterring and/or defeating aggression by China’s military has become a top priority of U.S. defense strategy. Due to China’s geographical circumstances, Pentagon planners assume that any outward thrust of the People’s Liberation Army, Navy and Air Force would occur in the east, presumably using maritime routes. So it is there that America and its allies intend to block aggression
September 16, 2019
Brexit Mess turns into Quagmire
September 5, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Graham Bardgett High ranking veteran Conservative MPs, including grandson of Winston Churchill, Sir Nicholas Soames, and Father of the House of Commons Kenneth Clarke, helped stop UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson pushing forward with a disastrous "Do or Die No Deal Brexit” on 31 October.
September 6, 2019
Vigilance Essential for Electric Grid Protection
September 4, 2019- Issue Brief by Paul Steidler, While cyber-attacks that steal credit card information or hacks into celebrities’ computers get far more media attention, electric grid attacks are far more ominous. And, as numerous senior government officials have pointed out, this can be easily done by Russia, China and many others.
September 4, 2019
Could Trump have stopped the Third Reich?
September 4, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, President Donald Trump has instituted an entirely new type of diplomacy with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, and it seems to have worked, at least in the short-term. By building a personal relationship with “bad guys” Trump has avoided the poisonous Bush-era chemistry whereby Western “Axis of Evil” insults drove them ever further into destructive behavior. One is forced to ask: would Trump’s methods have worked against other adversaries, in particular against the ultimate “bad guy” regime, the Third Reich?
America Lost Its Ill-Conceived War in Afghanistan
September 4, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, The longest American war is finally coming to an (unhappy) end. America is negotiating its departure from Afghanistan. A draft deal sketching a time line for US troops withdrawal has been hammered by US Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and the Taliban. Good news? Not really. Let’s be clear. America is not negotiating from a position of strength, after having inflicted painful losses on the Taliban, our enemy. This is not a carefully crafted peace treaty, with credible built-in conditionalities and safeguards.
Business Roundtable amputates Capitalism’s Invisible Hand
August 26, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, The Business Roundtable last week produced a 400-page publication claiming that its members should no longer look first to profitability but should follow the interests of stakeholders, including employees and the environment. This is pabulum we are used to from the titans of Big Business, who are no longer truly capitalist in our distorted low-interest-rate economy. The problem is, that by downplaying the central tenet of capitalism, they may, like the acolytes of central planning, produce hugely sub-optimal economic results.
August 26, 2019
No Brexit without a deal on the Irish Border
August 22, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Fellow Graham Bardgett, Diplomatic relations between the Republic of Ireland and the UK Government appear to have hardened in relation to the increasing prospect of a “No Deal on Brexit”. In Dublin, the Deputy Prime Minister Simon Coveney, who is also the Republic’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, has said that Ireland would not be carrying out bilateral negotiations with the UK in relation to no-deal Brexit planning.
August 22, 2019
Type Two Diabetes Is Preventable, But Nobody Says It
August 22, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, I recently read a very well researched article on the growing cost of treating millions of diabetics in the United States. It appeared in a major national newspaper and it was written by a well-known public policy scholar. The writer  provided up to date data on the alarmingly large dimension of this disease and how much it costs to the affected individuals, insures and the US Government. The scholar in the end provided his thoughtful policy recommendations.
Is Britain getting ready for Brexit?
August 19, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Graham Bardgett, Battle lines have been drawn at Westminster as the UK rapidly nears the 31 October exit from the EU after three years of national crisis that threatens the political union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. With Scotland pledged to go it alone to remain in the EU while Northern Ireland, part of the UK, looks set to have a hard border again 20 years on from the Good Friday Peace Agreement – in this the 50th anniversary of the start of the Troubles.
August 20, 2019
Argentina: From Bad to Worse
August 19, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, Once a prosperous nation, for decades Argentina has been a country in semi-perpetual economic crisis. In 2015 it seemed that the voters had gained some common sense. After years of catastrophic mismanagement by the populist Peronist President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, (preceded by her husband who died in office), characterized by a mix of subsidies, protectionism and massive state interventions, plus a bankruptcy, the voters turned to Mauricio Macri, a pro-business moderate conservative, as the right person to turn things around, restore business confidence, and convince foreign investors to come back to Argentina.
August 19, 2019
Use Small Ball to Help End Washington’s Gridlock
August 15, 2019- Issue Brief by Paul Steidler, Small ball is when a baseball team employs a strategy to grind out a run or two, through sacrifice bunts and other measures. It typically means low-scoring games as teams give up outs for a higher chance of getting a run or two. But low-scoring innings can win games and break teams out of slumps. The 2015 Kansas City Royals won the World Series because they mastered small ball. Exhibit A for a public policy slump in Washington is the current gridlock surrounding the U.S. Postal Service. Since 2009 the Postal Service has been on the Government Accountability Office’s High Risk List of organizations needing major reform. Despite this, a December 4, 2018, Presidential Task Force report, and strong concerns from elected officials on both sides of the aisle, reform measures have been dead in the water, including the defeat of nine reform bills since 2011.
August 15, 2019
Global Gosplans Should be Shut Down
August 14, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, Kristalina Georgieva’s nomination as Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, IMF, is entirely appropriate. She is a Bulgarian communist by background, for 14 years until 1993 she was a Professor at the Karl Marx Higher Institute of Economics, under that country’s communist government. The IMF itself and its sister institution, the World Bank, have since their foundation been anti-market forces of central planning. It is high time the Trump Administration and other believers in the free market acted to close down these clogs to the global economy.
August 14, 2019
A Boeing-Northrop Team May Be The Only Way To Fix The Air Force’s Flawed ICBM Competition
August 13, 2019- Issue Brief by Senior Adviser at GPI Loren B. Thompson, Intercontinental ballistic missiles housed in hardened underground silos are a vital part of the nation’s nuclear deterrent. They are cheaper to maintain and more responsive in a crisis than the submarine-launched missiles and bombers that comprise the rest of the strategic force. At least, that’s what the Pentagon’s most recent nuclear posture review found. However, the 400 Minuteman III ICBMs in the current force are 50 years old, and not expected to be reliable beyond 2030. The Air Force has done an admirable job of keeping the missiles in a high state of readiness, but they need to be replaced. With that goal in mind, the service launched a program called the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD) to develop a successor.
August 13, 2019
US Fiscal Irresponsibility Will Lead to Bankruptcy
August 12, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, The Democrats in Congress and Republican President Donald Trump agree practically on nothing. Therefore, it is impossible to think of any major piece of legislation that can be passed between now and November 2020, when Americans will go the polls to pick a new President and a new Congress, and new political majorities may be formed. Since the Democratic control the House of Representatives, while the Republicans control the Senate and the White House, and considering the increasingly toxic political climate that makes compromise impossible, we have not just a divided government. We have a sharply divided government. So, do not hold your breath. No significant legislative changes between now and the next presidential and congressional elections in November 2020.
August 12, 2019
Army Futures Command’s Report Card After Its First Year
August 12, 2019- Issue Brief by Dan Gouré, Army Futures Command (AFC) was stood up on July 1, 2018. It achieved full operational capability on July 31, 2019. In that time, AFC has made some remarkable strides, particularly considering the U.S. Army’s inherent conservatism. Even before the location of the new command’s headquarters was established or a commanding officer selected, the Army organized eight Cross-Functional Teams (CFTs) to advance the Service’s critical modernization priorities. The CFTs are beginning to produce results.
Defense Against Hypersonic Attack Is Becoming The Biggest Military Challenge Of The Trump Era (From Forbes)
August 9, 2019- Issue Brief By GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson, Russia and China are testing weapons that can fly several times faster than the speed of sound — in other words, over a mile per second.  In addition to their extreme velocity, these “hypersonic” weapons fly below sensor horizons, are maneuverable, and may even be invisible to radar.  All of which makes them devilishly difficult to track and intercept.  But if effective defensive measures can’t be devised, America’s vast investment in current strategic systems will be largely negated, and the survivability of forward-deployed forces will be doubtful. 
August 9, 2019
The global tax system begins to resemble the French ancien regime 
August 9, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, Modern “big data” systems are allowing tax authorities to gain full knowledge of sales transactions in their jurisdiction, thus pushing VAT tax collection rates close to 100% on small businessmen and the middle class in general. Meanwhile, Western income tax systems collect steadily less tax from large corporations and the very rich. They use loopholes and tax havens to minimize their tax liability. We have seen this type of tax system before: namely in the pre-revolutionary French ancien regime, where the nobility benefited from tax exemptions and the poor paid through the nose. That didn’t end well, and nor will this.
Aerojet Rocketdyne Cuts Costs, Builds Infrastructure To Compete For Engines On Future ICBM
August 8, 2019- Issue brief by GPI senior adviser Loren B. Thompson, Last month’s revelation that Boeing may not bid to develop the Air Force’s next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile surprised many. If the company’s concerns about how the program is being competed are not resolved, rival Northrop Grumman may be headed for lucrative monopolies on all three legs of the nation’s nuclear “triad.” The unsettled state of the program, known as the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD), doesn’t just impact the big aerospace integrators who want to be prime contractor. It also affects a highly specialized supply chain of domestic contractors whose ranks have thinned dramatically since the end of the Cold War.
August 8, 2019
Why mass shootings? Heavy political rhetoric, psychopaths, and too many weapons
August 6, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach, The El Paso slaughter stunned America. It is human nature that when something completely out of the ordinary happens –an immense tragedy in this case—everybody wants to know “why”. And this case the simple “why” seems to be that the young man who went to the Walmart to kill as many Hispanics as he could did so because of his White Supremacist convictions. Apparently, he strongly believes that Latinos and Hispanics are alien enemies, and therefore they must be eliminated.
August 6, 2019
Overcoming Racial Prejudice in America
August 5, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo Von Schirach,  “I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.” This sentence spoken by the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. on August 28, 1963, during the much celebrated March on Washington, was and to this day remains the best guiding principle that should help the American society deal with and finally go beyond its legacy of racism.
August 5, 2019
Using Commercial Satellites To Control Nuclear Weapons Is A Bad Idea — But It’s Being Discussed (From Forbes)
August 5, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson, Next month marks the 70th anniversary of the day in 1949 when U.S. intelligence discovered the Soviet Union had conducted its first successful test of a nuclear weapon. From that day forward, most Americans have understood that nuclear war would likely be the worst fate that could ever befall our republic. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the appearance of new threats, though, the sense of urgency about nuclear security has waned. The infrastructure supporting nuclear deterrence has decayed to a point where all three legs of the strategic “triad”—land-based missiles, sea-based missiles and long-range bombers—need to be replaced. Meanwhile, the architecture used to command and control nuclear forces has changed little since the Reagan era.
Why America is a Unique Country – Part 2
August 2, 2019 Issue Brief By the President of the Global Policy Institute, Paolo von Schirach. Thomas Jefferson and the other Founding Fathers of America sincerely believed that “Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness” were and are indeed self-evident and unalienable rights, given to each human being by a Supreme Being. These attributes, “attached” to each person from birth, were described as Natural Rights, and therefore something that no government could legitimately take away from any and all the individuals who collectively constitute The People.
August 2, 2019
Why America is a unique country – Part 1
August 1, 2019 Issue Brief By the President of the Global Policy Institute, Paolo von Schirach. America is a truly unique country. But not for the most commonly held reasons: “Come to America so that you will have a great chance to make money and be rich”. In truth, throughout the world America is viewed (sometimes with envy) mostly as a country of great economic opportunity for those who are willing to push forward with determination, grit, passion and sometimes heartless aggression. America is the Promised Land where making money, advancing one’s social position, and building a better future for oneself is easier than elsewhere.
Congress Should Fully Fund The Air Force’s Long-Overdue Competition For A Safer Ejection Seat
August 1, 2019 issue Brief by Senior Adviser at GPI Loren B. Thompson, When a fighter pilot’s plane is hit by enemy fire, he or she may have only seconds to escape the doomed craft. Similar situations can arise in peacetime because fighters are designed to operate at extremes of speed and maneuverability, so training accidents are a hazard of the profession.
August 1, 2019
Stinking City On a Garbage Dump
July 31, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, Harvard University last week rescinded its acceptance of Parkland-shooting survivor Kyle Kashuv on the grounds of offensive tweets made when he was 16. This resulted in considerable media criticism that, in imposing political correctness codes and denying free speech, Harvard was betraying its beliefs. But that is nonsense. Harvard was founded in the Massachusetts Bay Colony in 1636. Bigoted small-minded intolerance and persecution of dissidents are central to its founding traditions.
July 31, 2019
Five Basic Facts About Boeing Missing From Coverage Of the 737 MAX Story
July 29, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson The tragic loss of two Boeing 737 MAX airliners has spawned an orgy of negative media coverage, much of it focused on the supposed failings of the world’s biggest aerospace company. What has largely gone missing in all this reporting is an understanding of the role that Boeing plays in the national economy. If the 737 doesn’t safely and expeditiously return to service, there will be big economic consequences for the United States.
July 29, 2019
TRANSCOM’s Plan To Reform The Movement Of Household Goods Will Benefit All Stakeholders
July 26, 2019- Issue Brief by By Daniel Gouré, U.S. Transportation Command (TRANSCOM) is responsible for the global movement of military personnel, equipment and supplies across the United States and around the world. It is also the largest shipper in the world of household goods (HHGs) for military families. Currently, TRANSCOM runs the Defense Personal Property Program (DP3) to manage HHG movements. This program relies on a disaggregated and inefficient system based on dozens of separate offices awarding individual contracts to hundreds of private transportation service providers (TSPs, or movers) for the packing, movement, storage and unpacking of HHGs. 
July 26, 2019
Five Money-Pit Projects The U.S. Air Force Can Do Without
July 25, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson The U.S. Air Force is currently flying the oldest, smallest fleet of combat aircraft in its history. It has fewer than 200 heavy bombers to cover the entire world, and many are not available for flight on a typical day. Most of the aerial refueling tankers that are supposed to support those bombers on long-range missions are over 50 years old. Hundreds of Air Force fighters suffer from age-related maladies such as corrosion, metal fatigue and parts obsolescence.
July 25, 2019
What Lord Liverpool Could Teach Today’s Fed
July 23, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, Robert Banks Jenkinson, Lord Liverpool, said it best, in a House of Lords speech of May 26, 1818: “The tendency of an inconvertible paper money is to create fictitious wealth, bubbles, which by their bursting, produce inconvenience.” His phrase “fictitious wealth”, or better “fictitious capital” has a similar (but not, as I shall explain, identical) meaning to the Austrian economists’ “malinvestment” a century later, yet it is in eloquent English, not the made-up word of droning German-speaking professors. We should recognize Liverpool’s priority, and follow his economic thinking.
July 24, 2019
Can Boris Johnson lead Britain?
July 22, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon Cartoonists love his hair – blond, long, untidy, looking as though it hasn’t been combed for a week. All they need to do is draw his hair and everyone knows it is Boris. It’s just the image he wants – recognizable, amusing, popular, informal, a man who does not take himself too seriously but who is always the centre of attention. And like so much about Britain’s next prime minister, it is deceptive and carefully staged.
July 22, 2019
Corn Laws beat farm subsidies
July 18, 2019 Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, British farmers are concerned about a “no-deal” Brexit, under which they would lose access to bounteous EU farm subsidies. U.S. farmers have had their subsidies increased by President Trump because of the China trade dispute. Agriculture subsidies burden national budgets and almost exclusively benefit large corporations and the very rich. There is a better model for supporting agriculture: the 1815-46 Corn Laws, reviled by Whig historians, but much cheaper and infinitely less corrupt.
July 18, 2019
Behemoths Should Give up Merchant Banking
July 15, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson “The mood’s always depressed in Deutsche” said one of that bank’s Singapore traders (not being laid off that day) to the FT. That reflects my experience at Citigroup and it is in contrast to my experience at the genuine merchant bank Hill Samuel where we were pretty cheerful. Surely now, a quarter century after the demise of the London merchant banks, it has become utterly clear: the behemoths like Deutsche, Barclays and Citi simply can’t do merchant banking competently, and should abandon it to smaller, nimbler houses.
July 16, 2019
U.S. Foreign Policy and Petroleum
July 11, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Jonathan Chanis During the last 45 years, the United States has experienced alternating periods of energy security and insecurity. There were the oil shocks of 1973–74 and 1979–81; the quiescent phase of the mid-1980s through the very early 2000s; the more difficult years of 2004–12; and now the current period of lower energy prices and more secure supplies. During all of these phases and even earlier, U.S. foreign policy was shaped either directly or indirectly by energy and petroleum security concerns.
July 11, 2019
Five Sobering Lessons From Iran’s Downing Of America’s Most Capable Drone
July 5, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Senior Advisor Loren Thompson, Iran's destruction of a U.S. Global Hawk unmanned aircraft with a surface-to-air missile near the Strait of Hormuz should be a wake-up call for proponents of autonomous or remotely-piloted war-fighting systems. The era of drone warfare is not upon us, because the vehicles currently available for military purposes are too limited in their capabilities to survive combat with a reasonably well-equipped adversary.
July 5, 2019
Saudi Arabia’s Transformation and U.S. Energy Security: Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst…
July 5, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Jonathan Chanis Since the elevation in June 2017 of Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to Crown Prince, or next in line to the King, instability in Saudi Arabia and the wider region has grown to such an extent that many observers and analysts now say the oil geopolitical risk premium—the additional amount of money buyers will pay for a barrel of oil due to future supply uncertainty—has returned.
How To Secure The Internet Of Battlefield Things From Cyber Attacks (From The National Interest)
June 30, 2019- Issue Brief by Daniel Gouré DoD also has a litany of consumer devices running on its networks, from printers to video monitors and cameras to refrigerators. These devices are continually communicating with one another, as well as with higher headquarters all the way back to the Pentagon. Some observers call this the “Internet of Battlefield Things” (IOBT). The exponential growth of the IOBT is creating new vulnerabilities to cyber attacks at an alarming rate.
July 3, 2019
Alaska, Area 1002, And U.S. Energy Security
July 2, 2019- Issue Brief By GPI Fellow Johnathan Chanis The recently passed Senate budget resolution provides the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee with a pathway to enhance U.S. energy security by opening Area 1002 of the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Petroleum production in Alaska peaked in 1988 at over 2 million barrels per day (mbd) and it has steadily declined since that time. It has fallen by over 1.5 mbd over peak 1988 levels and in 2016 averaged just 490,000 barrels per day (b/d). Throughout most of the 1980s and into the mid-1990s, Alaskan production represented over one-fth of total U.S. crude oil production—a development that greatly increased U.S. energy security. Similarly, today, opening Area 1002—a small part of the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge—to oil exploration and development can reduce U.S. foreign import dependence. Increasing domestic oil production is an economic and national security imperative.
July 2, 2019
Five Principles That Will Power President Trump’s Reelection (From Forbes)
July 2, 2019- Issue brief by Senior Adviser at GPI Loren B. Thompson The entire field of candidates seeking the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination seems to be trending leftward in the run-up to primary season. If history is any guide, that will enable President Trump to win a second term despite his manifest eccentricities. Five themes capture the tenor of Trump’s likely reelection bid–peace, prosperity, sovereignty, self-sufficiency and energy (meaning activism). It’s unlikely any progressive candidate can beat that lineup in 2020, assuming the economy remains strong. While Democrats will focus their message on domestic economic and social issues, the Trump campaign will be largely focused on security-related and nationalistic themes. That’s the kind of platform that typically prevails in our quadrennial political drama. I have written a commentary for Forbes
The Military Cost of Defending the Global Oil Supply
June 28, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Fellow Jonathan Chanis According to the calculations of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the cost to the United States of defending the global oil supply is zero. Failure to accurately assess the true military cost of protecting the global oil supply underestimates the value of the Fuel Economy Standards (FES) program to U.S. national security The zero-cost estimate comes from the way the U.S. government budgets for national defense. Since it is difficult to assign a cost to the oil protection mission—and since the Department of Defense (DoD) would realize no savings if this mission were not pursued—EPA and NHTSA conclude that it is pointless to assign any value above zero for this activity. This approach fails to account for the large opportunity costs of protecting the global oil supply.
June 28, 2019
Trump Drives Down Price Of F-35 Fighter 25% From Obama Level
June 17, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Loren B. Thompson; Media coverage of President Trump is so consistently negative that a casual observer might easily conclude he has accomplished nothing constructive during his time in the White House. But here is an example of a major spending program where the President pledged to save billions of dollars and proceeded to do precisely that through tough negotiating and relentless pressure.
June 21, 2019
Winston Churchill’s 1914 Turkey Bungles Haunt Trump in F-35 Crisis
June 14, 2019- Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Sieff Currently, the United States government with the enthusiastic support of far too much of Congress appears to be on a collision course to repeat a catastrophic bungle and insult against the nation of Turkey that Winston Churchill inflicted on the Ottoman Empire more than a century ago. Indeed, the most senior US officials in NATO, including Ambassador to the Alliance Kay Bailey Hutchison, have warned flatly that if Turkey goes ahead with its planned purchase of the excellent S-400 air defense system from Russia, then Washington will cancel its proposed sale of the F-035 to Ankara – a move that the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Turkish people alike would regard as the gravest and must humiliating insult.
June 14, 2019
Could China take a “Middle Kingdom” approach?
June 10, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson “Our Celestial Empire possesses all things in prolific abundance and lacks no product within its own borders” wrote the Qianlong Emperor to King George III through Lord Macartney in 1793. That turned out not to be true for Qianlong and his immediate successors, and China’s history over the next two centuries was an unhappy one of missed opportunities. But now that China has trained infinite numbers of its best and brightest in Western colleges, and transferred the best Western technology licitly or illicitly to itself, could the Qianlong approach work today?
June 10, 2019
Brexit Shows British Decline
June 4th, 2019- Issue brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach Brexit, or the process leading to Britain’s exit from the EU, touted just a few years ago by its vocal proponents as the beginning of a new course eventually leading to a vigorous British economic renaissance, quickly turned into a mix of farce and nightmare. Three years after the historic June 2016 referendum in which a (slim) majority of Britons declared that they wanted The United Kingdom to leave the European Union, there is still no deal; while Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May, consumed by the complexities of what turned out to be a monumental undertaking, had to resign after having suffered multiple political defeats and humiliations.
June 4, 2019
Where have all the Supranational Institutions gone?
June 4, 2019 - Issue brief by GPI fellow Martin Sieff : It has been a liberal democratic mantra endlessly repeated by supposedly wise men and women for three quarters of a century and relentlessly subscribed to the great and mighty of the world: The Age of the Nation State is Over. Every year, endless conferences and institutions from New York to Geneva and Davos repeat it by rote. The accepted narrative goes like this: “The Problems the World Faces have become Too Great and Too Complex to be tackled by any nation-state or collation of nation-states acting in concert. The World Must Come Together to solve its problems”
What will be the hot IPOs of 2029?
June 3, 2019 - Issue brief by Martin Hutchinson: "Investment bankers are very slow learners. That’s the only lesson that can be drawn from the catastrophic failure of the Uber Inc (NYSE:UBER) initial public offering. As this column has been writing for years, it was perfectly obvious that a loss-making taxi service with software attached was never going to be worth $100 billion. Frankly, despite all the cheap money thrown at venture capital, the IPOs in this cycle (which I take to be more or less over) have been very dull indeed. Will we get something more interesting next time around?"
June 3, 2019
After Theresa May Britain still in deep crisis
May 30, 2019 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Graham Bardgett: "UK Prime Minister Theresa May foresaw herself the damage her own Conservative Party would suffer in the European Parliament Elections, now probably the worst political defeat for the Tories in 200 years. She announced her resignation the day after the people went to the polls."
May 30, 2019
Conservatives punished by British voters in local elections
May 9, 2019: Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Graham Bardgett: "There is one staggering fact facing UK Prime Minister Theresa May: her Conservative Party lost a colossal 1,334 councilors in the English Local Authority elections. Mrs May claimed voters wanted the main parties, Conservatives and Labour, to "get on" with Brexit."
May 9, 2019
The Fracking Miracle: George P. Mitchell and the Renewal of American Energy
April 10, 2019 - Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Sieff: US Secretary of Energy Rick Perry is a happy man: U.S. crude oil production has soared above 12 million barrels a day and it now surpasses both Saudi Arabia and Russia. In the past few years, the United States has reclaimed the hugely powerful and lucrative position it was supposed to have abdicated forever more than half a century ago in 1967 – as the crucial swing oil and energy producer for the entire world.
April 10, 2019
The Invisible Giant That Dominates Eurasia
April 4, 2019 - Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Sieff: The largest military organization in the history of the world has just announced its annual main military exercises. And the organization is not NATO. The decision to hold the joint exercise -- "Sary-Arka-Antiterror 2019" -- was announced the day before during the 34th meeting of the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) council of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Tashkent, capital of Uzbekistan. Delegations from India, Kazakhstan, China, the Kyrgyz Republic, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan attended the meeting, the report said.
April 4, 2019
Two States with no Solution in Sight
March 27, 2019- Issue brief by GPI Research Associate Charles W. Simmons: A major policy shift is underway in Washington. President Trump signed a declaration recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, a Jewish settlement in Southwest Syria that was seized by Israel during the 1967 Six Days War because the high elevation – a strategic military advantage – allowed Syrians to easily aim at and hit Israeli targets. It was later annexed by Israel in 1981 but is not legally recognized by the international community.
March 27, 2019
Brexit still unsolved: Another Referendum, revoke Article 50? Or may be no deal
March 25, 2019 - Issue brief by Graham Bardgett : Astonishing numbers of people estimated at hundreds of thousands marched through central London Saturday 23 March calling for another referendum on EU membership.
March 25, 2019
Global Peace Endures – But Should Not Be Taken for Granted
March 21, 2019 - Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Sieff: There has been no war between the major industrial powers of the world that girdle the Northern Hemisphere for almost 74 years since the end of World War II. However, other forms of warfare abound, and the global outlook remains sobering – to say the least.
March 21, 2019
“Never again”, remembering the Rwanda genocide
March 16, 2019 - Issue brief by GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon: No country in modern times has been convulsed by murderous atrocities as frenzied and terrifying as the 1994 genocide against the Tutsis in Rwanda. For 100 days, beginning in April, soldiers and armed gangs roamed the country, shooting, stabbing, drowning and hacking to death around 800,000 men, women and children – denounced by extremist Hutus as enemies of the country and cockroaches who had to be exterminated.
Parliamentary procedural obstacles add to the Brexit mess
March 20, 2019 - Issue brief by GPI Fellow Graham Bardgett: A gigantic spanner thrown into the workings of the affairs of State left Downing Street apparently deadlocked over what happens next in the Brexit drama. One Government official, the Solicitor General, even speculated that Parliament could be procedurally suspended to solve the impasse. Was Brexit going to have to be delayed? Would Brexit be delayed for weeks or months? Or would Brexit be cancelled altogether with a request for Article 50 to be revoked?
March 20, 2019
Theresa May defeated on Brexit – again
March 13, 2019 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Graham Bardgett: "Blame it on the air conditioning of the aircraft she flew in to and from Strasbourg – but her voice did not carry the vote in the most crucial of decisions Westminster MPs would ever take. She struggled briefly in the midnight press conference in Strasbourg, her glass of water was there but she was determined to carry on. Even the EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was about to reach over to Mrs May to get the glass of water – but she still carried on."
March 13, 2019
Europe has to deal with the returning ISIS fighters
March 1, 2019 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon: What should be done with more than 800 extremist foreign fighters who have fled or been captured after the fall of the last town still held by the so-called Islamic State of Syria and Iraq? President Trump wants those who made their way to Syria from Europe to join Isis to be returned to their home countries. They should all be put on trial, he said in tweet at the weekend.
March 1, 2019
The 3M’s: Merkel, Macron and May – Europe’s Three Loser Leaders
March 1, 2019 - Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Sieff - Just as “The Book of Revelation” warns against the coming of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, the three main countries of Western Europe are being led into their greatest crises since World War II by The Three M’s – Angela Merkel of Germany, Emmanuel Macron of France, and Theresa May of the United Kingdom.
Only weeks before Brexit, UK not ready
February 15, 2019 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Graham Bardgett: "UK firms have accused the British Government of leaving them "hung out to dry" in the event of a no-deal Brexit amid fears of economic catastrophe. With 29 March scheduled to be the date the UK leaves the EU, the British Chambers of Commerce warned 20 key questions remain unresolved."
February 16, 2019
The decline of good economics
January 29, 2019 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "There are many reasons why the Industrial Revolution happened in Britain in 1775-1850, but among the most important is the high quality of economic thought among British policymakers of that period. Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus and David Ricardo gave them an excellent grounding in free market economics, and few statesmen of that period opposed their doctrines. Alas, over the last two centuries the quality of economic discourse has steadily declined. Spurious economic theories have appeared, and statesmen seem determined to avoid the correct ones."
January 29, 2019
The Decay of Property Rights
January 28, 2019 - Issue Brief by GP Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "New York Mayor Bill de Blasio claimed last week that there was plenty of money for his pet projects, but it was “in the wrong hands.” In response, The Wall Street Journal, supposedly the voice of capitalism, gave a turgid list of rich New Yorkers’ charitable donations, while blasting the inefficiencies of de Blasio’s administration."
January 28, 2019
Unresolved Brexit Caused Political Chaos in Britain
January 24, 2019 - Issue brief by GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon: "Britain’s attempt to leave the European Union has now caused a full-blown political and economic crisis. Recently the deal negotiated with the European Union by Theresa May was rejected by Parliament by a massive 230 votes – the biggest defeat suffered by a prime minister in modern British history. Her political authority has all but vanished. Her cabinet is openly split on what should now happen and further resignations are likely. Her attempt to seek a compromise with opposition parties has failed, with the Labour party leader calling it merely a public relations deception."
January 24, 2019
UK Prime Minister determined to get Brexit deal
January 17, 2019 - Issue brief by GPI Fellow Graham Bardgett: "Despite a crushing defeat on her Brexit Treaty Deal UK Prime Minister Theresa May has been meeting party leaders to find a compromise. And after clinging onto power by a majority of only 19 in the 306 to 325 No Confidence Vote  Labour's Jeremy Corbyn called the talks a "stunt" and said he will not take part unless a "no deal" Brexit is ruled out. "
January 17, 2019
Looking forward to Dow 11,000
January 2, 2019 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "It has been a bad December for the stock markets. But pundits across the land are predicting a recovery in the New Year from this terrible drop. They are probably right, if the underlying monetary policy fundamentals remain unchanged. Short-term market fluctuations are unpredictable. But the reality remains: owing to decades of funny money, made possible by unprecedented US Fed low interest policies, the market has got far ahead of its equilibrium value, which is now around 11,000 on the Dow that is half the present level. If the current trend leading us back to normal interest rates comes to fruition, it is worth examining what a world with Dow 11,000 will look like."
January 2, 2019
No, Mr. President, there isn’t a Santa Claus
December 27, 2018 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "President Trump’s economic policies are mostly very sensible. Yet in two areas he has indulged in wishful thinking, proclaiming essentially that Santa Claus will bail out the United States. One is fiscal policy, where he has not restrained spending, nor produced any plan beyond faster economic growth to solve the nation’s yawning budget deficit. The other is monetary policy, where he rails against the Fed’s attempts to restore sanity, and believes its job is to act as Santa Claus, bailing the U.S. out of recessions. Well, Mr. President, there is no Santa Claus."
December 27, 2018
After the Midterms: The Invisible Victory of the US Industrial Northeast
December 20, 2018 - Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Sieff: "The outcome of the November 2018 midterm US Congressional elections was not the sweeping blue wave of Democratic triumph repudiating with national rage the policies of certainly controversial President Donald Trump: But almost un-noticed it confirmed the shock basic results of the 2016 presidential elections."
December 20, 2018
America’s Energy Future
December 20, 2018 - Issue brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "The good news is that America is now among the top three world fossil fuels producers. The bad news is that increased US fossil fuels production will create a disincentive in exploring and then deploying needed alternatives to fossil fuels."
Confusion in London as no deal Brexit crisis looms
December 19, 2018 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Graham Bardgett: "Picture this: some British troops have now been put on standby, as the leaders of UK industry warn they are watching the unresolved Brexit crisis in horror. With just 100 days before Britain is due to leave the EU, the Defence Secretary of State Gavin Williamson told Parliament he had already placed 3,500 troops and reservists on standby to help in any contingencies."
December 19, 2018
The Madness of cities
December 18, 2018 - Issue Brief by Martin Hutchinson: "Charles Mackay’s 1841 masterpiece asserted that the “madness of crowds” created “extraordinary popular delusions” that led to investment bubbles and crashes. Recent events suggest that when those crowds congregate in cities, rationality flies out of the window, and delusions infect the entire urban body politic."
The unending Brexit drama
December 14, 2018 - Issue brief by GPI Fellow Graham Bardgett: "After surviving a Confidence Vote by her own MPs -- 200 to 117 was the Secret Ballot result -- the British Prime Minister has been in Brussels again for another EU summit."
December 14, 2018
UK PM May facing leadership challenge
December 12, 2018 - Issue Brief by Graham Bardgett: "UK Prime Minister Theresa May faced a vote of confidence in her leadership on December 12, as her own Conservative Party decides her future."
December 12, 2018
Britain’s Brexit crisis
December 19, 2018 - Issue Brief by Graham Bardgett: "Facing humiliating defeat over her Brexit policy, the UK Prime Minister Theresa May on December 10 called off the British House of Commons MP vote on the negotiated deal with the EU."
December 10, 2018
The costs of consensus
October 19, 2018 - Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "In many areas, such as monetary policy, the U.S. Supreme Court, corporate Boards of Directors and Cabinet government, decisions are made by arriving at a group consensus. If the group is sufficiently intellectually diverse, this works well. There is however a pernicious danger, which we have seen in action many times in economic policy, where an entire group forms a consensus around a generally held elite opinion."
October 19, 2018
The Only Way Donald Trump Can Truly Put America First (From The National Interest)
October 12, 2018 - Issue brief by Douglas Macgregor: "If the last two decades have taught the American people anything, conflict anywhere in the world is by no means a threat to peace everywhere. We must reorder our priorities if America’s national interests are going to be advanced."
October 12, 2018
Towards the asset-light economy
October 10, 2018 - Issue brief by Martin Hutchinson: "The last two decades of low interest rates have seen a vast increase in the world’s stock of assets, measured at market value, largely matched by a corresponding increase in debt. However, the increase has not raised global productivity growth, which has slowed as the asset glut has increased."
Learning the right lessons from 2008
September 21, 2018 - Issue brief by Martin Hutchinson "Learning the right lessons from financial crises is tough. The 1929 stock market crash was blamed for all the ills of the Great Depression that succeeded it and led to two decades of regulation and socialism. After the 1720 financial debacle, the British tried to stop all new company formations while the French gave up on finance altogether and started plotting revolution. So, it is unlikely that we have learned the right lessons from the 2008 meltdown; but it’s worth asking what lessons we should have learned, to avoid the same mistakes again.
September 21, 2018
America about to leave Afghanistan?
September 12, 2018 - Issue brief by Paolo von Schirach: "US Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Joseph Dunford recently made an unexpected visit to Kabul, Afghanistan in order to meet with Government officials."
September 12, 2018
The delusions of infrastructure spending
September 7, 2018 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "President Trump is wise in many things, but he has two economic beliefs that are irredeemably foolish: low interest rates and infrastructure. To the joy of die-hard Hillary-lovers, I now propose to criticize one of those two beliefs: that in infrastructure. By and large, it is thoroughly overpriced currently, and very often it yields far more costs than benefits, as examples around the world can show."
September 7, 2018
John McCain and the Funeral of America’s Uni-power Moment
September 7, 2018 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Sieff: "Who really mourned during the week of exceptional honors for Senator John McCain and what did they really mourn for?  Who really grieved and why? It did not appear to be the American public. At best they were casually respectful. The coverage of his funeral showed at least in Washington DC a respectful stream of thousands of mourners. But there was no outpouring of either numbers or grief."
Trump Rides High After Victories for His Candidates in US Primary Races
September 6, 2018 - Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Sieff: "A wave of primary voting contests in the four US states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Vermont and Connecticut to choose candidates for the November 2018 midterm election has confirmed President Donald Trump’s growing clout in the Republican Party. The voting continued the pattern of the previous round of primary contests on August 7 when GOP candidates supported by Trump also won their primary races against challengers within their own party, confirming the president’s enduring popularity and hold over Republican grassroots voters."
September 6, 2018
The New Immigrants And America’s Future Identity
August 8, 2018 - Issue brief by Paolo von Schirach: "We now know that the Australian government is openly concerned that, unless it can manage its immigration policies properly, there is a risk that Australia may soon lose its political and cultural identity. There is fear that there are now too many new economic immigrants who, while living and working in Australia, do not fully understand and embrace the core values that bind Australia together. If this were indeed the case, the country will soon lose its identity and become something else."
August 9, 2018
Trump’s Vision & NATO’s Future: Streamline The Alliance For Modern War
July 19, 2018, Douglas Macgregor, It would be wrong for Europeans to conclude that President Trump wants to withdraw all US forces from Europe. The President simply wants the US military to be NATO’s security guarantor of last resort, not NATO’s "first responder."
July 19, 2018
The Importance of Japan’s Security Role Under Trump
Issue brief by Dr. Satoru Nagao, "On January 12-17 2017, Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited the Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. To bolster regional defense and security, he emphasized that change to the status quo cannot be accepted if it is advanced by force or coercion. He underscored the importance of rule-based approaches. Simultaneously, he insisted upon a "Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy." These were the main themes of this visit."
July 18, 2018
Germany must stop beggaring its neighbors
June 25, 2018 - Issue brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s staff published a photo taken at the recent G7 summit that showed Merkel glowering at a defiant President Donald Trump, suggesting that Trump was isolated and alienating America’s allies. Yet when we examine actual behavior, it is Germany that is beggaring its neighbors and failing to live up to international obligations."
June 25, 2018
Does America Need Nuclear Power?
June 4, 2018 - Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "Can nuclear power come back as a cost-effective modality to generate electricity in America? Some scientists and innovators claim that the sector, challenged by prohibitively high costs of construction and fears of accidents may have a future after all, and it is called Small Modular Reactors, or SMRs. According to them, it would appear that the sweet spot for nuclear will not be in the traditional model of large scale, expensive and difficult to build power plants that will serve millions of customers."
June 4, 2018
Italy in political chaos
May 31, 2018 - Issue brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "Italy is once again the problem country within the European Union (EU) and beyond.  And this time it may be a really huge problem. After the recent inconclusive political elections, the most improbable governmental coalition between the anti-system 5 Star party and the nationalist/xenophobic League party in the end could not happen on account of Paolo Savona, the openly anti-euro nominee placed by the two would-be coalition partners as Minister in charge of the Economy."
May 31, 2018
Can Charter Schools be used as a Tool for Diversity in Schools?
May 23, 2018 - Issue Brief by GPI Executive Director and Fellow Deniz Karatas: On May 15, 2018 the Century Foundation convened an event on diversity in U.S. public schools and how to use charter schools as a tool for creating more racially and economically integrated schools. We are in 2018, but unfortunately segregated schools remain a reality across the U.S.
May 24, 2018
Why Self-driving Cars? Upgrade Bus Networks Instead
May 22, 2018 - Issue brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "The ongoing buzz about the marvel of "driverless cars" soon hitting the roads is a bit too optimistic. A great deal of money and effort is devoted to perfecting this futuristic technology. We know that Google and other high-tech companies are involved in this research. General Motors has entered a $ 500 million partnership with Lyft to produce a robot vehicle that will drive itself. Eventually it will be managed by Uber or similar services and used for ride-sharing."
May 22, 2018
The U.S. Army Could Revolutionize Long-Range Fires (From RealClearDefense)
May 18, 2018 - Issue brief by Daniel Goure: "In recent testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Army Secretary Mark Esper revealed that Long-Range Precision Fires (LRPF) is his service’s top priority. Currently, the Army has a multi-phased program designed to first improve and then transform the capabilities of its artillery, rocket and missile systems."
The appalling seductiveness of Karl Marx
May 21, 2018 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "The 200th birthday of Karl Marx on May 5 passed with several indications, in both Europe and China that his appeal is not dead. Indeed, it is showing considerable signs of revival. China has significantly reversed its move away from Marxism, whereas elements in the EU High Command seem to be recognizing that something like a centralized “Marxist dictatorship” is what they are aiming for. “Big Data” possibilities bring forth the frightening chance that Marxism may actually work – better than it did, at any rate, when it comes to centralized resources management. If this is so, how can a freedom-lover fight this apparently inexorable trend?"
May 21, 2018
The world’s greatest need is fewer people
May 17, 2018 - Issue Brief by Martin Hutchinson: "While we are in a brief period of decent global growth, the underlying productivity trends in rich countries are disquietingly low. What’s more, it now seems likely that, except in the United States, we will not get out of the zero-interest rate lunacy before the next downturn. And even more disquieting is a re-acceleration of global population growth, so that the United Nations’ 2100 projection has risen from 10.1 billion to 11.2 billion just in the few years since 2010.  The vicious combination, of foolish policy, low productivity growth and rapid population growth, seems likely to push large chunks of humanity back into poverty."
May 17, 2018
The coming power revolution for developed and developing countries
May 7, 2018 - Issue brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "When it comes to electric power generation and distribution, in developed countries we are used to a basic tried and tested old model. Large power plants produce electricity. From these sites, relying on a complex network of power lines, (the power grid), electricity is delivered to customers, be it industrial plants, offices or individual homes. The fuel used for power generation can be coal, gas, nuclear or hydro. More recently we have developed renewable energy: wind, solar and biomass."
May 7, 2018
No More Special Relationship
May 2, 2018 - Issue Brief by GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon: "It was always assumed that Britain, enjoying a “special relationship” with the United States, would be the first foreign focus of any new American president. No longer. Donald Trump made his first presidential visit overseas to Saudi Arabia. And Emmanuel Macron, feted across Washington after a triumphal state visit, is now seen in the White House as Trump’s best friend and the European leader with whom he can do business."
May 2, 2018
A Currency Board System would strengthen Turkey’s economy    
April 27, 2018 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Billur Guner Cohen: "Since the 1980s financial crises, developing countries have struggled with implementing effective exchange rate regimes. As a developing country, Turkey too has suffered from economic and financial crises since the transformation and liberalization of its economy in the 1980s. And deciding the optimum exchange rate system for the Turkish economy remains one of its most controversial problems."
April 27, 2018
The Movement to Delete Facebook
April 23, 2018 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Fazle Chowdhury: "Mark Zuckerberg, CEO and founder of Facebook said the Delete Facebook campaign has had little impact. He is right. 4% loss in Facebook stock is hardly a hit for a company that has a revenue stream of more than $40 billion. Bear in mind that 98% of its income comes from advertisers."
April 23, 2018
The Toothless FAANGs
April 12, 2018 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "For several years, the stocks of the FAANGs (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) have been the way to make serious money. Over the five years to December 31, 2017, the FAANG stocks returned 41.6% annualized, compared with 18.6% for the S&P 500 Index, to trade at almost 70 times historic earnings by that point. Yet all five of the FAANG stocks have weaknesses in their business models that are becoming increasingly apparent, suggesting that they are just today’s equivalent of the 1999 dot-coms, the 1972 Nifty Fifty, the 1929 Investment Trusts, or the 1720 South Sea Company."
April 12, 2018
De-globalization Gathering Momentum
March 15, 2018 - Issue Brief by Martin Hutchinson: "President Trump’s sudden announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminum is by no means unprecedented – Presidents Reagan and George W. Bush took similar actions. Yet it emphasizes a reality I first pointed back in 2010: the globalization project, beloved of Whig economists and big-government types everywhere, is falling apart. De-globalization is here to stay and, contrary to Whig belief, it will be good for the world economy and for our living standards."
March 15, 2018
Debt and Taxes become more inevitable
March 9, 2018 - Issue Brief by Martin Hutchinson: "The White House 2019 Budget is pure fantasy. However, it assumes a deficit in the fiscal year to October 2019 of $984 billion. If this is not enough, Congress’s 2-year Budget deal has added at least $80 billion more spending, pushing the federal budget deficit well over $1 trillion. Since we are at the top of a business cycle, with unemployment around 4%, this is very disquieting. That said, the driver of current deficits is more a past lack of productivity than a burst in profligacy, and it is there that we must look for a solution."
March 9, 2018
Britain’s beloved Queen Elizabeth
March 6, 2018 - Issue brief by Michael Binyon, "On a cold dull day in February 1952, a 25-year old princess came to the British throne on the death of her father King George VI. Queen Elizabeth II, as she became, has now been 66 years on the throne – longer than any British king or queen for the past 1,000 years and among the longest-reigning monarchs in the world."
March 6, 2018
An Anglo-Saxon Chronicle of Failure
February 22, 2018 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "Theresa May’s negotiations for Britain’s exit from the European Union are not going well. Time and again, she has been forced to back down, notably over an outrageous EU demand for 40 billion pounds of exit money. Since that demand, negotiations have grown no easier, as the EU has attempted to impose further outrageous conditions, such as a veto over Britain’s trade treaties."
February 22, 2018
Ozmen’s Selection For Space Council Advisory Group Signals Sierra Nevada’s Arrival As Major Player
February 22, 2018 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Loren B. Thompson: "The National Space Council disclosed on Tuesday of this week that Sierra Nevada Corporation CEO Fatih Ozmen has been selected as a candidate to join the council’s user advisory group.  This is a clear signal that privately-held SNC has ascended to the first tier of players in the domestic space sector.  Sierra Nevada is jointly owned by CEO Ozmen and his wife Eren, who serves as President of the company."
America Needs to Think About the Next War—Before It’s Too Late
February 22, 2018 - Issue Brief by Douglas Macgregor: "Inside democratic societies, shrewd and far-sighted defense strategies focused on modernizing armed forces for future wars are always difficult to achieve. Thus, when a modernization strategy succeeds as it did in 1991 with the Battle of 73 Easting, Americans should pay attention. At 4:18 PM on 26 February 1991, the two lead cavalry troops of an 1,100-man Armored Cavalry Squadron consisting of Abrams tanks, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and supporting artillery charged out of a sandstorm and attacked a full-strength 2,500-man Iraqi Republican Guard Brigade with T-72 tanks, BMPs and artillery in the Iraqi desert along the North-South grid line referred to as “73 Easting.”
Cooperatives are a useful capitalist tool
February 14, 2018 - Issue Brief by GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "Britain’s Labour Party has now committed to re-nationalizing many of the utilities that were privatized to such fanfare under Lady Thatcher in the 1980s. Reluctantly, we should admit that in certain respects the Labour Party has a point. Monopolies owned by private equity groups, as have appeared in the water industry, offer no accountability to anybody. But there is a better alternative, bringing both accountability and a proper incentive structure, much used in capitalism’s earlier days: the customer-owned cooperative."
February 14, 2018
Endless terrorism in Afghanistan
February 2, 2018 - By GPI Fellow Fazle Chowdhury: "The recent blast shook Kabul’s streets. The incident appeared to be near a central part of the city with offices of European Union, a shopping market area and a hospital. The bomb exploded in the crowded street at 12:15pm Kabul time on Saturday January 27. It was set off by an attacker who managed to pass through a very tight security checkpoint disguised as a driver of a hospital van.
February 2, 2018
Why the Army Isn’t Prepared for the Next Great War
January 31, 2018 - Issue brief by GPI Senior Adviser Douglas Macgregor via The National Interest: "After years of service inside the U.S. military’s cutthroat bureaucracy, senior officers can recite the lessons of the past, but very few can grasp their future implications. The challenge is to find ways to create --today-- the armed forces capable of dealing with tomorrow's threats."
February 1, 2018
The “secular stagnation” that wasn’t
January 30, 2018 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson, "Rarely can two economists of such eminence have been made to look so foolish so quickly. In 2015, Robert J. Gordon wrote a book proclaiming that the lousy productivity growth that we had seen in recent years was the best we could expect now and in the future. In January 2016 Paul Krugman reviewed it enthusiastically in the New York Times. Low productivity is due, we were told, to “secular stagnation”. The U.S. economy simply run out of gas. Hence low GDP growth."
January 30, 2018
Britain’s Ineffective Prime Minister
January 22, 2018 - By Michael Binyon: Bad luck attracts more bad luck. Theresa May, Britain’s embattled prime minister, has already suffered almost a year of political setbacks, blows to her authority and embarrassing squabbles and resignations from her cabinet. Last week came another blow from across the Atlantic. Donald Trump, leader of Britain’s closest political ally, announced that he was cancelling his planned visit to London.
January 22, 2018
Trump’s Complicated Pakistan Problem
January 18, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Fazle Chowdhury: "The Trump administration has recently announced that it will eliminate almost all security aid to Pakistan, cutting the already delayed $255m military aid which Pakistan has been anticipating for the better part of 2017 - citing that the country has “failed to deal with terrorist networks operating on its soil."
January 18, 2018
Oprah for President?
January 15, 2018 - By GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "Oprah for President? Yes, after her recent Hollywood speech this is now a distinctly possible scenario for the 2020 presidential contest. Well, are we to conclude that America has gone mad? Are we going to see a presidential contest between highly polarizing former developer and reality TV star Donald Trump and Oprah, the much loved queen of inspiring TV talk shows?"
January 15, 2018
Trump Decision to Transfer US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem Risks Setting Off New Era of Dangerous Instability
January 5, 2018 - By GPI Fellow Martin Sieff: "President Donald Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel was a rash and unfortunate move that threatens to unleash a new era of destabilization across the Middle East."
January 5, 2018
Gross Imaginary Product creates fake wealth
January 1, 2018 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "In the era of crypto-currencies, I propose a new economic statistic: Gross Imaginary Product, GIP. This can be defined as the total output at market prices of all products and services which do not actually exist. Contrary to popular superstition, not all the $350 billion value of crypto-currencies is imaginary. There are some real values there. Conversely, in the physical economy, in California, London, Japan and in other places distorted by “funny money” there are apparently “real” values that are in truth purely imaginary."
January 2, 2018
What is really happening in Iran?
January 2, 2018 - By GPI Fellow Fazle Chowdhury: "Those who damage public property, disrupt order and break the law must be responsible for their behavior and pay the price," stated Abdolreza Rahmani-Fazli, Iran's Interior Minister. "The spreading of violence, fear and terror will definitely be confronted", he continued.
Trump and the Jerusalem Issue
December 18, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Fazle Chowdhury: "Jerusalem is and has been the Capital of Israel since 5 December, 1949; though this Israeli decision has never been recognized by the International community. President Trump recognized this “reality” on December 6, 2017; 68 years and one day after Israel made its announcement regarding the capital city. As part of this policy change by America, Trump ordered the U.S. State Department to move the American Embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv."
December 18, 2017
North Korea Won’t Start a War – Trump Shouldn’t Launch an Attack
December 15, 2017 - By Douglas Macgregor: "Listen to the mainstream media and President Trump’s national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, and you would conclude that war on the Korean Peninsula is imminent, right? You’d be wrong. The only way a war breaks out in Northeast Asia is if Washington starts it. Let me tell you why. The 50-year war between North Korea and its neighbor South Korea is over. North Korea lost. Dictator Kim Jong Un now presides over a dying society in the North – a prison camp full of about 25 million miserable, starving people masquerading as a country. North Korea lags in economic terms somewhere behind Ethiopia."
December 15, 2017
Tax Cuts Will Increase The U.S. National Debt To Unsustainable Levels
December 6, 2017 - By Paolo von Schirach: "It is really hard to properly assess the Republican tax reform proposal now discussed in Congress. Many details have yet to be ironed out. Sure, in principle we can agree that a basic reform leading to a simplification of the almost incomprehensible U.S. Tax Code would be much better than the confusing morass we have now."
December 7, 2017
Palace Coup In Zimbabwe Will Not Bring Along Genuine
December 5, 2017 - By Paolo von Schirach: "Despite some last minute confusion regarding the timing of his exit, Robert “Mad Bob” Mugabe is finally gone. He is a despot, a cruel dictator, and the undisputed author of Zimbabwe’s economic ruin. After 37 years of autocracy, is this finally good riddance? Well, I would not bet on a good outcome. A happy ending is highly unlikely. Indeed, this sudden change at the top of the government in Zimbabwe is certainly not about an injured nation that finally rebels against its tormentor, forcing him out of power while creating genuine foundations for democratic rule and true accountability."
December 5, 2017
Under Funny Money, We’re All Living in Vegas
December 4, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: " 'True investing is not the same as gambling' said Isabella Kaminska in The Financial Times recently. Yet in today’s world, I’m damned if I can spot the difference. Bonds are a one-way bet to losses; the stock market is at levels it should not have reached until 2075; London real estate is at levels it should never have reached at all; and only crypto-currencies appear to offer sound long-term value. Whatever the differences were between investing and gambling, they have disappeared. That reality has unpleasant implications for our future."
December 4, 2017
The disaster of negative productivity growth
November 21, 2017 - By Martin Hutchinson: "Capitalism requires capital. The process of industrialization is partly one of technological advance; but it is also one of increasing capital use in the economy. However, when the return to capital is forced below zero, as in the last decade, the capital base shrinks, the economy misbehaves and productivity declines, in spite of technological wizardry. Thanks to the world’s central banks, that is happening now in every advanced country. The rich world’s economy is thus in a death spiral, and it is not clear what forces can be used to get us out."
November 21, 2017
Russia now a major player in the Middle East
November 20, 2017 - By Michael Binyon: In the Middle East, one of the world’s most strategic regions, Russia now holds all the cards in its hand. President Putin’s recent visit to Tehran, where he signed a $30 billion energy deal, completes the total of the countries he has courted that now depend crucially on Moscow for future economic and political stability. Meanwhile America, once a controlling power in the region, is nowhere to be seen.
A Must Read for Trump’s National Security Team
November 17, 2017 - By Daniel Gouré of Lexington Institute: "A newly published report from the American Enterprise Institute, authored by Mackenzie Eaglen, Repair and Rebuild: Balancing New Military Spending for a Three Theater Strategy, should be required reading for the entire national security establishment. The report’s author must be complimented for addressing the disconnect between the magnitude and variety of core U.S. national interests and vital security commitments on one side of the ledger, and the inability of the current U.S. military to defend them all, on the other side. Repair and Rebuild rejects the false choice often found in the current defense debate between the need to shore up current readiness and the requirement to modernize in anticipation of future threats. Instead, it recognizes that the military must do both with an emphasis on ameliorating current weaknesses and capability gaps. Repair and Rebuild provides detailed recommendations for both near-term actions to repair the damage done to the military by decades of underfunding and overuse and initial investments that begin the process of rebuilding its erstwhile preeminence".
November 17, 2017
The Bottom Line on Electric Cars: They’re Cheaper To Own
November 16, 2017 - By Constance Douris of Lexington Institute: "The price of electric vehicles is coming down, but they still look expensive compared with many gasoline-powered cars. That comparison, though, is misleading. Once you figure in the cost of ownership, especially maintenance and fuel, electric vehicles are a bargain despite the up-front price tag".
The Tragedy of the Slave Trade
November 14, 2017 - By Michael Binyon: "Locked in a box for eight years, the skeletons of more than 320 African captives liberated from 19th century slave ships are to be reburied on the remote island of St Helena, the site of the largest slave graveyard in the world. They could prove a vital link in tracing the history of slavery from Africa to the Americas, and are likely to provoke enormous interest in the United States."
November 15, 2017
Hollowed-Out Blue Chips Are The Next Subprime
November 13, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: " Subprime mortgages caused much of the 2008 financial crisis by defaulting in much greater concentrations than the experts expected. The next financial crisis is likely to be caused by a similar disaster that surprises the experts. I have an excellent candidate: Fortune 500 companies that have been repurchasing their shares like maniacs for a decade, and in many cases have left themselves with negative net worth. In a major recession, when their business drops off and their cash flow turns negative, they will only need a breath of adverse wind to default. Like the subprime mortgages, once a few major companies default, the rest, with fragile credit structures, will fall like dominoes."
November 14, 2017
Trade and Immigration Need Good Garden Fences
October 31, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: " 'Good fences make good neighbor' wrote Robert Frost in 1914. Those who have lived in both British and modern American suburbs can agree. High fences are not ideal; you can’t talk to people across them. But nor are a complete lack of fences, which allows gangs of neighborhood kids to race across your garden every afternoon, spreading destruction. The ideal is modest fences, low enough to communicate across yet sufficient to act as a barrier and a reminder of a private space. The metaphor is highly applicable to trade and immigration policy."
October 31, 2017
Trump Tax Reform Won’t Goose Growth
October 30, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: " President Trump’s proposed budget justifies its potential $1.5 trillion increase in the Federal deficit over ten years by claiming it will increase the anemic U.S. growth rate, thereby paying for itself. After the third quarter GDP growth figures released Friday, there can be no question that the U.S. economic growth rate has increased under Trump, with his relentless deregulation effort, (or simply ceasing to pile on additional regulation), as the main spur to boosting an economy that had been burdened with non-market interest rates and silly leftist regulatory efforts. But Trump’s proposed tax changes are a different matter; they are by no means clearly supply-side in their likely effect, and thus they may simply deprive the Federal government of much needed revenue."
October 30, 2017
Boeing Thinks Airbus Is Making A Big Mistake With Bombardier Partnership (From Forbes)
October 27, 2017 - By Loren Thompson of Lexington Institute: "Early coverage of the proposed partnership between Airbus and Bombardier to build the latter company’s CSeries jetliners has made the deal sound like a setback for Boeing. That isn’t the way Boeing sees it. It could have gotten the same deal Airbus got, and chose to not pursue a relationship. Regardless of what role Airbus plays on the CSeries, Boeing expects that hefty duties will be imposed on imports of the planes into the U.S. for years to come. Bombardier will not be able to escape those duties by performing some production at the Airbus complex in Alabama, and any significant shift of jobs there from Canada would create a political firestorm in Bombardier’s home market. After all, Airbus was able to secure a majority interest in CSeries without spending any money — after Canada has spent billions of dollars keeping Bombardier afloat. Airbus will face its own issues with subsidies in the coming year, as the World Trade Organization rules that European governments have failed to remedy illegal launch aid that hurts U.S. industry. That could lead to harsh countermeasures, impairing Airbus business prospects almost as much as the impending demise of its A380 superjumbo. "
October 27, 2017
“Mississippi Company” Economics
October 19, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: " We have seen today’s economics in action before. Not in the 1720 South Sea Bubble – that was a simple stock market frenzy, similar to that of 1999, with a debt conversion scheme buried in it, but no excessive leverage. However, the almost exactly contemporary Mississippi Company/ Banque Royale scheme, devised in Paris by the Scots financier John Law – that, truly, bears a hideous resemblance to today’s markets, sparked off by a very similar monetary policy. Its collapse and the denouement thereof is also instructive. "
October 19, 2017
Electric Cars? Better Invest in a Horse
October 11, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "Britain intends to ban the purchase of internal combustion and diesel engine cars in 2040, hoping to make everyone switch to electric cars, (EVs). California, China and France all have similar schemes in place. These government decisions naturally provide yet another implicit subsidy to Tesla Motors (Nasdaq:TSLA) whose first quarter’s production of its latest “mass market” model totaled a magnificent 260 machines. For those of us needing reliable transportation for work or shopping, it may be time to invest in a horse."
October 11, 2017
Maybe Brexit Will Not Be So Hard: UK-EU Trade Overstated
October 3, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Gabriel Unruh: "As Brexit negotiations continue, much news has been swirling about the UK’s ability to economically rebound from the consequences of a potential “hard-Brexit.” Even a Brexit which still places the UK somewhat in the European Union will come with trade restrictions which will significantly limit UK trade volumes with EU states. But, what if some of this pain could be quickly diminished once UK imports and exports flow directly to and from UK ports, as opposed to passing through EU ports?"
October 3, 2017
Konrad Adenauer Would Disagree With Merkel
October 3, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: " Angela Merkel won most votes on September 24, but her certainty of leading the next government with only 33% of the vote, a fall of 8.6%, is a sad commentary on proportional representation voting systems. Calls last year for her to be appointed “the savior of Europe” or “the leader of the free world” now seem laughably premature. In reality, Merkel represents the worst of today’s globalist-leftist tradition, with all the economy- and society- destroying traits that infest it. Konrad Adenauer, Germany’s great post-war Chancellor and founder of the Christian Democrat party she leads, would despise her. "
After Merkel’s Narrow Victory Governing Germany Will be Difficult
September 25, 2017 - By GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon "The election victory of Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, who has been swept back into office for a fourth term, confirms her as the undisputed leader of Europe and one of the most influential statesmen in the world today."
September 25, 2017
The Politicization of Big Business
September 25, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "The collapse of President Trump’s business advisory councils had little to do with Trump’s policies, or even his way of presenting issues. After all, the business leaders had joined the councils after Trump became President, so knew what they were getting into. Traditionally, businesses have been careful to maintain political neutrality, so their strong opposition to President Trump appears surprising. Yet in reality, 22 years of funny money have corrupted businesses as they have economic life in general. In this age of crony capitalism, you can expect to find CEOs in the media friendly activist left."
Ukraine Bets on PPPs For Infrastructure Modernization
September 8, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Eugene Spiro: "While Ukraine’s state-owned seaport facilities labor under serious need of repair and modernization, the country’s Ministry of Infrastructure (MoI) is taking a “can do” approach in seeking to upgrade the country’s ports via concessions and public-private partnerships (PPPs)."
September 8, 2017
Low Skills Workers Needed in Order to Strengthen Productive Economies
August 25, 2017 - Martin Hutchinson: "Many of Maynard Keynes’ dreams were destructive to civilization. The euthanasia of the rentier, which central bankers worldwide are still trying to achieve, has hopelessly corrupted the capital allocation process and brought productivity growth to a halt."
August 25, 2017
Choosing A New Trainer Might Prove Challenging For The Air Force (From The National Interest)
August 14, 2017 - By the Vice President of Lexington Institute Daniel Goure: "Later this year, the U.S. Air Force will select a company to build a new jet trainer designated T-X to replace the aging T-38 Talon. Although not a large procurement, the Air Force plans to acquire just 350 aircraft, it is an important one. One might think that picking a winner would be easy. Yet, there are a lot of factors that need to be considered in the selection of a new advanced jet trainer. Clearly, cost will be an important consideration. The way the Air Force wrote the request for proposal gave many in the aerospace and defense community the sense that the lowest price offering, so long as it met a set of baseline performance standards, would be selected. Yet price should not be the only consideration. Evaluators must also assess a number of risk factors. One of these is technical risk or, said another way, technical maturity. Related to technical risk is production risk. Then there is schedule risk which could also create resource risks if projected budgets fail to materialize or funding is stretched out. "
August 14, 2017
Seven Biggest Reasons America Should Seek Energy Dominance (From Investor’s Business Daily)
August 11, 2017 - By Paul Steidler: "The United States is on the cusp of becoming the world’s dominant energy provider. This has wide-ranging and very positive ramifications. It means more jobs, heightened U.S. manufacturing competitiveness and an improved trade balance. Expanded energy production and exports is also a peaceable way to strengthen America’s global influence."
August 11, 2017
Cyber Threat Data Sharing Needs Refinement
August 11, 2017 - By Constance Douris of Lexington Institute: "Technologies are being interconnected and integrated onto the nation’s electric grid to decrease weaknesses. However, these physical and computerized elements multiply the number of access points for cyber risks, making protection of the grid challenging. If done correctly, sharing cyber threat information eliminates the chances for one cyber threat or attack to affect multiple stakeholders."
OA-X: An Air Force Program Warfighters And Taxpayers Can Do Without (From Forbes)
August 8, 2017 - By Loren Thompson of Lexington Institute: "After studying the concept for over a decade, the Air Force this summer will host a flight demonstration to determine whether off-the-shelf light attack aircraft have anything useful to offer in the way of future capabilities. Officials are thinking mainly of low-cost, slow-moving turboprops equipped for close air support. The idea doesn’t make much sense. First, turboprops won’t survive operation in most places worth going. Second, the Air Force already has a host of other aircraft available for the mission that is more capable. Third, rather than saving money, OA-X (as it is called) will cost the Air Force money it doesn’t have for the next decade or so. Fourth, even in uncontested air space, jets offer numerous performance advantages over turboprops in performing close air support. Finally, the global war on terror seems to be winding down, while the threat of high-end combat with near-peers is growing."
August 8, 2017
Five Fast-Track Options For Blunting North Korea’s Missile Threat To America (from Forbes)
August 7, 2017 - By Loren Thompson of Lexington Institute: "Diplomacy is getting U.S. leaders nowhere in slowing the North Korean missile program, so now Washington will need to consider its military options. Beefing up missile defense of the homeland is much less dangerous than taking offensive action against North Korea. But all of the near-term defensive options for coping with the danger focus on one program: Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD). No other program in the Pentagon’s portfolio can intercept long-range ballistic missiles in the time frame when better defenses will be most urgently needed. So the Trump Administration needs to think in concrete terms about how to quickly make GMD as effective as possible. The most compelling options are increasing the number of interceptors above a planned 44; accelerating development of a redesigned kill vehicle to be carried on the interceptors; upgrading sensors used in discriminating hostile warheads from decoys and debris; building additional missile defense sites, perhaps with mobile launchers; and picking up the pace of testing to assure GMD would function successfully in a crisis. "
August 7, 2017
Anyone but Gary Cohn for Fed Chairman
August 4, 2017 - Martin Hutchinson: "Nearly twelve years ago, on October 24, 2005, I reviewed the potential runners for Fed Chairman and came to the conclusion that the worst possible choice would be Ben Bernanke. Needless to say, President George W. Bush appointed Bernanke the following week. Since Donald Trump bids fair to be a considerably better President than Bush, I have some hopes that this column may not be a perfect negative indicator this time round. So, Mr. President, there are good choices and bad choices for the next Fed Chairman, but above all, avoid your National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn."
August 4, 2017
A Sailor’s Guide to Strategic Planning
July 20, 2017 - By Adam P. Saffer: "The older I get, the more I appreciate simplification. Whether instructions on how to pair wireless devices, driving directions to a meeting place, a recipe for a good meal, or a training event, the simpler the better. For years I worked as a management consultant helping for profit and non-profit firms develop their business strategy. During those years, I read a plethora of books, papers and articles on the subject - each one smarter and often more complicated than the other. Don't get me wrong, there is a tremendous amount of creative, rational, well-researched and well-written literature available; all written by people far smarter than me. Be it vision-based, issue-based, goal-based, or scenario-based, using various tools and structures such as a log frames, strategic maps, balanced scorecards, all offer interesting and valuable perspective. However, if you don't have a Chief Strategy Officer or are not particularly interested in or familiar with the process of strategic planning (which if executed correctly is usually as if not more impactful than the final product), it is hard to determine which model is best suited for your company. Other determining factors include but are not limited to the stage of the business (e.g. start up, early stage SME, rapid growth or expansion phase, preparing to sell, transitioning to a new generation), the industry (e.g. manufacturing, wholesale, retail, services, FMCG, ICT), current market conditions, competitive dynamics, and the company’ approach to differentiation (e.g. high quality/low volume; low quality/high volume, faster, cheaper, greener, a new product)."
July 20, 2017
Britain Adrift
July 20, 2017 - Michael Binyon: "Britain is today like a ship drifting into a storm with no one in charge. As the government begins negotiations to leave the European Union, ministers have started arguing with each other about what Brexit will mean. Without a majority in Parliament and dependent on the fickle support of 10 members from Northern Ireland, the government appears paralysed."
The Destructive Effects of The Charitable Tax Deduction
July 14, 2017 - Martin Hutchinson: "President Trump’s tax plan removes the deduction for state and local taxes, but leaves in place a much worse policy: the charitable tax deduction. As tax policy, the charitable tax deduction is execrable. It favors primarily the very rich and it enables such atrocities as the Clinton Foundation. However, this tax deduction has a subtler undermining effect: it allows the very rich to get away without paying the taxes the rest of us suffer. This exemption from tax is why the rich now vote Left, betraying what should be their class interests. It needs to go – now."
July 14, 2017
Can Emerging Markets Become Competitive?
July 11, 2017 - Martin Hutchinson: "Five years ago, the future for emerging markets seemed set fair. Globalization was driving much of the world’s manufacturing to them, as Western companies sought optimal global supply chains. All they needed to do was avoid selecting lunatic Marxist or Islamist dictators as leaders. Yet the future has changed; globalization is in retreat, though it’s not yet clear how far the retreat will go. However, that does not mean that emerging markets are condemned to long-term penury."
July 11, 2017
The robot revolution resembles the first industrial revolution
July 6, 2017 - Martin Hutchinson: "New technology disrupted working life as never before. A large percentage of the workforce seemed likely to lose its job and maybe never work again. Poverty threatened the displaced workers, who succumbed to addiction and disease. It sounds like a dystopian prediction on the introduction of robots – but it is actually a description of Britain’s problems during the first Industrial Revolution. The parallels are striking and instructive."
July 6, 2017
America Needs More Women Engineers
June 29, 2017 - By Roberta Rincon: "Women represent a small percentage of the total number of engineers in the workforce today. This is not to say that there has not been improvement. In fact, female engineers have more than doubled since 1980 – from 5% to roughly 14% of employed engineers in 2015.[i] Unfortunately, this is still vastly behind what many other STEM fields have seen with regard to gender equity improvements. For example, approximately 48% of biological and life scientists are women."
June 29, 2017
Weaker Britain after the vote
June 28, 2017 - By GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon: "It was a 91-year old woman who summed up Britain’s widespread anger, sense of tragedy and loss of respect for government and authority. The country, she said, was in a “very sombre national mood”. There have been four terrorist attacks in four months, a general election that left the government weak and floundering, the opening of difficult and divisive talks with the European Union and a terrible fire in London that killed around 80 people in a tower block that housed mainly immigrants and poor people."
June 28, 2017
Can we really understand Chinese finance?
June 21, 2017 - By Gabriel C. Unruh: "The Chinese financial system is highly regulated and dominated by government control and intervention, in stark contrast to the mostly-private and relatively unregulated financial system in the U.S. In theory China has extensive regulatory systems in place. However, these systems are weak and not applied evenly throughout the economy. Along with The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, four large government banks control most major financial operations in the country. These four are ..."
June 21, 2017
What Would A President Pence Mean For America’s Military?
June 20, 2017 - By Loren Thompson of Lexington Institute: "If the troubled presidency of Donald Trump ends early, vice president Mike Pence would presumably become president. It doesn’t take much imagination to figure out what that would mean for domestic policy because Pence is a movement conservative who has been remarkably consistent over the years on subjects like abortion and regulation. When it comes to the military, though, Pence’s views are less clear. His father was a decorated combat veteran in Korea and his only son is a lieutenant in the Marine Corps. Pence hails from a region and a tradition that venerates military service. His voting record over six terms in the House was generally hawkish. But like fellow Tea Party alumnus (and White House budget director) Mick Mulvaney, Pence looks like more of a deficit hawk than a defense hawk. In other words, he probably wouldn’t back big increases in military spending unless they could be offset in a way that minimized new federal borrowing. With personnel and readiness always funded first in the Pentagon’s budget, modernization of aging combat systems might lag in a Pence administration — despite his Hoosier-based affinity for heavy manufacturing."
June 20, 2017
Britain Needs Hard Money, Hard Brexit
June 20, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "On June 8, Theresa May’s Conservatives came close to losing an election they should have won easily. The commentariat, all of whom like the Brussels bureaucrats and love the Brussels restaurants, claimed she had lost because of her firmness on Brexit and the Tories’ excessive devotion to fiscal austerity. Actually the Tories, not notably devoted to fiscal austerity, lost because they have tolerated the Bank of England’s appalling monetary sloppiness, with its devastating effect on the economy and on house prices. A hard Brexit and hard money are now needed to right the ship."
The U.S. Military Is Suffering A Crisis Of Strategy, Not Just One Of Readiness
June 19, 2017 - By Dan Goure: "Everyone agrees that the U.S. military has a readiness crisis. Yet more consequential for the future of the U.S. military than its current readiness crisis is the crisis of strategy. The U.S. military has been at war with Islamic terrorism for more than 16 years. The U.S. must confront the reality that it is involved in a conflict which can neither be avoided nor can be won; it is a problem to be managed. The search for victory in the current fight requires an enormous expenditure of resources and lives, adding to the wear and tear on platforms and personnel while, in a budget-constrained environment, draining the military of resources desperately needed to modernize its aging force structure for the fights to come. I have written on the need for a new strategy for The National Interest."
June 19, 2017
After Inconclusive Elections, a Rudderless Britain
June 16, 2017 - By Michael Binyon: "The recent election has led to what many see as the worst of all possible outcomes. The Conservative government failed to win a majority in Parliament, and is trying to remain in office with the help of a handful of socially conservative members of the Democratic Unionist party in Northern Ireland. The opposition Labour party saw a surge in support; but has failed to heal the ideological rift between its left-wing leader and the bulk of its moderate members of Parliament. The ruling Scottish nationalists suffered huge losses and its dreams of Scottish independence now look doomed. The centrist Liberal Democrat party failed to make headway by opposing a “hard Brexit”. The country is now split between north and south, old and young, campaigners for a total break with Europe and those wanting to salvage something from last year’s vote to leave"
June 16, 2017
How Raytheon Will Unlock The Value Of Its Cyber Security Business For Shareholders (From Forbes)
June 15, 2017 - By Loren Thompson of Lexington Institute: "Defense contractor Raytheon is flying high. Its stock is trading near an all-time high, up over 80% since Dr. Thomas A. Kennedy became Chairman & CEO in 2014. E.P.S. rose 21% year-over-year in the first quarter, and Wall Street is noticing. Argus Research says the company's business mix and growth outlook merit a premium valuation. Morningstar says Raytheon is poised "for some of the fastest growth in the defense industry," and despite the recent run-up in share price is 'the least expensive pure-play defense name' "
June 15, 2017
The Information We Create Will Enslave Us
June 12, 2017 - By Martin Hutchinson: "When James Thomson wrote, “Britons never, never, never will be slaves”, the concluding chorus line of “Rule Britannia” in 1740 he did not envisage the coming of the Information Age. Today the accumulation of Big Data on every transaction, even every word uttered electronically, gives governments, notably that of Britain’s Theresa May, powers of enslavement they are likely to misuse. We should not blame governments; the fault is in the information itself, and the solution relies on the world where modern information transmission and storage is no longer possible."
June 13, 2017
Good policy favors the small property-owner
June 8, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "The Financial Times and The Economist have recently taken to issuing fatwas against the Trump Administration’s economic policy, indulging in repeated bouts of “Two Minutes Hate” against the man himself, combined with denunciations of “populism.” Yet “populism” is a term that covers a multitude of sins. In pandering to the prejudices of their journalists and readership, both publications have lost sight of the bedrock of sound economics: strengthening and furthering the interests of the small property-owner."
June 8, 2017
No Serious Discussion About Entitlement Reform In The U.S.
June 2, 2017 - By GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "Much has been said about the first Trump budget recently released. The expected partisan critiques –in fact outcry– focus on proposed cuts in Medicaid and disability benefits. Therefore, this becomes a “cruel budget”, an open attack against weak, low income Americans, and so forth."
June 2, 2017
Europe will Carry on without the U.S. and Britain
June 1, 2017 - By GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon: "Britain chooses a new government in less than two weeks’ time. But the Manchester bombing and the massive security clampdown cast a long shadow over the election. Campaigning was suspended for several days, terrorism and security rose to the top of the agenda, and both the Conservative government and the Labour opposition were left floundering."
June 1, 2017
Buffett rings the bell for the market
May 25, 2017 - By Martin Hutchinson: "Warren Buffett recently announced he had more than doubled his stake in Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and apologized to investors for missing out on Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Alphabet/Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). Presumably, had he been around in July 1720 (he wasn’t quite) he would also have apologized to investors for missing out on the bonanza of the South Sea Bubble. Buffett’s belated rush into the tech sector is about as good a sell signal as you can get."
May 25, 2017
China’s Ambitious “One Belt One Road” Project Will Promote Growth
May 22, 2017 - By Martin Sieff: "Four years after its formal launch in 2013, President Xi Jinping’s “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative continues to quietly generate momentum as one of the most important geostrategic developments of the new millennium. Expressions of skepticism about the OBOR project remain widespread in the Western media. "
May 22, 2017
Why wait 30 years for robot CEOs?
May 11, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "Jack Ma, Chief Executive Officer of the Chinese Internet giant Alibaba, opined last week that in 30 years even CEO jobs would be outsourced to robots. His observation caused qualms in the overstuffed hearts of the cognitive elite, who had thought themselves immune to such vulgarities as replacement through automation. My question is: given the abysmal quality of current corporate top management, what in the world would make us wait so long for that transition to occur?"
May 11, 2017
Washington Must Act Now to Stop North Korean Missiles
May 9, 2017 - By Sean Kennedy: "North Korea’s nuclear capabilities are increasing while Washington fails to fully fund Ground-based Missile Defense (GMD) that could protect the US homeland from a devastating nuclear attack. It is imperative that Congress and the White House act to get GMD ready for the likely event that a hostile state tries to strike the United States."
May 9, 2017
Eisenhower’s ‘Military-Industrial Complex’ Shrinks to 1% Of Economy (from Forbes)
May 8, 2017 - By Loren Thompson of Lexington Institute: "During the early days of the Cold War, the United States had a public and private weapons sector that consumed resources equivalent to 3-4% of gross domestic product. President Eisenhower referred to the industry and its supporters in government as the “military-industrial complex,” hinting that they might exercise undue influence over federal priorities. Perhaps he was right."
May 8, 2017
UK Prime Minister Theresa May playing Russian roulette with new elections
May 3, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "British Prime Minister Theresa May last week called an election for June 8. The purpose is to get herself a larger majority and more time with which to negotiate a Brexit (British exit from the EU) deal. (This must be completed by March 2019; but may involve some interim arrangements.) Since her Conservatives are 20 points ahead of Labour in the opinion polls, the opportunity was too good to miss."
May 3, 2017
GMD: The Only Program That Can Stop A North Korean Nuclear Warhead From Reaching America (From Forbes)
April 28, 2017 - By Loren Thompson: Nuclear weapons are the worst military threat that America faces. A single 500-kiloton warhead exploded over a major U.S. city would destroy or heavily damage all buildings to a radius of three miles, and cause widespread fires to a radius of six miles. Electric grids and other fragile infrastructure would fail for tens of miles in every direction. If it was a big city like New York or L.A., prompt and delayed fatalities would likely exceed a million people. Radiation would render much of the damaged area uninhabitable for years.
April 28, 2017
Five Reasons Trump Won’t Reverse The U.S. Military’s Long Decline (From Forbes)
April 27, 2017 - By GPI Senior Adviser Loren Thompson: "Donald Trump ran for the presidency promising that he would rebuild America’s military. The joint force definitely needs renewal, but after 100 days in office, Trump doesn’t look like the leader who can accomplish it. For starters, the military has been in gradual decline for a long time — roughly two decades — and that isn’t likely to be fully turned around during Trump’s tenure."
April 27, 2017
The end of Europe’s traditional left
April 25, 2017 - By GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon: "The collapse of the Left in the first round of the French presidential election has been spectacular. Not only did Benoit Hamon, the candidate officially representing the Socialist party of President Hollande, receive a derisory 7 per cent of the votes; the firebrand Marxist Jean-Luc Melenchon, whose lively campaigning saw a late surge of support, was also knocked out of the race."
April 25, 2017
Army Needs To Speed Up Efforts To Close Critical Capability Gaps
April 24, 2017 - By Dan Goure of Lexington Institute: "Over the past year the U.S. Army has been conducting a Strategic Portfolio Analysis Review (SPAR) of its 780 weapons and equipment programs. Championed by Army Chief of Staff General Mark Milley, the key requirement of the SPAR is to identify modernization priorities that must be pursued in order to maintain and eventually regain overmatch to credibly deter and defeat near-peer adversaries. Based on the SPAR’s identification of critical capability gaps, the Army’s leadership will decide which programs require immediate attention and resources and which programs can be slowed down or de-scoped to extract resources to be placed against higher priority needs."
April 24, 2017
The Dream Of New U.S. Manufacturing Jobs
April 21, 2017 - Paolo von Schirach: "We know that President Donald Trump pledged to renegotiate (supposedly unfair) trade agreements worldwide with the goal of re-balancing the U.S. trade accounts, while forcing companies to move lost U.S. jobs back to America."
April 21, 2017
How do we fix finance in the U.S.?
April 21, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn, formerly President of Goldman Sachs, startled markets last week by suggesting that the United States should re-impose the Glass-Steagall separation between commercial and investment banking. That is probably desirable on balance. However, this may not be enough. The U.S. and global financial system was already a mess when Glass-Steagall was removed in 1999. We should do more, beyond restoring Glass-Steagall, to restore finance to its proper state."
Humans will avoid the fate of the horses
April 20, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "We are not horses. Yet the Luddite left is telling the story of how the horses lost their jobs after 1900 as a parable of what might happen to most humans as the robots take over all the jobs. In a truly free market, in which government was small and with little power, this would be impossible. The world economy is set up to benefit humanity, not horses, so the market would adjust to robots as a useful new tool to serve humans. Yet we are far enough from a free market today, and government is powerful enough and stupid enough, that the equine nightmare cannot entirely be ruled out. We must thus take steps to avoid being sent to the glue factory."
April 20, 2017
The Achievement School District Model Supports Rigorous Public School Accountability
Testimony of Don Soifer, Before the Nevada Legislature, Assembly Committee on Education (via Lexington Institute)
April 19, 2017
Terrorism
April 16, 2017 - By GPI Senior Adviser, Michael Binyon: "Swedish police have begun questioning the Uzbek driver who rammed his truck into a shop-front in Stockholm, as nervous Swedes wonder whether more of the large number of disaffected Muslim immigrants in their midst are preparing suicide bombings."
April 17, 2017
How to defeat crony capitalism and restore a free market
April 5, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "Paul Ryan’s health care “reform” bill was defeated last week without even receiving a vote in the House of Representatives, in spite of the care he had taken to get input from the health insurance industry. That was the problem. In a crony capitalist system, where bad lobbyist-pushed laws and regulations have poured illicit profits into the pockets of oligopolists, the oligopolists are the last people to consult on how to reform those laws."
April 5, 2017
On a Mission to Learn: My Trip to a Syrian IDP Camp (Part 6)
PART 6 // "What’s Next, in a Few Words" Issue Brief Series by Abdulrahman Y. Idlbi: "If you want to open a school, whether in a refugee camp or not, you don’t have to take a trip similar to the one I had. Just throw a bunch of kids in a room with an adult, a curriculum and a black board, and you’ll be probably fine. However, if you want to empower these kids as learners, that’s a totally different story."
On a Mission to Learn: My Trip to a Syrian IDP Camp (Part 5)
PART 5 // "Day 7 - Adding Colors" Issue Brief Series by Abdulrahman Y. Idlbi: "Recently, Raghad joined us. She lost her leg in an airstrike, and never came to school before. That day her friends invited her and helped her to join us. She looked sad and rarely spoke, but she seemed to enjoy the activity because she kept coming on the next days."
On a Mission to Learn: My Trip to a Syrian IDP Camp (Part 4)
Part 4 // "Elections" The Issue Brief Series by Abdulrahman Y. Idlbi: "We had many new experiences that day. It was snowing all night, and in the morning everything was in white. I was wandering around the camp and soon was engaged in a snow fight with the kids. I noticed some level of aggressiveness by a group of kids against others, including me) and they were telling the kids to go back to where they came from. That was harsh."
On a Mission to Learn: My Trip to a Syrian IDP Camp (Part 3)
Part 3 // "Day 3 - Rolling! Action! Cut!" Issue Brief Series by Abdulrahman Y. Idlbi: "By the of the second day, I met more girls than I started with. I asked them to come early next morning to find some activity to do. When we met in the morning there were ten girls, all new! I asked them how they liked the screening yesterday, and if they wanted to do something similar. They were excited about the idea, but we needed a place to do it. One girl said it was ok to go to her tent. That was lots of girls in a tiny tent"
On a Mission to Learn: My Trip to a Syrian IDP Camp (Part 2)
Part 2 // "Let the Hard Fun Begin" Issue Brief Series by Abdulrahman Idlbi: "Day 1 - Welcome to Qah Refugee Camp! January 5, 2013 afternoon was the time to cross the border back to Qah camp. I had my laptop, camera, two Scratch Sensor Boards, and a MakeyMakey. I wasn’t sure yet what activities I’d do with the kids or what materials to use, so I decided on my way to buy some paper, pencils and coloring pens.[2] Holding a Syrian passport, it was easy to cross the border.[3] I took a cab to Qah camp, and as I arrived I headed directly to the same tent I visited earlier. The kids were a bit surprised to see me again. It was usual to see strangers everyday visiting the camp, taking pictures, promising aid, then leaving, but they’d rarely come back. Refugees considered them somehow as tourists. They ran to their dad, Ahmad, telling him I was back."
On a Mission to Learn: My Trip to a Syrian IDP Camp (Part 1)
Part 1 //"Before You Start" Issue Brief Series by Abdulrahman Y. Idlbi: "This is my report for a trip I made to the Syrian-Turkish border in January 2013. I wanted to explore the refugee communities and know more about the kids there to help with designing learning environments for them. I was learning then, and still I am... I had to make many decisions on the spot, some were smart (I guess), some were not, and you’ll find me inferring and making conclusions throughout the text... "
April 4, 2017
Business Development Services or “BDS” not working in the Developing World
April 3, 2017 - By GPI Senior Adviser Adam Saffer: "Historically across the developing world, the donor community invested significant amounts of money to promote small-scale enterprises with Business Development Services, (BDS), providers acting as the agents of governments and the donor community. However, it became increasingly clear by the mid-1990s that these subsidized programs had not achieved much success in terms of outreach and impact, nor were they self-sustaining."
April 3, 2017
Say No to Scottish and Catalonian independence!
April 3, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "In general I am in favor of self-determination for small nations. I would have been on South Carolina’s side in 1861, (though not on the issue of slavery, obviously), and in 1991 I was on the side of Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia and the other dissolving parts of the former Yugoslavia. However, in today’s world it has become more difficult for small nations to be economically self-sustaining, so they need to be a member of a larger grouping. The problem is to find a grouping that is large enough, crosses no cultural fault lines, and yet offers an adequate measure of influence over the central bureaucracy to preserve rights, freedoms and local culture. The United Kingdom, Spain and the former Austria-Hungary pass these tests; the former Yugoslavia and the European Union fail them."
How White House Budgeting Director Mick Mulvaney Sabotaged Trump’s Defense Spending Increase (From Forbes)
March 31, 2017 - By GPI Senior Adviser Loren Thompson: "President Trump has made rebuilding America’s military one of his top priorities. He says it is more important than controlling budget deficits. However, that is not the way White House budgeting director Mick Mulvaney apparently sees it. He has structured proposed defense spending increases for the current fiscal year and next year in a manner that makes them almost impossible to pass on Capitol Hill. Among other things, they would require Democrats in the Senate to go along with repealing a law capping defense outlays even though Mulvaney proposes to fund the military increases by slashing domestic programs important to the party. That’s the exact opposite of what Democrats have said would be required to win their buy-in on more defense spending."
March 31, 2017
Why Is Montenegro Joining NATO A Big Deal?
March 31, 2017 - By GPI President Paolo von Schirach, "With the US Senate approving by a huge margin Montenegro entering NATO, the US-led security pact, (only 2 senators opposed), soon enough this small country, once a region of the former Yugoslavia, will join the western military alliance created on April 4, 1949 with the Treaty of Washington. In “normal” times, this tiny NATO enlargement should not be an event that would move the needle one way or the other."
China to Become Green Super Power?
March 17, 2017 - By GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "Many Western environmentalists and commentators openly praise China for its declared energy policy objective of turning itself into a truly “Green Super Power”. They claim that, unlike Trump’s America, (ignorant and backward), China (smart and forward-looking) truly understands the threat of global warming, and is actually doing something very serious about it."
March 17, 2017
Washington needs major productivity growth to pay the bills
March 17, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "Crunch time is here for the Trump administration, and for us all. President Trump’s economic policies, in particular his plans for drastic deregulation, (in parallel with a rise in interest rates led by the Fed), if they work as advertised, will produce a surge in productivity growth that will allow the United States to pay the bills coming due. However, if the productivity growth does not materialize, or if other less benign Trump policies pull the global economy off course, it is difficult to see how we can avoid economic collapse and universal debt default. Things could genuinely go either way."
Facing Low Oil Prices Exxon Is Looking For New Strategies
March 16, 2017 - By GPI President Paolo von Schirach "Major oil companies are in deep trouble. Too much global supply means lower crude prices. If this continues –and there is every little evidence that it will not– this means that large exploration projects in far away lands that typically require large up front investments may no longer have economic justifications. Simply stated, these projects mean too much money invested now for potentially weak or even negative returns years from now."
March 16, 2017
Where is all the malinvestment in the US economy?
March 15, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson , We have had eight, nearly nine years of zero interest rates and negative real interest rates. You don’t have to be a convinced Austrian economist to believe that in this length of time an extraordinary amount of “malinvestment” – investment that is not justified by economic reality – has piled up. Now that interest rates seem to be rising, that malinvestment will collapse, losing lenders’ and investors’ money."
March 15, 2017
Aircraft Carriers: The Unique Value of America’s Most Famous Combat System
Research Report by GPI Senior Adviser Loren Thompson of Lexington Institute: "Aircraft Carriers: The Unique Value of America’s Most Famous Combat System"
March 6, 2017
Wellness Programs Will Transform US Health care
March 6, 2017 - By GPI President Paolo von Schirach - "Undoing Obamacare is proving to be a lot more complicated than what confident President Trump (and the Republicans in Congress) had anticipated. The problem is that it turns out that most Americans want universal health insurance and affordable health coverage –the promise of Obamacare. But they do not want to pay what it costs to obtain medical care in our horrendously complicated and super expensive system."
Strategies for Improving Charter School Facilities Funding
Research Report by Kristen Nye Larson: "Costs associated with accessing and maintaining viable facilities can present an expensive hurdle for public charter schools. This paper discusses five strategies in use in different jurisdictions to support charter schools by reducing the cost and challenges related to facilities."
February 27, 2017
In A Time Of Rising Nationalism, Boeing Becomes The Model Of What An American Company Should Be
February 27, 2017 - By GPI Senior Adviser Loren Thompson, "In the three months since Donald Trump was elected president, no corporate executive has interacted more with him than Boeing Chairman & CEO Dennis Muilenburg. Trump apparently has concluded that the nation’s biggest exporter is a model for how he would like other U.S. manufacturers to behave. And with good reason: in 2016, for the fifth consecutive year, Boeing delivered more jetliners than Airbus without the benefit of government subsidies that its European rival receives."
Britain divided over Trump’s visit
February 27, 2017 - By GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon, "Britain’s parliament this week debated an issue it has never considered before: whether to deliver a calculated snub to a foreign leader by denying him an invitation to address both houses of parliament. The statesman is Donald Trump, who is due to make a controversial state visit to Britain in a month’s time. And parliament has been forced to consider the discourtesy of banning him because almost two million Britons have signed a petition protesting at his visit, thus automatically triggering a debate."
Burying the Memories of the Bolshevik Revolution
February 20, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Sieff: "This year marks the centennial anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution and the birth of the Soviet Union. In a different scenario we might have expected an enormous, endless series of parades, celebrations, regrets and pageantry to engulf the largest country on earth."
February 20, 2017
Army Warns Congress Its Budget Behavior Will Get Soldiers Killed
February 16, 2017 - by GPI Senior Adviser Loren Thompson: "Congress hasn’t managed to complete a federal budget in time for the beginning of the new fiscal year since 1997. The partisan dysfunction that has discredited Capitol Hill in the eyes of many voters is so serious that it threatens to get soldiers killed. That’s what the vice-chief of staff of the Army told congressional armed-services committees last week, warning that his own service may be forced to send soldiers into combat that are under-trained and poorly equipped for lack of money."
February 16, 2017
Reform the Federal Reserve before de-regulating banks
February 13, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "President Trump has promised financial de-regulation, and has hired the former Chief Operating Officer of Goldman Sachs, Gary Cohn, to design it. Given Goldman’s sorry record over the last decade that should worry us. It should worry us even more when we consider that there is no sign of a change in Fed policies, so that the “funny money” trend that caused the 2008 financial crash and subsequent malfeasances is still in full effect. Without reforming the Fed, de-regulating banks will be largely counterproductive."
February 13, 2017
No Economic Growth Without Clear Property Rights
February 13, 2017 - By Paolo von Schirach: "The almost unanimous mission statement of key International Financial Institutions (IFIs) devoted to development, along with national development agencies and their many private and public sector partners is that they are all united in a major effort “to fight poverty”, or at least “reduce poverty” around the world. Well, may be so. But if this is indeed their goal, they are not focusing on one of the most important issues –may be the most important– that prevents poor countries to get out of poverty."
NASA Space Launch System Opens Pathway To Mars — And Thousands Of Jobs On Earth (From Forbes)
February 9, 2017 - By Loren Thompson: "The companies that supply NASA’s project to one day send astronauts to Mars will be holding their annual conference in the nation’s capital next week. Collectively, they and their federal customer employ over 10,000 workers on the project, the twin centerpieces of which are a huge rocket called the Space Launch System and a crew vehicle called Orion. If you were going to build a case for why our nation still contains the seeds of greatness, this is where your story would begin."
February 10, 2017
Retreating from the global economy?
February 8, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "The last couple of weeks have been full of events justifying predictions I made over the years, which is very gratifying. My 2010 prediction talked about the possibility of de-globalization. Remarkably, that prediction appears to be coming to pass. I thus thought it worthwhile to look at how far the de-globalization trend might go, and whether it, unlike globalization, will be permanent."
February 8, 2017
The Crisis of the Democratic Party and the New Political Map of America
February 6, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Sieff: "In the 2016 presidential election, Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton only won 232 Electoral College votes to 306 amassed by her successful opponent, Republican Donald Trump: Yet Clinton received 2.8 million votes more than Trump nationwide."
February 6, 2017
Trump looks like a McKinley Republican
February 2, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "In the first week of Donald Trump’s Presidency, it is becoming clearer what kind of President he will be. There are elements of Andrew Jackson – Democrats now know how John Quincy Adams’ acolytes felt when a drunken mob of Jackson’s supporters ransacked the White House. While Trump is no racist economic illiterate, as Jackson was, his election does indeed mark a sharp break from the recent past, as did Jackson’s. The era of Ronald Reagan and the two Bush Presidents now looks like the anomaly, and we are returning to the traditional Republicanism of William McKinley."
February 2, 2017
End state monopolies in education!
January 30, 2017 - By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "Donald Trump’s Education Secretary nominee Betsy DeVos is getting flak from both sides – from the left because she is not fully committed to unionized public education, from the right because she appears at least neutral on the “Common Core” national standards mandated by the Obama administration. Education is important – it is how we pass on our civilization to the next generation. Accordingly, we should fight monopolies, whether structural from the public sector or intellectual from the “treasonous clerks” of academia. It is to be hoped that Ms. DeVos both understands this and does something substantial about it."
January 30, 2017
Can Russia and Turkey bring peace to war devastated Syria?
January 30, 2017 - By GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon: "The peace conference on the future of Syria opened in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan. The hosts, Russia and Turkey, will attempt to find a framework to end the brutal Syrian civil war that has already cost an estimated 500,000 lives and turned some 13 million Syrians into refugees."
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have been unable to turn Democratic majorities into winning governing strategies
By GPI Fellow Martin Sieff: "The Democratic Party in the United States is the oldest and most long-lasting political party on earth, whether one chooses to date its actual founding at the beginning of the 19th century by such luminaries as Thomas Jefferson, Aaron Burr and the Tammany Hall political organization in New York City, or its successful ascent to national power with the triumph of Democratic voting rights for white males in Andrew Jackson’s victorious election campaign in 1828."
January 27, 2017
The U.S. and European reactions to Russian political manipulation
By GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon: "Europe is watching events in Washington with bemused horror. The lurid claims about Donald Trump’s sexual antics during the campaign, the furious denunciations by the president-elect of America’s intelligence agencies, news outlets and political opponents, and the wrangling and confusion among his appointees over Russia all suggest a presidency that looks potentially dysfunctional before it has even begun. If Europe was hoping to start forging a cautious relationship with Mr. Trump, it now hardly knows where to begin."
January 21, 2017
How can jihadists be recruited? Western intelligence services need new approaches
By Samer Libdeh: " The current wave of radicalization among large numbers of Muslim youth in Europe and in the U.S. is forcing Western intelligence services to reconsider their approach to tackling jihadism, though this would not be without controversy."
January 17, 2017
Oil Prices Will Go Down But U.S. Shale Will Survive
By GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "After the oil production cuts recently announced first by OPEC and then non OPEC oil producers, oil prices rallied. This is because supply cuts must mean tighter markets and therefore higher prices. Well, looking at what most energy sector analysts say, this idea of a sustained oil rally is a dream that will soon end. And this is because there are too many exemptions to these announced cuts, too many special cases and too many opportunities to cheat, since rather modest total production cuts are to be spread thinly among many producers."
January 11, 2017
Shaky Europe unable to pursue the old integration project
By GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon: "Will the European Union survive the coming year? It faces unprecedented challenges. Not only will its members have to begin the difficult and possibly acrimonious talks with Britain on the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU; but key governments –France and Germany among others-- also face elections at home in which populist right-wing parties are likely to make big gains and demand changes in the way the EU is run."
January 3, 2017
The Obama Foreign Policy Record
By GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "The almost universally accepted narrative dished out daily by the serious, high brow U.S. media is that come January 20, 2017, with Donald Trump as President, we shall have 4 years of “Amateur Hour” in U.S. foreign policy. This dismal prospect is of course a far cry from the thoughtful, insightful and properly balanced foreign policy agenda expertly crafted and implemented by President Barack Obama and his top-notch foreign and national security policy team."
January 2, 2017
US Electoral College
By GPI Fellow Martin Hutchinson: "On December 19, 2016, the Electoral College elected Donald Trump President, with only modest “faithless” votes for candidates who did not run on November 8. Before the vote, there were claims that the Electoral College, in voting for the candidates selected by the public, was not fulfilling Alexander Hamilton’s vision set out in Federalist 68. This year, those claims were clearly an attempt to subvert the election, and did not reflect two centuries of constitutional evolution. But could that constitutional evolution have gone in a different direction?"
Trump Seeks Real U.S. Reset with Russia – Biggest Obstacles in Washington
By GPI Fellow Martin Sieff: "US President-elect Donald Trump can be taken at his word about his sincerity in wanting to restore good relations with Russia: He is certain to find welcome potential partners in Moscow; but his greatest difficulties with implementing such a policy will be in Washington, DC."
December 31, 2016
No Real Development Without Economic Growth – Part 2
By GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "International development practitioners focus on policies through which they can eliminate or alleviate poverty, the visible manifestation of underdevelopment, rather than planting the seeds that may foster self-sustaining economic growth and therefore true development –which is, by the way, the only proven way for any society to really get out of poverty. This “poverty alleviation is our goal” approach, while well intentioned, encourages the misallocation and outright waste of limited financial and human resources, all in the name of the noble cause of the “fight against poverty”."
December 29, 2016
No Real Development Without Economic Growth – Part 1
By GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "International development is generally defined by practitioners of this craft as “the fight against poverty“. I totally disagree with this approach that focuses on poverty, the practical manifestation of lack of economic growth, instead of dealing with the real problem that I define as: “What does it take to get sustained growth, since growth is the prerequisite for economic and social progress in all societies”? "
Donald Trump And Nuclear Weapons
By GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "Casual talk about nuclear weapons and their possible use is not recommended. Likewise, tough remarks about not being outspent by opponents on nuclear weapons procurement and deployments may create anxiety and fears about “arms races” and a path to war within the general public; but they do not amount to a clearly delineated new nuclear strategy."
Trump needs to shape difficult relationship with China
By GPI fellow Martin Sieff: "US President-elect Donald Trump faces a long, difficult road, fraught with pitfalls, in seeking to redefine the symbiotic relationship between the United States and China that has developed over the past 40 years. That process has already begun: But it did not get off to a good start."
December 26, 2016
US Public Education In Crisis
By GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "The international student proficiency scores gathered under the auspices of the Program for International Student Assessment, (also known as PISA), tell us a sad story about the state of U.S. public education. Simply stated, compared to the rest of the developed world, US kids do poorly in math and barely within average in other key subjects. How can America remain the world economic leader in this hyper competitive global knowledge economy, when U.S. school children do not know basic math?"
December 21, 2016
Has Trump discovered new trade truths?
By Martin Hutchinson : "President-elect Donald Trump’s deal with Carrier rescued some 800 jobs in the state of Indiana at a cost of some $7 million in tax breaks and other subsidies. The deal was immediately attacked, often by commentators whose devotion to the free market had never previously been detected."
December 18, 2016
The Case for keeping the Electoral College
BY GPI Fellow Martin Sieff: "One would expect the US Electoral College to be under more widespread attack after it delivered a second US president with a clear minority of the national vote in two out of the past five national elections."
The rising European right threatens the EU project
By GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon: "A resounding referendum defeat for the government. Matteo Renzi, Italy’s Prime Minister, resigns. The pressure mounts on Italy’s cash-strapped banks. The euro falls sharply in value. Europe’s leaders take fright. Is the wave of right-wing populism sweeping across the West now unstoppable?"
December 13, 2016
Russian Disinformation Campaign and its Impact on the 2016 Election
By GPI Forward Host Tai Ragan: "Wikileaks revelations and the proliferation of “fake news” are but a few instances of propaganda aimed at damaging Hillary Clinton in the recent U.S. presidential campaign. That said, propaganda is not a novel political tool. For as long as we have records of history, we have told each other fake or exaggerated stories about ourselves and about others."
December 9, 2016
Mass Produced Electric Cars? Sooner Than You Think
By GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "The still unresolved issue that will determine if and when there will be real mass demand for Electric Vehicles, EVs, is how to design and manufacture cheaper, lighter batteries for EVs with a higher energy reservoir, and therefore capable of traveling longer distances with one electric charge."
November 30, 2016
How The US Fed Damaged The American Economy
By GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "I indicated a while back that whoever would be elected President of the United States on November 8 –Clinton or Trump– it was unlikely that she or he would have the fortitude and the political backing enabling her/him to seriously focus on the real, yet silent systemic crisis affecting the U.S. economy: artificially depressed interest rates. I still hold this opinion."
November 18, 2016
Will Brexit Happen?
By GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon: "Will Brexit ever happen? Ever since Britain voted in June to leave the European Union, the government has been in turmoil, uncertain how to proceed. Angry disputes have erupted between those who want a total break with Europe and those who want to retain trade and other links. Now, in a devastating judgement from Britain’s High Court, the Prime Minister has been told that she cannot begin the process of leaving the EU without consulting Parliament. And Parliament could easily veto all her plans."
November 14, 2016
In The Age of the Internet Biased News Still Prevails
By GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "Here is one big paradox for you. When the internet proved to be a truly revolutionary innovation, everybody concluded that this technology is a game changer affecting the global communications sector in a fundamental way. More specifically, many argued that the ability to see and quickly report (thanks to the internet) on facts as they are, in real time, all over the world, in many cases at essentially zero cost, would make it a lot more difficult for the bad guys to lie about anything."
November 4, 2016
The Tragedy Of The Uneducated Poor in America
By GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "Much has been said about the “crisis” of American public education. Indeed, if we look at the ranking of American high school kids compared to their peers in other developed countries, they do rather poorly in terms of academic achievement. In fact their performance is so bad that one wonders how on earth can America be and stay a leader in sophisticated technologies, innovation and business creation since its young people seem to be chronic under achievers."
November 3, 2016
For Syrian Refugees Learning English is a Key to Survival
By GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon: "Can the English language save Syrian refugees from extremism? Across Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, thousands of young men and women, driven from their homeland by violence and fighting, are learning the language they hope will open the doors to jobs, money, opportunity and peace. And with every step achieved, every hope kindled, the chances for Islamic State to lure frustrated young refugees into its extremist ranks are reduced."
November 1, 2016
Are Referenda Tools of Democracy?
By GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon: "Is there anything more democratic than a referendum? It allows a government to consult the entire electorate on any major issue. It means that each citizen has a say on constitutional changes or decisions that will change a country’s life. It produces a result that reflects the public mood more clearly than any decision taken by a small group of elected parliamentarians."
October 20, 2016
America Needs More Innovation
By GPI President Paolo von Schirach, "Whatever has been said and promised by Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in this extremely acrimonious 2016 presidential campaign, in the end America’s long-term future and prosperity rests on its ability to continue producing commercially viable technological innovation."
First Comes Growth Then New Jobs
By GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "Every day I walk by a giant banner hanging from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce imposing building in Washington, DC., located near the White House. The banner says: “Jobs & Growth”. On the face of it, nothing wrong with this statement. Of course we all want to have more jobs and more growth. if both things happen, we shall all be better off as a nation."
October 3, 2016
Is Exxon’s Obfuscation About Climate Change A Crime?
By GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "Here is the thing. We know now that ExxonMobil’s internal documents reveal that experts working for the company years ago admitted that burning fossil fuels would cause unwanted higher temperatures, and therefore climate change."
September 29, 2016
How worried Europe plans to deal with a Trump presidency
By GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon: "Europeans have made it overwhelmingly clear that they neither like nor trust Donald Trump. Polls show that on average, 85 per cent of those asked have no confidence that, were the Republican contender to win the presidential election, he would do the right thing. In Sweden, that figure rises to 92 per cent."
September 9, 2016
Turkey is an indispensable NATO Ally
By Hasan Karaburk, "Turkey joined NATO in 1952, just three years after it was first established. Since then Turkey has always been a faithful ally, always a strong supporter of NATO’s founding mission. Turkey participated in all Alliance-led security activities. And Turkey’s contribution is quite significant. After the United States, Turkey has the second largest NATO standing army."
August 26, 2016
Brexit Decision Throws Ominous Shadows over Britain’s Future
By GPI Fellow Martin Sieff: "Almost two months after the British public voted by a referendum margin of 52 percent to 48 percent to leave the European Union, the sky has not yet fallen on London. It may indeed be another two or three years before that might happen."
August 22, 2016
Can the West deal with Putin’s unpredictable policy shifts?
By GPI Senior Adviser Michael Binyon: "Is Putin preparing for fresh military action in Ukraine? That is a question now being urgently asked in Washington as well as Kiev. In the past week, Russia has stepped up a war of words against Ukraine, accusing saboteur of infiltrating Crimea and killing a Russian soldier and a policeman in the Russian-occupied peninsula. An alleged Ukrainian agent was paraded on Russian television, and Kiev was accused of setting up a spy network in Crimea."
Towards Smart Cities
By GPI Fellow Murat Kuzlu: "The smart city concept consists of various key areas such as transportation, education, healthcare, e-governance, public security and energy. The smart energy/smart grid is one of most important areas to reach sustainable city mission in this concept. It is shown that advanced smart grid applications and a CI-based BEMS architecture will have an important contribution to reach sustainable cities in terms of energy efficiency, energy savings, and peak reduction."
August 3, 2016
Vertical Urban Farming Is About To Happen
By GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "Over the years farming has become much more efficient. It has been heavily mechanized. Therefore it is far less labor intensive. Good roads, (at least in the developed world), cold storage systems, modern distribution centers, computerized logistics networks, and a lot more make sure that your lettuce moves rather rapidly from the farm to the supermarket shelf."
July 28, 2016
Turkey: The coup attempt and the future of democracy
By GPI Analyst Cenk Karatas: "As shocking as it sounds, Turkey, a NATO member and a rare democracy in the Middle East, experienced an attempted coup a few days ago, on Friday, July 15." By GPI Analyst Cenk Karatas: "At around 10 pm local time, when millions of people were out enjoying a warm summer night, or at home with their families, both bridges across the Bosphorus Strait in Istanbul were blocked by military vehicles manned by dozens of soldiers."
July 18, 2016
Italy Overwhelmed by Poor African Immigrants
Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach: "Italy has two major demographic problems. Both of them carry bad outcomes. Italy is the destination of too many immigrants from poor countries in Africa and the Middle East; while its native population is shrinking due to extremely low fertility rates. In plain language: not enough new babies."
July 12, 2016
Can Brexit Be Reversed?
Issue Brief by GPI President Paolo von Schirach on aftermath of Brexit: "Looking at the reactions of sadness and disbelief in Britain to the results of the Brexit vote, I am beginning to feel that the end of this England/EU tragedy (farce?) has not been written, yet. (On this, see also Gideon Rachman’s reflections in The Financial Times). By that I mean that a new London-Brussels compromise may be negotiated and struck that will allow Britain to stay in the EU, albeit with a few new qualifications regarding its membership."
July 1, 2016
The Road ahead for the UK after the Brexit Earthquake
Issue Brief by GPI Senior Advisor Michael Binyon on Brexit: “Brexit earthquake”, “catastrophe”, “independence”, “chaos” – the headlines have been dramatic, frightening and ominous. They reveal a country in turmoil: Britain’s Prime Minister, David Cameron, resigned within hours of the referendum result giving victory to the Leave campaign. On Sunday 11 members of the Labour shadow cabinet resigned, calling on Jeremy Corbyn, the party leader to step down accusing him of showing no leadership in a referendum that was disastrous for his party. And in Scotland, the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has promised a new referendum on Scottish independence, saying that Scots, who voted by a large majority to remain in Europe, were determined to remain in the EU and would break away from the United Kingdom if that wish was thwarted."
June 28, 2016
Will Brexit open up a debate on the future of Europe?
Issue Brief by Paolo von Schirach on Brexit: "The most improbable is now reality. Great Britain opted out of Europe. What does this Brexit vote mean? it means as a minimum that the grandiose European Project that was supposed to have already created a "Continental Symphony" with all EU members playing harmoniously together, in order to praise the virtue of a strongly felt "European Unity" was and is in fact a dream."
June 25, 2016
Unrealistic Plans To Stop African Migration Into Europe
Issue Brief by Paolo von Schirach: "How can Europe stop the endless tide of poor migrants arriving daily from Africa? Very simple, argues Matteo Renzi, Italy's Prime Minister. The EU will offer a "Migration Compact" to the poor African states. "
June 7, 2016
Violent Revolutionary Instruments: An Overview
Issue Brief by Vittorfranco Pisano:"In the presence of socio-political upheavals currently afflicting the Middle East and North Africa, but whose final outcome remains uncertain, this is an opportune time to consider the nature of revolution, with particular reference to violent revolutionary instruments."
May 31, 2016
Can the European Union Save Schengen?
Issue Brief by Michael Binyon: "Is the European Union’s deal with Turkey for visa-free travel in Europe the death blow for Europe’s open borders? Can the Schengen agreement, lifting passport controls at internal frontiers across the continent, survive the agreement to allow almost 80 million Turks to travel to Europe without visas?"
Europe and the ISIL Threat
Issue Brief by Metehan Demir: "In the aftermath of the 9/11 terror attacks against U.S. soil, Europe seemed willing to follow the American strategy of targeting the terrorists in their strongholds. To further these goals, Europe contributed limited military assets for U.S. led operations in Afghanistan and then Iraq."
May 26, 2016
The Impact of False and Misleading Economic Data
Issue Brief by Paolo von Schirach: "We are used to hear that we live in a “data driven” world. Thanks to ICT and the computing power explosion, it is now possible to gather, streamline and organize millions, in fact billions of bits of information on consumers’ preferences, economic sectors’ performance, credit flows, and a lot more. All this intelligently organized and sifted data provides precious information that will influence, in fact will determine investments, marketing strategies, purchases, and even the pitch of political campaigns.
May 12, 2016
Dealing With Depressed Oil Prices
Issue Brief by Paolo von Schirach: "I am not at all surprised to see that the Doha oil talks aimed at finding an agreement among major producers about stabilizing output failed. Saudi Arabia would have liked to freeze production at current levels, which means at the Kingdom’s highest output in modern times, (more than 10 million barrels a day)."
May 2, 2016
The Moral Case for Capitalism
Issue Brief by Paolo von Schirach: "Here is a real shortcoming in American politics. In this critical election year no candidate from either party has been able to articulate in a simple, clear and cogent manner the moral case for free market capitalism."
April 28, 2016
Is the Refugee Deal Between Turkey and EU Going to Hold?
Issue Brief by Cenk Karatas: "The March 18 agreement between Turkey and the EU for the readmission into Turkey of "irregular" Syrian and other migrants so far has been implemented on a limited scale. Since April 4, a few hundred migrants were readmitted into Turkey, and about one hundred Syrian refugees have been placed in a few EU countries."
April 22, 2016
Queen Elizabeth’s Long Reign and the Future of the British Monarchy
Issue Brief by Michael Binyon: "Soldiers in their red tunics and fur hats played happy birthday, the crowds sang and the Queen, sprightly and smiling and probably glad for the change from the solemn national anthem, walked past the cheering crowd to chat and acknowledge the congratulations."
April 21, 2016
NATO in the Twenty-First Century
Issue Brief by Bruce Weinrod: "Since its very inception and until the present day critics have questioned whether the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is important, or indeed even necessary. These critics, however, overlook the fundamental importance to international security of a standing multilateral organization with strong and flexible core military capabilities."
April 20, 2016
International Financial Institutions Raising the Game: From Billions to Trillions
Issue Brief by Eugene Spiro: "The world’s leading international financial institutions (IFIs) announced, last year, a new, coordinated strategy designed to substantially strengthen their support toward achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals."
April 18, 2016
Why Does US ‘Liberation’ Make Drug Problems in Nations from Afghanistan to Ukraine Far Worse?
Issue brief by Martin Sieff: "Does liberation and subsequent occupation by US forces fan the flames of drug addiction and “integrate” previously insulate nations into the global or international drug economy? The question is an embarrassing one, but the data to support this contention appears irrefutable: Because it comes from the US government itself."
April 15, 2016
What Happens If Britain Leaves the European Union?
Issue Brief by Michael Binyon: "Is Britain about to destroy the European Union? If British voters opt in June for “Brexit” – Britain’s exit from the EU – the shock waves could mean that the 28-member union will swiftly unravel."
April 11, 2016